Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions for Oregon vs. Washington State

We new enter the second half of the season for the Oregon Ducks, and though the last week saw the first loss of the 2023 season come, every goal that Dan Lanning and his team had coming into this year is still very attainable.

A trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game? That can happen. A spot in the College Football Playoff? it could be in the cards if the Ducks can win out from here. With six games down, and six more regular season games to go, there is still plenty possible for this Oregon squad.[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]

That starts this coming week with a homecoming game against the Washington State Cougars. Though it’s a matchup that has lost a little bit of luster after the Cougars dropped their last two games, it’s still one that will present a challenge for Oregon, with QB Cameron Ward bringing his unique rushing ability to Autzen to try and upset the Ducks.

To preview the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel and Miles Dwyer made predictions and offered opinions on what we might see.

Here is your sixth regular-season Ducks Wire roundtable of the 2023 season. Enjoy.

Question:  I know that it’s old news at this point, but let’s focus on Oregon’s Week 7 game vs. Washington for a second before moving on. In general, do you feel better or worse about the Ducks after that loss?

I can’t help but feel better about the Ducks after this game. Going into Saturday, we didn’t really know for certain how good Oregon was because they hadn’t played many decent teams yet. Now they’ve played an established great team in the Huskies, and they arguably outplayed them for much of the game, minus three fourth-down conversions. This Oregon team can play with the best of the best, and as long as they execute down the stretch, should be able to find a way to win many of those games as well.

The only thing that makes me feel worse is that the road to the College Football Playoff is harder now than it would be if Oregon had won. But as for the team itself, I don’t feel any worse about the Ducks. They played a phenomenal game in one of the toughest environments in the nation. The Oregon offense navigated the Huskies’ defense in a variety of ways, and the defense held their own against arguably the best offense in the country. So, if anything, I feel better about the Ducks after last week.

Question: You’re Dan Lanning, do you go for it on all three of those 4th downs? Are there any that you would have done something differently?

Personally, I punt the ball on 4th and 3 from the 47. I know that’s actually the 4th down call that most people agreed with the most, but I just can’t get over the idea that in a half when your defense had played incredibly well thus far, giving Michael Penix Jr. 80-plus yards to drive with no timeouts in 2 minutes was advantageous. I understand why you go for it, though, and I certainly respect the decision. As for the other two 4th downs, I am fine with Lanning’s decisions. He’s an ultra-aggressive coach and it often works out. No need to change things when the moment is this big.

I know that I wouldn’t go for it all three times, but that doesn’t mean they were the wrong decisions, it just means I would’ve been too scared to roll the dice. If the Ducks converted just one of those fourth downs, they’d have put themselves in a great position to win the game. Two of the three 4th down play calls were similar — a Bo Nix rollout towards the boundary — and I do think I would’ve switched things up if I were at the helm, but overall, I’m not upset with the decisions by Lanning.

Question:  It seems like we are headed for a rematch between UO and UW in the Pac-12 title game. Which team in the conference do you think has the best opportunity to ruin that rematch opportunity?

I can’t help but feel that Oregon State is just quietly lurking without many people talking about them, and it’s right where they want to be. The Beavers have a really solid offense and a solid defense. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they end up beating either Washington or Oregon this year and making it so we don’t get a rematch in the conference title game.

While USC’s offense is still scary, the team I think has the best chance to play spoiler for the Ducks is Utah. The Utes haven’t lost a game at home since November of 2020 when they lost to USC and are 17-0 in Rice-Eccles stadium since. I know they’re likely still without Cam Rising, but they are still a scary team to play, especially on the road.

Question: We wrote about true freshman Iapani Laloulu this week and his high upside at Oregon. Which true freshman or true sophomore encourages you the most on this team?

It feels like a chalky answer, but I’ve got to say Matayo Uiagalelei. He possessed so much talent coming to Oregon as a fringe 5-star prospect, and so far it feel like Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi have tossed him into the deep end to see what he could do. So far, he’s swimming quite nicely and has been a key pressure applier on pass-rushing downs. I can’t wait to see what he can do with another year of experience under his belt.

I’m a huge Cole Martin fan. Since his enrollment last spring, coaches have highlighted him as one of the hardest workers on the team, and as having a very bright future. In the Spring game, Martin made one of the most exciting plays of the day when he laid a hard-hit in the backfield. This season, he’s gotten into a few games and made some plays. I think in a few years, we could very well be talking about Cole Martin like Christian Gonzalez and Khyree Jackson.

Question: Containing the QB run is going to be the biggest key for Oregon this week against Cam Ward. The Ducks have only played one true rushing QB this year in Tyler Shough, and he had some success on Oregon’s defense. Do you trust the Ducks to step up in this facet of the game on Saturday?

I’ve been impressed by everything else I’ve seen this Oregon defense do, so I don’t know why I wouldn’t expect them to improve when it comes to stopping the QB run after a tough showing in Week 2 against Tyler Shough. This defense has shown a great ability to make adjustments so far, so I do think that they will be able to contain Ward on Saturday.

I think it will need to be a point of emphasis in the defensive game plan because of how successful Shough was earlier this year and how successful Ward was last year, but I do have confidence the Ducks’ defense can stop Ward from scrambling too effectively on Saturday. After seven weeks of football, Oregon’s overall run defense looks loads better than it did in Week 2 against Texas Tech, so I think they’ll be much more equipped to handle a mobile QB now than they were in early September.

Question: What area of Oregon’s game is in need of the biggest bounce back and confidence boost in this game vs. Washington State?

I think that this could be a big game in terms of regaining confidence for Oregon’s secondary. It’s not that they played a bad game vs. Washington, but rather that they played some of the best receivers in the nation. Having a chance to go up against some lesser competition and coming away with more victories in 1-on-1 situations will certainly help build some confidence for this unit that has been very successful, for the most part, this season.

I don’t know that Oregon should be looking at this game as a chance to “bounce back.” Yes, they lost at Washington, but they played very good football in that game. Bo Nix made the point after the game point after the game that as a team you can do everything right, but ”Sometimes you lose.” Oregon did lose, but they shouldn’t lose any confidence in their ability to play football and win games.

Question: Gambling Corner. You know the drill. $100 to spend on the spread (Oregon -20.5), the Moneyline (Oregon -1200, WSU+750) or the Over/Under (62.5). Where are you allocating your capital?

The Ducks are 5-0-1 against the spread this year, so I’m going to keep riding that train. Give me $50 on Oregon to cover 20.5 points, and the other $50 on the over. I think that the Ducks are going to put up a lot of points in this game with the Cougars’ defense leaving some to be desired.

I feel like I do this every week, but I’m taking the Oregon Ducks to cover the spread. Washington State has struggled on offense in recent weeks and I think the Ducks’ defense will be even harder for the Cougars to figure out. I also think Bo Nix and the Oregon offense should be able to pick apart the Washington State defense, which should lead to a win by at least three TDs.

Question:  Final Score Prediction. Who wins this game?

Give me Oregon in a big win, 49-17.