Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Odds & Picks 2023

Odds at DraftKings as of September 20, 2023. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix.  

Can Red Bull Bounce Back from Singapore Setback?

Red Bull Racing has tried to put the best facer possible on last week’s relatively dismal performance by Verstappen and Perez. Both drivers struggled with pace in qualifying, with neither advancing to Q3 for the first time this season. Already at a disadvantage on the starting grid, the dup also struggled to make up ground on the tight track at Marina Bay. And even when Verstappen managed to climb to second place while other drivers pitted, he was unable to fend off rivals like Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris, who easily overtook him.

Things went no better for “Checo”, who was never a checkered flag threat during his run to eighth place. The duo remain perched atop the F1 odds, and with good reason. Verstappen and Perez finished one-two on a rain-soaked track in Japan last year, and still sport the fastest cars on the circuit. But apart from their -125 odds to produce a double podium finish, there is little value in wagering on Red Bull until last week’s pace issues are addressed.

Sainz Undervalued in Wake of Singapore Win

The big beneficiary of Red Bull’s woes in Singapore was Carlos Sainz Jr. Fresh off a third-place drive two weeks earlier in Italy, Sainz dominated the weekend, finishing tops in qualifying for a second straight week, before leading virtually wire to wire on race day. Now poised to match a personal best of three straight podium appearances, the 29-year-old Spaniard must first overcome a shaky track record in Japan.

In addition to crashing out on the opening lap last year, Sainz has managed to finish better than 10th just once in seven appearances at Suzuka. If weather cooperates, and he can manage to maintain the pace he had on straights last week, Sainz is well positioned to extend his streak.

In addition to offering value as a lengthy +1800 to claim the checkered flag, Sainz should not be overlooked as a +1200 wager to be the top qualifier. However, he offers equal value as a +450 to fail to be classified on Sunday.

Japanese Grand Prix Recent Winners

Stroll Injured, Alonso Hits Speed Bump

It is not yet reflected on the Japanese Grand Prix odds, but Aston Martin announced late on Tuesday that Lance Stroll will not be behind the wheel in Japan, as he continues to recover from a scary collision with a barrier during qualifying in Singapore.

Stroll will be replaced by Formula 2 champion Felipe Drugovich, who will be making his F1 debut. Drugovich’s arrival could provide a shake up at Aston Martin, which has faded since enjoying a fast start to the season.

Fernando Alonso has particularly struggled. Fresh off a season-worst 15th-place performance in Singapore, the two-time F1 champion has reached the podium just once in seven races after finishing top three in six of eight outings. Alonso has reached the podium in Japan on four previous occasions, including a win in 2008, but should be looked at no further than a +135 bet to crack the top six.

• Carlos Sainz Jr. podium finish (+285)
• Red Bull double podium (-125)
• Fernando Alonso top six finish (+135)