2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that's called 8 majors
One of the most picturesque golf courses in the United States will host this week's stop on the PGA Tour as the world's best players head to San Diego. Torrey Pines Golf Course will host the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, with both golfers and fans getting to enjoy the Pacific Ocean views. The first 36 holes are split between the North and South Courses, with the final 36 holes taking place on the South Course.
Play tees off on Wednesday with the Masters just 10 weeks away. Jon Rahm, who has won each of his last two events, is the overwhelming favorite at 4-1 in the latest 2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds. Five other golfers have odds of 15-1 or shorter, per Caesars Sportsbook, including Xander Schauffele (12-1), Collin Morikawa (12-1), Justin Thomas (13-1) and Will Zalatoris (14-1). Before locking in any 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.
This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2023 Farmers Insurance Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Collin Morikawa, a five-time PGA Tour champion and one of the favorites at 12-1, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top-10. Morikawa secured a runner-up finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions despite shooting a 72 in the final round.
However, Morikawa has been extremely inconsistent with his putter this season. In fact, Morikawa enters this week's event ranked 114th in strokes gained: putting (-.056), 133rd in one-putt percentage (38.19%) and 168th in overall putting average (1.642). He also ranks 214th on the PGA Tour in approaches from 75-100 yards. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 field.
Another surprise: Taylor Montgomery, a 26-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Montgomery sits at No. 9 in FedEx Cup standings and is fifth-best amongst the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 field. He netted a solid 11th-place finish at this event a year ago, and the 12-under-par he shot over the last three rounds was second-best in the tournament over that stretch.
With three top-15s over his last three events -- including a fifth-place finish a week ago -- Montgomery is entering this tournament with a lot of confidence. His metrics back up his recent finishes as he ranks among the top 12 in strokes gained: total (1.588) and scoring average (69.304). He also leads the tour with 175 birdies, and with the last four Farmers Insurance Open winners each breaking 14-under-par, Montgomery's ability to break par puts him well positioned for this week. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs, including a massive 85-1 longshot. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's PGA picks here.
So who will win the Farmers Insurance Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including last year's Masters.
2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, field
Jon Rahm +400Xander Schauffele +1200Collin Morikawa +1200Tony Finau +1200Justin Thomas +1300Will Zalatoris +1400Sungjae Im +2000Max Homa +2200Taylor Montgomery +2600Jason Day +2700Hideki Matsuyama +3100Si Woo Kim +3300Sahith Theegala +4200Maverick Mcnealy +4200Cameron Davis +4500J.J. Spaun +5000Justin Rose +5000Keegan Bradley +5000Harris English +6000Scott Stallings +6500Hayden Buckley +7000Luke List +7500Alex Smalley +7500Taylor Pendrith +8500Wyndham Clark +9500Adam Hadwin +9500Davis Thompson +9500Kurt Kitayama +9500Ryan Palmer +10000Gary Woodland +10000Rickie Fowler +10000Adam Svensson +10000Thomas Detry +10000Davis Riley +11000Patrick Rodgers +11000Will Gordon +11000Emiliano Grillo +11000Robby Shelton +11000Cameron Champ +12000Dean Burmester +12000Trey Mullinax +12000Carson Young +12000Nick Hardy +14000S.H. Kim +14000Aaron Rai +15000Ben Taylor +15000Charley Hoffman +15000Byeong Hun An +15000Ben Griffin +15000Garrick Higgo +15000Sebastian Munoz +15000Kevin Yu +15000Matthew NeSmith +15000Lanto Griffin +16000Stephan Jaeger +16000Sam Ryder +16000Beau Hossler +16000Brendan Steele +17000Matthias Schmid +19000Justin Suh +19000Callum Tarren +19000Lee Hodges +20000
