Georgia Tech Football: Duke Advanced Stats Review

Georgia Tech beat Duke this weekend. The team is showing signs of progress under new coach Mike Elko.

Tech ran for 96 yards on 15 carries, with QB Jeff Sims making good decisions. Dontae Smith added 31 yards and 0.62 EPA/play on three carries. Hassan Hall had a down day by advanced metrics, collecting -2.07 EPA (-0.12 EPA) and 70 yards (0:70) on 17 carries in the second half.

Georgia Tech won the game against Duke. Expected points are a metric to measure a team's effectiveness without explosive plays. Tech benefitted from explosive play through the air, but they were more effective on the ground. It's possible that Tech's low EPA could be explained by its focus on throwing screens.

Jeff Sims had a decent day under center for Georgia Tech. Pro Football Focus disagrees with this assessment. The expected QBR model rated Sims at 45.5.

Jeff Sims' performance is being judged on eye test and metrics. PFF's process-oriented grading system is different from GameOnPaper's and ESPN's results-orientated grading.

PFF gives rushing and passing performance equal weight in their offense grades.

PFF grades the play, not the result, so the quarterback that throws the ball to defenders will be downgraded. Quarterbacks can dump the balls off on screen passes and still get a good grade. No amount of broken tackles and yards after the catch from bubble screens will earn a quarterback a better grade than a pass completion.

Georgia Tech's offensive play calling improved this week. The team rushed on 54% of its first downs and 33% on second and long downs.

Georgia Tech has been inefficient in rushing the ball in the last five games. The team ran on first down (62%), early downs (57%), second and long (53%), and third and short (50%).

Georgia Tech lost to Duke. Tech's playcalling was conservative in the second half. The team let its foot off the gas in both the third and the fourth quarter. Tech needs to take advantage of these opportunities to end games.

Georgia Tech lost the game against Duke. The team missed several crucial fourth down decisions.

Tech needs to score four more points to avoid a penalty and overtime. The historic conversion rate in this situation is 33%. It's the first quarter. If Tech fails the conversion attempt, Duke would be backed up on its own side of the field and would most likely have to punt.

Georgia Tech is playing against Duke in the first quarter. A successful FG and a failed conversion are very similar. If Tech fails the conversion, Duke would be forced to punt from its own end zone.

Georgia Tech punted on fourth and two from the Duke 36 right before halftime.

Tech's coach made some mistakes during the game against Duke. He should have chosen to punt instead of try to convert on fourth down. The team's offense is dynamic and effective. The coach's team is not as bad as it seems. It's just a first-time head coach making mistakes. They can be forgiven for some of them. But they are not to be written off. Georgia Tech won the match. Duke won. Tech's game plan was good. Its team plays a dynamic, effective and eminently watchable offense. Their team runs the ball on early downs and uses RPOs.

Tech misses the conversion attempt and gives Duke the ball back at its own 36. Tech punts the football and it bounces into the end zone for a touchback.