Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Genesis Invitational

Golf betting tips: The Genesis Invitational final round

2pts win Will Zalatoris in Genesis Invitational at 9/2 (General)

1pt e.w. Luke List in Genesis Invitational at 14/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/3 1,2)

With a five-shot lead going into day three, there was a fear that Patrick Cantlay would turn the weekend into a very slow and dull procession. Think Martin Kaymer at the 2014 US Open as a past example of someone building a big 36-hole lead and no-one getting in a blow. It’s not the greatest of watches. Given Cantlay's pace of play, this really could have been a struggle.

But despite Cantlay plodding away competently enough with a 1-under 70 to hit 14-under, several from the chasing pack were able to find the low numbers to keep him in the crosshairs. Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris fired 6-under 65s to reach 12-under and lie just two back, Luke List’s 68 put him three in arrears, while Harris English (65) and Jason Day (69) also managed to end in double digits under par.

I wouldn’t look outside this top six for the winner. It’s a further two shots back to those in tied seventh (J.T. Poston, Hideki Matsuyama and Corey Conners) and there are too many good players in that half-dozen bunch at the top.

In addition, Riviera is a good course for frontrunners. Jon Rahm (2023) and Joaquin Niemann (2022) both converted three-shot leads which, to be fair, you would expect. Both were two clear at the finish. And widening the lens, the last eight winners here were in the top two after 54 holes and six of those had a piece of the lead.

If looking for a bit more jeopardy, three of the last 10 winners overcame four-shot deficits and that gives hope to the 10-unders, English and Day.

J.B. Holmes was the most recent in 2019, while Bubba Watson (2014) and James Hahn (2015) also made light of that same margin. Those two were sixth and seventh respectively on the leaderboard going into the final lap.

For those really chasing something crazy on day four, it's worth recalling Mike Weir sat 10th and a whopping seven shots in arrears with 18 holes to play. A final-round 66 saw him reel in Charles Howell III before winning a playoff. It’s also worth pointing out at this point that both Weir and Watson went on to win the US Masters a couple of months later, a trick Rahm pulled off last year. Whoever wins on Sunday must surely enter calculations for Augusta National.

As a third-round leader, Cantlay has converted twice from four attempts. He was tied for the lead in three of those and just one clear in the other so that’s probably a reasonable overall performance. One interesting dynamic here is that he’s with his Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup partner Schauffele in the final group on Sunday. The two times these great friends and fellow Californians have teed off together in the last pairing, Schauffele won the 2022 Travelers Championship and Cantlay the 2022 BMW Championship.

To make that 3-for-3, Cantlay is 11/10 and Schauffele 3/1. The latter looks tempting but Schauffele’s finishes when starting round four two shots back aren’t great. He slipped to 10th in last month’s Sentry and his previous five attempts when trying to overturn a two-shot lead on Sunday ended in finishes of 2nd, 6th, 3rd, 2nd and 17th.

Which brings me to the third Californian in the top three. Like Schauffele, ZALATORIS is two behind on 12-under but, although holes can be found in his past Sunday performances, I’m prepared to give him a shot at the general 9/2.

Zalatoris is honest and open about what Sunday could bring following his lengthy break from the game following back surgery: "I feel really good physically, most importantly, it’s just going to take a little bit of time to get used to it [new golf swing]. I think being in contention, that’s how you find out where you’re at."

That’s very true and time will tell but we can gauge where he’s at after 54 holes and the signs look very promising. The last two winners, Rahm and Niemann, both ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach when lifting the trophy and Zalatoris leads that category so far this week. Cantlay is 4th and Schauffele 17th. As for the other three members of the top six on the leaderboard, List is 3rd, Day 20th and English 27th.

Other positives for Zalatoris: the 27-year-old ranks 7th for Strokes Gained Putting (Cantlay is 1st) and he was the same margin behind (two shots) when winning his only PGA Tour title at the St Jude Championship in 2022. Zalatoris had arrived in that position after a Saturday 65, just as he’s done here.

Finally, I quite like this line from his Saturday press conference. “I’ve actually got my sports psychologist out here today, so that was kind of fun,” he said. “I told him my scoring average with him is around 64 and a half, so he’s going to need to start travelling a little bit more.”

Maybe that nugget will subconsciously kick in and, if we’re adding another psychological factor, Zalatoris may see this opportunity as a bonus so soon in his comeback and play with a little more freedom than his two main rivals who both last tasted victory in the summer of 2022.

If picking another, it has to be LUKE LIST at 14/1. He won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in 2022 so has recent experience of landing one of these early-season West Coast biggies.

In that event he was five behind after 54 holes and in 19th place so three back and solo fourth here doesn’t look too daunting a position.

And just maybe in this year of shock results, List will be emboldened to pull off the underdog coup again while the focus is elsewhere. Looking at his stats, the 39-year-old is 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting and, as mentioned, 3rd for Approach.

That spike in his usual poor putting stats (he was 189th for SGP last season and is 127th this time) was key to his Farmers win, List ranking 8th on the greens when tasting glory in a playoff at Torrey. There are only two each-way places to go at but List is capable of snaring one of them.

Posted at 0950 GMT on 18/02/24

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