F1 Monaco Grand Prix picks and odds: Bet on a Perez podium and a Ferrari car to retire

The biggest week of the Formula 1 calendar is here and we’ve got picks for the Monaco Grand Prix.

The pre-race narrative: Sergio Perez won this race last year and we’re expecting him to be on the Podium in Monaco once again. We’re also betting on Ferrari’s disastrous start to the season to continue.

F1 odds as of 3:47 p.m. on 05/26/2023.

F1 Monaco Grand Prix picks

Best Bet: Perez to finish on the podium (+100)

This line seems a little disrespectful considering Perez won this race last year and has podiumed in all but one of the five races held in 2023.

Sure, he probably would’ve finished behind Charles Leclerc in 2022 if Ferrari didn’t botch the driver’s pit stop in lap 21. But even still, that would’ve likely resulted in a runner-up finish at worst.

Perez finished third in qualifying last year and fourth in qualifying the year before that. If he can turn in a similar result this time around, it’s hard to imagine him falling out of a podium finish. Monaco is a notoriously hard track to overtake on, so where a driver starts is integral to where they will finish once the race has concluded.

Perez has figured this track out and is driving the undisputed best car in the field. His greatest threat in this race is his Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen, who is the +125 favourite to win and a heavily juiced -286 to podium as of Friday afternoon.

While Verstappen is regarded as a better driver and receives perceived preferential treatment from Red Bull in terms of race strategy, the gap in the driver’s lines far exceeds the gap in skill.

The Flying Dutchman has three wins and two runner-ups this year while Perez has two wins and two runner-ups, alongside a fifth place in Australia.

Key stat: Perez has finished on the podium in five of his last six races.

Quick pick

Both cars from Ferrari to classify — No(+200): If you’re looking to capitalize on Ferrari’s misfortunes, this is the bet for you. In order to classify in a grand prix a driver has to complete 90% of the race distance. So we’re essentially betting on one of Ferrari’s two drivers to not finish this race.

Leclerc, we’re looking at you.

The Monegasque driver has had some of the worst luck imaginable at his home track and was forced to retire prior to the 2021 edition of this race after holding pole position through qualifying. Leclerc also crashed out of this race in 2018 and 2019, meaning he’s failed to finish in three of the last four Monaco GPs.

Leclerc is +385 to not qualify on his own but this is a safer play because, well, Ferrari is building a track record of unfortunate incidents. Carlos Sainz Jr. has finished every race this season but he did retire six different times last season.