Giants vs Braves Odds, Predictions, Picks
There is a potential playoff preview brewing on Friday night when the San Francisco Giants begin a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves. Friday’s game will be the first of six head-to-head matchups between the Giants and Braves in a 10-day span. If the season ended today, both teams would be in the playoffs. However, at the moment, they appear to be moving in opposite directions.
The Giants head into the weekend series losing eight of their last 11 games. They have started to fall apart at the wrong time of the year and are desperate to get on track. While San Francisco is still holding onto a Wild Card spot, there are five teams separated by just three games that are currently fighting over the last two spots, so they can’t afford to wait much longer before getting back on track.
Unfortunately for the Giants, they are about to play one of the hottest teams in baseball. Following a sweep of the Yankees earlier this week, the Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Even before that hot streak, Atlanta had created an insurmountable lead in the NL East. However, the Dodgers are within striking distance of the Braves for the best record in the National League, so they will be motivated to stay focused down the stretch and ensure themselves home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
With the Giants struggling and the Braves red-hot, Atlanta is a sizable favorite on Friday with a moneyline of -230 compared to San Francisco’s moneyline of +190. The game also has an over/under of 8.5 runs.
San Francisco Giants Predictions
The Giants are hoping that Alex Cobb will help them to get back on track. Cobb is expected to start on Friday night despite a few problematic starts. He’s 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA on the season, making him San Francisco’s most consistent pitcher. But Cobb has posted an 8.04 ERA over his last three starts. During the month of August, he’s allowed 14 runs on 20 hits over just 15.2 innings, managing just 10 strikeouts.
Needless to say, Cobb could need some help from the San Francisco offense, especially given Atlanta’s potent lineup. Unfortunately, the Giants are in the midst of a team-wide slump. They have scored just a single run in three of their last seven games and scored more than three runs just once during that stretch. Outside of Mike Yastrzemski, the Giants are at full strength but nothing is clicking. The quartet of Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade, and Brandon Crawford have combined for just four hits over San Francisco’s last five games, meaning the Giants aren’t getting much from a significant portion of their lineup.
Atlanta Braves Predictions
As for the Braves, they will look to extend their winning streak with Spencer Strider on the mound. Strider is 13-4 with a 3.75 ERA this season and the Braves are 19-5 in games that he's started. That being said, Atlanta is just 3-3 in Strider’s last six starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mets in his last start. But he also got knocked around by the Pirates earlier this month, yielding six runs on five hits over 2.2 innings. He has nine walks in just 16.1 innings during the month of August with his strikeouts rate dropping as well. While Strider is capable of pitching a gem, he hasn’t quite been himself lately.
The good news for Strider and the Braves is that the Atlanta lineup has averaged seven runs per game during the month of August. That number is a little inflated after a 21-run output against the Mets on Saturday. However, the Braves have scored at least five runs in 14 of their 16 games this month. Both Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr. are legitimate MVP candidates with Olson leading the majors in both home runs and RBIs and Acuna leading the league in stolen bases. Even with Ozzie Albies going on the IL earlier this week, the Atlanta lineup hasn’t skipped a beat. With the Braves clicking offensively and supporting a pitching staff that has kept four shutouts in the last seven games, Atlanta has a huge edge in this game and should win easily.
Giants vs Braves - Over/Under Analysis
The Braves and Giants are at opposite ends of the over/under spectrum. Atlanta ranks third in hitting the over, going 65-52-3 O/U this year while the Giants are the third-worst team at hitting the over with an O/U record of 50-68-3. With the Braves hitting the over at home nearly 60% of the time, that’s the way to lean. Given Cobb’s recent struggles and a scorching-hot Atlanta lineup, the Braves have a chance to tee off and nearly score more than 8.5 runs on their own. Add to the equation Strider’s inconsistency, there is an excellent chance this game hits the over.
