Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Texas Open at TPC San Antonio

Golf betting tips: Texas Open Final Rd

1pt e.w. Matt Kuchar at 15/2 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3)

1pt e.w. Sam Stevens at 25/1 (Corals, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3)

Like someone freaked out by the possibility that social media advertising is eavesdropping conversations via a phone, this week’s Texas Open is making me wonder if the PGA Tour has some sort of surveillance tool in its app.

You see, on Monday evening I was engaged in a Whatsapp chat with a Polish friend about her nation’s cuisine, in the process of which I discovered that the name Kuchar derives from the word “kucharz” which means “cook”, and being the sort of one dimensional weirdo who draws everything back to golf I was delighted by the idea that MATT KUCHAR had Polish ancestors who made remarkable soups (google “czernina”).

Spin it forward to last night and my frenzied brain was wondering if it was malign influence, world class algorithms or simply coincidence that Kuchar was cooking up a birdie-storm in the third round at TPC San Antonio.

The veteran was 5-under through 17 holes and a birdie at the par-5 last would have had him heading into Sunday’s action tied for the lead.

Alas, he made a double bogey-7 to hit the 54-hole mark on 9-under 207.

He trails Corey Conners (205) by two, with Patrick Rodgers, who himself dropped a shot at the last, alone at the top on 12-under 204. Sam Stevens and Chris Kirk are behind Kuchar in a tie for fourth on 8-under with half a dozen performers a further shot back (five of them yet to win at this level plus Padraig Harrington).

The front trio are unlikely to know it, but history favours them. 10 of the 12 tournament winners on this course were tied third or better at this stage (nine of them tied second or better) and Davis Riley was also tied second when he won the Korn Ferry Tour event held on the layout in 2020 (the two exceptions were Adam Scott in the first visit, he was tied sixth, and Martin Laird, who was tied seventh in 2013).

In truth, of course, there is no algorithm messing with my head. Kuchar is knocking on the door because of two rather more straightforward factors. The first is that in his 40s he’s done a very fine job of peaking on courses that suit him and on which he has performed well in the past. He was second here last year, has seven top 25s and has never missed a cut in 10 visits.

The second is that the course rewards specialists. Three previous winners had already finished second, another had been third, another ninth and yet another had been second at halfway the year before his win.

“It’s a course I have a huge amount of respect for,” Kuchar said after his third round, adding: “Having a chance to win on Sunday, that’s when golf gets really exciting.” He leads the field for SG Approach this week and I’d have him more like 5/1 so like the 15/2 available.

Rodgers is the favourite and, like Conners, is not far behind Kuchar in approach work for the week. He did drop off in round three however, he lacks course form (one cut made in four starts and that was T58th) and he is yet to win at this level (he’s had three 54-hole leads).

His chatter last night was lovely, praising his wife’s support and the fact that his life is in a good place. “Definitely in the past everything has felt like it’s riding on how I play,” he said. “But now I just view tomorrow with a lot of excitement. Whether I win tomorrow or I don’t, I don’t feel like my life is going to change a whole lot. There’s no better place to be than to have an advantage, but it’s going to take a great round in order to get it done.” Best of luck to him but I’m not keen to take 2/1.

Conners has even better course vibes than Kuchar. The Canadian won the tournament in 2019 and is 4-for-4 at making the cut. His relentless tee-to-green game is a great fit and he knows it. “I love this course and feel really comfortable out here,” he said. “I like it visually off the tee and it’s very demanding with your irons into the greens. You’ve really got to be in control of your ball and that’s something I’ve always liked about this place.”

Of his spot on the leaderboard he added: “This is a great opportunity.” It undoubtedly is and he’s the worthy favourite but even at 19/10 I’m wary because his putter can go mighty cold and, of the five times he’s been top two with 18 holes to play on the PGA Tour, he has produced the magic here, but he has also carded a 77, a 76 and a 74.

Fans of Canadian snooker, rather than golf, will be thrilled that Kirk and Stevens are tied fourth. The former will probably play with the most freedom of all the top five after his recent win in the Honda Classic. He’s also got three top eight finishes on the course and is tempting at 14/1.

But I’m going to add SAM STEVENS for a couple of reasons. The first is that he is fresh off recent experience of contending. He was third with 18 holes to play in Puerto Rico at the start of March before a 74 left him T15th, but he learned lessons and when tied for the lead last week in the Dominican Republic he carded a 69 for third.

“Definitely I got off to a slow start on Sunday last week,” he said yesterday. “But just being able to hang in there and give myself a chance to win was definitely a confidence builder. I’ve been mentally doing really well, just kind of staying patient and hanging tough.”

The other factor is his hot putter. He ranks fifth for SG Putting but first for Putt Average (1.53). Now traditional stats are much disparaged and for good reasons but the last four course winners (three PGA, one KFT) averaged 1.54, 1.52, 1.57 and 1.53. I’ll add Stevens at 25/1.

An added dimension is that the winner earns the last spot in the Masters. Conners and Kirk are already in the field, but it is an enormous opportunity for Rodgers and Stevens. The more experienced Kuchar, too, and it kind of adds to my liking of his chances.

Posted at 0956 BST on 02/04/23

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