Steve Palmer's Farmers Insurance Open predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Wednesday

Best bets

Tony Finau3pts each-way 14-1 bet365

Max Homa
2pts each-way 20-1 general

Taylor Pendrith
1pt each-way 70-1 bet365

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American football takes centre stage Stateside on Sunday, so the PGA Tour have opted for a Wednesday start and a Saturday finish for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

This venue of legends, where Tiger Woods once won a US Open with a broken leg, has attracted a strong field led by man-of-the-moment Jon Rahm. The Spaniard, who has won four of his last six tournaments, is a two-time Torrey champion. His maiden Tour title came in the 2017 Farmers and he won the 2021 US Open there. 

The short turnaround between a tight tussle in The American Express on Sunday and round one of the Farmers could be a negative for Rahm. The media spotlight is emphatically on him. Rahm loves Torrey Pines, though, and the 4-1 favourite will expect to continue his hot streak.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tony Finau 14-1

With all eyes on Rahm this week, Tony Finau can go quietly about his business, showcasing a game that has gone up a level in the last six months. Three PGA Tour victories have come for the giant Utah man in that period.

Finau has become more accurate than ever, while he has finally got an effective putting stroke, rolling his rock with assurance. His three most recent successes have come by a combined total of 12 shots – he has been in dominant form – and confidence is oozing from every pore.

Finau, who has represented his country four times in Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup combat, is at the peak of his powers at the age of 33. He can be expected to build on a solid Majors record this year – and can lay down an early marker at a former US Open venue this week.

He has teed up in the Farmers eight times and has form figures of 24-18-4-6-13-6-2-MC. Finau was in poor form at the start of last year – missing three cuts in four events in that spell – but normal service should resume this week at a venue he relishes.

Finau has a great record in California generally and seems the man most likely to upset Rahm. The 14-1 appeals much more than the 4-1 Rahm.

Next best bet

Max Homa 20-1

Californian Max Homa has a superb record in his home state, where three of his five PGA Tour titles have been won, and there seems every chance of that stat becoming four from six at Torrey Pines on Saturday evening.

Homa won the Fortinet Championship in the Golden State in September, then made an excellent Presidents Cup debut the following week, winning four points from four matches. A couple of those triumphs came when paired with Finau and this dynamic duo are two of the most improved players on the circuit.

Homa was ninth in the 2020 Farmers, 18th in 2021 and missed the cut by a shot last year. He has returned to Torrey as a 32-year-old bursting with self-belief, boasting a strong all-round game and enjoying life as a new father. Third place in the Sentry Tournament of Champions was an impressive start to the year. Homa was rusty for 36 holes, but weekend rounds of 63 and 66 rocketed him up the leaderboard.

Other selection

Taylor Pendrith 70-1

Torrey Pines sets up well for Canadian powerhouse Taylor Pendrith and he looks the pick of the Farmers outsiders. Pendrith carded four under-par rounds for 16th place in last year's event and he has started to appear more regularly on PGA Tour leaderboards.

Pendrith, able to muscle his way out of the juicy Torrey Pines rough, was fifth in the 2021 Bermuda Championship and second behind Finau in last year's Rocket Mortgage Classic. He was also 13th in the Players Championship and eighth in the BMW Championship (FedEx Cup playoffs), so self-belief is growing.

Internationals captain Trevor Immelman took a gamble on Pendrith for the Presidents Cup – and the wild-card pick did not disgrace himself. Pendrith endured a couple of narrow defeats in his first two matches with weak partners, then ran into the dream team of Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth on the Saturday and unflappable Finau on the Sunday. Pendrith could take positives from his Internationals debut and his long-game class gives him a chance of making an impact in the Farmers.

Players to note

Collin Morikawa
For 69 holes of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Californian was exceptional, and the two-time Major champ is a tempting option for Torrey. He was fourth in the 2021 US Open there.

Taylor Montgomery
A share of 11th place in last year's Farmers shows that Montgomery can handle Torrey Pines. A strong driver who putts superbly.

Torrey Pines courses guide

Courses Torrey Pines South and North, La Jolla, San Diego, California
Prize money $8.7m ($1.566m to the winner)
Length South 7,765 yards, North 7,258 yards
Par Both 72
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (3), Xander Schauffele (6), Will Zalatoris (7), Collin Morikawa (8), Justin Thomas (9)
Course records- 72 holes 266 George Burns (1987), Tiger Woods (1999) 18 holes South 62 Tiger Woods (1999), North 61 Mark Brooks (1990), Brandt Snedeker (2007)

Course winners taking part Nick Watney, Ben Crane, Scott Stallings, Jason Day (twice), Jon Rahm (twice), Justin Rose, Luke List

When to bet By 5pm on Wednesday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Wednesday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – The American Express 1 J Rahm (6-1), 2 D Thompson (300-1), T3 X Schauffele (20-1), C Kirk (100-1), 5 T Montgomery (40-1), T6 E Van Rooyen (300-1), M Schmid (400-1), R Shelton (175-1), T Kim (22-1), JT Poston (66-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Torrey Pines has hosted since 1968. The South, opened in 1957, was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001 to make it tougher for the 2008 US Open, which was won by Tiger Woods. Jon Rahm won the US Open there in 2021. It is a severe test and has traditionally been at least two shots harder than the North in this event. Tom Weiskopf redesigned the North in 2015, while the South had five holes redesigned prior to the 2020 Farmers. The greens are bentgrass at the North and Poa annua at the South. The North is used for only one round and the final 36 holes are played at the South once the cut has been made. The small greens on the South are undulating and tricky

Story of last year Luke List defeated Will Zalatoris in a playoff, making a PGA Tour breakthrough at the age of 37

Weather forecast Chilly mornings replaced by pleasant afternoons, temperatures peaking at 20C, with gentle breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The honours board at Torrey Pines indicates the venue is a big-hitters' paradise, with Tiger Woods having won eight times, Phil Mickelson, John Daly, Davis Love, Nick Watney and Bubba Watson all three times, and Jason Day and Jon Rahm twice

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight

Four of the last 12 winners ranked first or second for driving distance