F1 Japanese Grand Prix preview, picks, odds: Max Verstappen closer to clinching second straight title

The Athletic

06 October 2022

F1 Japanese Grand Prix preview, picks, odds: Max Verstappen closer to clinching second straight title

The Formula One reunion tour continues this week with the first Japanese Grand Prix since 2019. Last week’s race in Singapore was also the first race there since 2019.

Max Verstappen didn’t clinch the title last week, but he can do so in Japan with a win and the fastest lap (or other scenarios with help from Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez). Verstappen didn’t win in Singapore, but Perez kept Red Bull’s race-win streak, which is now at six.

Red Bull is also approaching clinching scenarios for the constructors’ championship. Ferrari’s early season lead has turned into a Red Bull runaway.

Meanwhile, the talk of the F1 world has been the report of Red Bull and Aston Martin going over the sport’s cost cap. The FIA has delayed its review of the breaches until Monday. With a wide range of potential penalties being floated around, Ferrari and Mercedes are arguing that Red Bull may have gained an advantage for three years by overspending. Neither the driver or constructor championships have been competitive this season so this storyline will be the main drama in the sport until it is resolved.

The Track

Suzuka International Racing Course

The Japanese Grand Prix was the first Asian Grand Prix in F1. It started in 1976 with Suzuka first hosting in 1978. The Suzuka circuit has hosted 31 of the 35 Japanese Grands Prix.

The track is owned by Honda, the engine manufacturer for Red Bull and sister team AlphaTauri. The track opened in 1962 initially as a test track for Honda.

Suzuka’s overall shape is a twisting figure-eight and it features a lot of high-speed corners. Sector 1 has a series of S turns, similar to the next F1 track, Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas.

It has one of the highest average speeds on the F1 calendar. The high-speed corners should be good for Ferrari, but the high average speed will give Red Bull an advantage. Passing is typically not easy in Japan outside of DRS so this will be another test for how the 2022 car changes passing and race dynamics.

Yuki Tsunoda will get to drive in his home F1 race for the first time. The second-year Alpine driver is the first Japanese driver to compete in the Japanese Grand Prix since Kamui Kobayashi in 2014. Kobayashi’s lone podium in F1 came in Japan in 2012.

Formula One driver standings top 10

The top 10 is unchanged from a week ago, but Verstappen is even closer to clinching the title. As noted above, if he wins with the fastest lap, it doesn’t matter what Leclerc and Perez do. If Verstappen wins without the fastest lap, Leclerc would have to finish lower than second and Perez would be out of contention.

If Verstappen doesn’t win, he must outscore Leclerc by at least six points and Perez by at least eight points to win the title. Verstappen clinching last week wasn’t likely, but it’s very plausible in Japan.

Formula One constructor standings

We’ll likely start hearing about clinching scenarios for Red Bull next race in the United States. It won’t take much either. Red Bull is on the precipice of its first title since 2013.

McLaren passed Alpine for fourth after both Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso retired in Singapore. Aston Martin moved up to seventh, ahead of Haas, after both Sebastian Vettel and Lance Stroll scored points.

Japanese Grand Prix odds

There’s really no surprise that Verstappen is the favorite, and a significant one. These odds make it seem likely that Verstappen will clinch the title this weekend.

The Athletic’s motorsports reporters Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answered a few questions ahead of the race weekend.

Suzuka Circuit has a lot of high-speed corners that should help Ferrari. Do you have any faith in Ferrari to beat Red Bull in a race at this point?

Gluck: I’d say Red Bull has the advantage heading into this week because the corners are so fast. There aren’t many straightaways for Red Bull to take advantage of its power that way, but the team has a car that can seemingly win on any type of circuit right now. Just look at Sergio Perez in Singapore, who held off Charles Leclerc despite a track that had tight turns (which earlier this season would have favored Ferrari). This feels like another Max Verstappen win in the making.

Bianchi: It doesn’t matter what type of track F1 is racing on, Red Bull is unquestionably the team to beat. That wasn’t the case earlier in the year where Ferrari held the edge on slower tracks, but over the course of the season Red Bull has made significant progress while Ferrari has largely stagnated. The only thing preventing another Red Bull romp is if something happens to Verstappen or Perez, otherwise one of them will likely be on the top step of the podium.

Red Bull has won six races in a row and 13 of the 17 races this season. Will Red Bull sweep the remaining five races or will someone else sneak in a win?

Gluck: Finishing off the season with 11 straight victories seems too far-fetched to believe. It’s not as if Red Bull has zero competition this season and has been that far superior to everyone else. Ferrari and even Mercedes at this point could still jump up and snatch a win before the season ends. So even though Red Bull has certainly been red hot, that’s mostly due to Verstappen. Odds are the team can’t win every week.

Bianchi: Logic says a team other than Red Bull will win at least once before the season ends. Then you take a look at what transpired in Singapore where Verstappen stumbled in qualifying, seemingly opening the door for Charles Leclerc and Ferrari only for Perez to carry the Red Bull banner by running away with the win. So at this point it feels like so much would have to go wrong for Red Bull for the team not to win, and that just doesn’t seem likely at this juncture.

Who is your pick to win the race? Bonus: Will Max Verstappen clinch the championship this weekend?

Gluck: This has all the feel of a big Red Bull weekend. Verstappen can win the race and possibly the championship, depending on how Leclerc does, all while celebrating in Honda’s backyard. You might be wondering: “Wait, Honda? I thought Honda and Red Bull were no longer connected.” Well, that’s not the case. In fact, Honda’s branding will return to Red Bull’s cars this weekend in Japan (even though the engines are not “officially” Honda anymore).

Bianchi: This is a Red Bull weekend across the board. Max Verstappen wins the pole, storms to the victory and wraps up his second consecutive world championship. And if Max somehow doesn’t win the race, Perez does.