Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Golf betting tips: Rocket Mortgage Classic Final Rd
2pts win Adam Hadwin at 18/5 (William Hill, Bet Victor, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 9/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)
Unlike established events on the PGA Tour, we don’t have much history to help us solve the weekly final-round puzzle. This is just the fourth edition although at least they’ve all been contested at Detroit Golf Club.
This is what we do know: all those four winners - Nate Lashley, Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Davis and Tony Finau - were in the top three after 54 holes.
In terms of the lead, Lashley was six clear with a lap to go and cruised home, DeChambeau was three back and won by three, Davis was one off the pace before winning a play-off and Finau was tied at the top before streaking away to win by five.
Rickie Fowler, who moved into a one-shot lead on 20-under thanks to a Saturday 64, is now the clear favourite to go on and claim victory and, on recent form and being a top bloke and all that, many will be cheering him on. But 10/11 on a player who hasn’t tasted victory since 2019 and has a conversion rate of 20% (twice in 10 attempts) with 54-hole leads? Hmmm.
Part of me will be cheering Fowler on but my focus is going to be on the other two members of the current top three: Canadians Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith. They’re priced at 18/5 and 9/1 respectively.
These are heady times for Canadian golf and Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson, Corey Conners and Nick Taylor have all won on the PGA Tour this season. Taylor’s recent win in the Canadian Open is particularly significant as it ended a home drought that had extended back to 1954.
That latter success must surely embolden Hadwin and Pendrith and they’re in great position to cash in if Fowler stumbles. Hadwin is one back after a 9-under 63 which tied the course record while Pendrith trails the leader by two following a 67.
Both have past course form with Hadwin closing with a 67 to finish fourth here on debut in 2020. Pendrith was runner-up last year so would become the third example this season of a player who won an event having finished second the year before. Jon Rahm did it at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Tony Finau at the Mexico Open.
Looking at the stats, DeChambeau was 1st for Strokes Gained: Putting when winning this event in 2020 while inaugural champion Nate Lashley ranked second. In each of the last two years, four of the top five were ranked in the top 15 for SGP. It’s a key metric.
Hadwin jumps off the page in that respect as he currently tops the Strokes Gained: Putting charts this week. He’s gained 7.613 strokes on the field on these greens so far but it’s also worth noting that he ranked 3rd for both Approach and Tee To Green on day three.
Pendrith is 3rd in those same two categories for the week rather than just one day although his putting is less assured. He ranked in the top 10 for SGP on day two and will probably need to match those levels on Sunday but we’ll take that chance.
As for others in the chasing pack, it will surely make the task of Fowler, Hadwin and Pendrith that little bit easier that the two men three back on 17-under are Peter Kuest and Aaron Rai: two players going into new territory.
Kuest did finish with a 63 at the Byron Nelson but that was from way off the pace and took him to 14th. Rai’s best from 60 PGA Tour starts is third although that did come in the recent Canadian Open two starts ago. Also top 25 at the Travelers, the Englishman has each-way potential at 14s.
The bunch on 16-under are a mixed bag: Yuan Yechun of China, Dylan Wu, Justin Lower, Taylor Moore and Collin Morikawa. The latter two are obviously the class acts and Moore’s 28/1 at bet365 is tempting. He was the halfway leader and maybe his difficult round (3-under 69) came yesterday.
The final ‘X’ factor is the weather. Play was suspended for one hour and 42 minutes in round three due to the threat of lightning. With an iffy forecast predicted for Sunday, the leaders head out just before 9am local, five hours earlier than originally planned. Get those bets on early as the last tee-time is 1.55pm UK.
The wrinkle there is that they’re now playing in threesomes rather than two-balls and that means both Hadwin and Pendrith will be in the last group. These things don’t always work out but I’m hoping that they can feed off each other. For one thing, it should keep both that little bit more relaxed.
Posted at 0950 BST on 02/07/2023
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