Giants-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 18

Fresh off a dominant sweep of the New York Yankees this week, the MLB-leading Atlanta Braves (78-42) look to make it four wins in a row as they kick off a series against the slumping San Francisco Giants (64-57) on Friday night. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. The Giants will send righty Alex Cobb (6-4, 3.62 ERA) to the hill, while Atlanta counters with ace Spencer Strider (13-4, 3.75).

After a somewhat sluggish start to their second half, the Braves are firing on all cylinders once again, with eight wins in their last 10 games and a historic offensive pace so far in August. They’ve got a 4.5-game lead on the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL and will welcome the Mets to town after this weekend. The Giants, meanwhile, are taking on water, losers of seven of 10 and now just 1.5 games clear of an NL Wild Card spot. San Francisco will keep its NL East tour going next week with a road series against the Phillies.

Atlanta enters as heavy -230 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Giants at +190. The run total is set at 9.

Giants-Braves picks: Friday, August 18

Injury report

Giants

Out: OF Mike Yastrzemski (hamstring), OF/DH AJ Pollock (oblique), SP Anthony DeSclafani (elbow), RP John Brebbia (lat), OF Mitch Haniger (forearm)

Braves

Out: 2B Ozzie Albies (hamstring), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), SP/RP Kolby Allard (elbow), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Alex Cobb vs. Spencer Strider

Cobb has always gone as his splitter goes, and the split has very much not been cooperating of late. The righty is off to a dismal start in August, with an 8.04 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 15.2 innings across three starts this month. He most recently got shelled by the Rangers to the tune of six runs on nine hits in just 4.1 innings of work. When he’s on, he can be awfully effective, but his floor is much lower than you’d expect for a starter of his caliber — he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his sinker and splitter nearly 80% of the time.

After a shockingly rough outing against the Pirates two starts ago, Strider rebounded a bit over the weekend against the Mets, allowing three hits and walking four while striking out six over seven shutout innings. Still, that inflated walk total points to some ongoing command concerns for the All-Star: Strider possesses arguably the most electric stuff in the game, but he’s also walked nine batters in three starts this month.

Over/Under pick

The Braves’ war machine of a lineup could clear this over all by themselves — especially with Cobb struggling the way he has of late — and I don’t trust Strider to full keep the Giants off the scoreboard tonight. Granted, the righty could respond by striking out 11 over seven shutout innings, but unless he fixes his command issues I think San Francisco will contribute enough to this total to feel good about hitting the over. (Atlanta has scored at least five runs in 14 of their last 17 games dating back to July 28.)

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

I’d love to come up with some sort of contrarian angle on why you should actually take the Giants at such juicy odds, but alas, I can’t do it. If Cobb were his vintage self, maybe, but we have no way of knowing when his old splitter might show up, and this Braves lineup is simply pummeling mistakes right now. Even if Strider goes haywire, Atlanta should provide enough run support to tack on another win.