Golfbet Insider: Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
If Jon Rahm, Max Homa and Scottie Scheffler continue to perform as well as they have of late, then PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers likely will end Segment 2 where they started. All of it would have been a push.
Rahm (Sentry, Genesis) and Scheffler (WM) have won the first three designated events. This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship next week also are designated events and they conclude Segment 2, but we get only three starts per golfer per Segment, and those of us who have capitalized on timely victories, including Homa’s at Farmers – raises hand! – now need to step aside or the earlier successes will serve as unintentional insurance policies for imminent claims. They’re important, but it does make you wonder if your premium is going to rise when we all renew starts for all in Segment 3.
Because all fantasy is relative and fantasy golf in particular boils down to golfer-specific considerations, you’re all but guaranteed to be faced with a decision to burn a last start on a stud either at Bay Hill or at TPC Sawgrass. The third option, as it always is, is to holster it for good, but again, with how the winners of the Player Impact Program have been delivering, that’s a recipe to lose your lead or contribute to your deficit.
For those of you for whom this isn’t your first rodeo, this will be reassuring to read, while for those of you who are new to the action, this will be potentially valuable advice to clip and save: No matter who come out on top at THE PLAYERS, TPC Sawgrass will win the tournament. The margin of error around the home course of the PGA TOUR is so thin that the goal is just to get four to the cut, take whatever points you get and move on.
For some of the designated events, and as the first three have proven, fantasy is in lockstep with reality, but this isn’t always the case. Both THE PLAYERS and The Open Championship will be moments when deviating from the chalk in favor of a blend often is addition by subtraction, which, in the context of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, almost plays out like a two-start swing against the competition. Both can manifest as the opposite of a push. Save the start and pay it off in a more sensible spot elsewhere in the Segment. This is why I haven’t hesitated in exhausting starts for so many notables in Segment 2. It’s like I haven’t even “counted” THE PLAYERS. I’ll deal with it when it arrives and adhere to what I know works.
The secondary component doesn’t hurt; that is, the 36-hole cuts at both the API and THE PLAYERS are low 65 and ties. This is standard, of course, but the field at Bay Hill is just 120 deep, whereas next week’s reserves space for 144, which also will be stronger pound for pound than this week’s. So, not only are you getting a more predictable dataset on Bay Hill, you’re also improving your odds to cash. Considering the margin of error alone, it’s not a fair fight.
It’s necessary to include a coda to the advice of this fortnight, however. Looking ahead to next week, veteran ball-strikers in form should populate your bin of other considerations. Never mind long hitters, outstanding putters or whoever is the shiniest new toy on your shelf. For all of its pomp, dazzling imagery and historical significance, TPC Sawgrass is a plodder’s paradise. There isn’t another test that rewards boring golfer more, and that’s referring only to score. Everything else are career-defining bonuses. You’re gonna want mules, not thoroughbreds.
Patrick Cantlay (+190 = Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler both Top 20) … This was inevitable. No, not that he didn’t appear in a Power Rankings in a tournament in which he’s competing – although that’s a fair point – it’s that he’s a first-timer at Bay Hill, as hard as that is to believe. When the format for the designated events was announced, we knew that something like this was going to happen. Because of the construct of professional golf, it’s actually rarer for it to happen in non-majors than it is for the game’s best not to already have played in at least every major once, and it’s still surprising, but it’s part of the agreement forged. Course inexperience hasn’t mattered for others – see Spieth, Jordan (below) – and it likely won’t matter for him, but he’s just (-135) on his own ball for a top 20. Might as well attach him to the defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, for whom barely eking into the top 20 would qualify as a down week, and that is not expected. It’d be a unit well-apportioned.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, March 1, at 4:00 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Sam Burns (+320 = Top 10) … Couple of things… First, for as long as I’ve been compelled to convey my philosophy about gaming, I’ve been conservative. I’ll spare you the recap if you’re not already aware, but the message here and now is that I rarely advise greater than a top-20 finish in betting circles. Anyone who’s ever seen “The Social Network" will appreciate the humor that I’d rather be the guy with a picture beside 14 trout than a 3,000-pound marlin. Yet, I can see Burns’ fin and I can tell that he’s picked up on the bait. If you were going to play a game of over-under 100th on the FedExCup, I’d have guessed over, as in outside the top 100. Nope, he’s 64th (and I own him in my season-long private league!). It’s been a very quiet season by his standards, but Bay Hill gives his best self a chance to thrive. He finished T9 here last year, and that was immediately after the slog of an 0-for-3 skid. His form is much better upon arrival, but he’s been in the shadows in the designated events. This is phenomenal value for this finish at this time.
Jordan Spieth (+150 = Top 20) … He hasn’t been sharp enough to warrant placement in the Power Rankings, but Bay Hill fits his recent mission to send it off the tee and trust in his talent on approach and near greens. Simply put, if he’s going to miss fairways – that always was a burden he carried – then he might as well miss them closer to the hole. It puts the better sticks in his hands with less ground to cover. (Think Muirfield Village last year when he piled on a strong record there with a second straight T18.) Oh, and he’s had a close call in his only appearance here, anyway, with a T4 in 2021.
Justin Thomas (-250 = Top 40) … No, it’s not sexy, but the general advice is to abstain. He’s entirely speculative as a supreme talent who hasn’t given Bay Hill a go since his debut in 2015. What’s more, he’s a scorer whose irons haven’t been as crisp as the back of the trading card would suggest. Red numbers play hard to get here. That’s why limping into this is suitable in support of the objective.
Hideki Matsuyama (+400 = Top Asian) … Form has been erratic enough to inflate this value in a grouping of seven led by Sungjae Im (+220) and Tom Kim (+300), but the latter South Korean is a hot item, so it’s understandable why his kickback is muted. Meanwhile, Matsuyama knows his way around Bay Hill with the best of ‘em. He’s pegged it in all of the most recent 32 rounds in the tournament and recorded four top 25s among those eight paydays. Top 20s in the last two.
NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.
Joseph Bramlett (+175 = Top 40)
Corey Conners (+250 = Top Canadian)
Min Woo Lee (+120 = Top 40)
Shane Lowry (+200 = Miss the Cut)
Andrew Putnam (+188 = Top 40)
Sam Ryder (+150 = Top 40)
Robby Shelton (+200 = Top 40)
RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
Thomas Detry … Back at it after calling it quits after one round at PGA National last week. An explanation wasn’t released. He opened with 76. At 19th in the FedExCup, the Belgian is in the driver’s seat for the foreseeable future. While not yet officially in THE PLAYERS Championship, he’ll be a well-positioned alternate if he isn’t called to fill the field via his FedExCup position when it’s released on Friday.
RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Puerto Rico Open
Brent Grant … The rookie has been on a wild ride to open 2023. After missing the cut by six strokes at Waialae, he took 22 swings too many to survive the 54-hole cut at PGA West. But, like all professionals, he reset and reversed course with a T25 at Torrey Pines and a T20 at Pebble Beach. Then, complications from sinus issues contributed to his decision to withdraw after one round at PGA National, but he already was up against the wall after an opening 77. He’s proven his grit never to count him out, but the learning curve is gripping him right now. It’s to be expected this early in his career.
NOTABLE WDs – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
NOTABLE WDs – Puerto Rico Open
Ben Martin … It was a bummer that he bowed out, but he’s earned the break after a T5 at PGA National to climb to 79th in the FedExCup.
Harrison Endycott … The PGA TOUR rookie is holding his own. He’s traded six missed cuts with five paydays, three of which going for a top 25. At 87th in the FedExCup, he’s in a good spot to take a breather.
Zac Blair … After a T49 at The Honda Classic, he’s 137th in the FedExCup and has 13 starts remaining on a Major Medical Extension.
Steve Stricker … The Charles Schwab Cup earnings leader is in the field at the Cologuard Classic on the PGA TOUR Champions. In his last six starts on the senior circuit, he has a T2 and a solo third to go with four wins.
RECAP – The Honda Classic
Power Ranking Golfer Result
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) Result
Garrick Higgo (+220 = Top 20) T29
Mark Hubbard (+350 = Top 20) T42
Aaron Rai (+225 = Top 20) MC
Golfer (recommended bet) Result
Wild Card: J.T. Poston (+138 = Top 20) T63
Also Starring: Min Woo Lee (+220 = Miss the Cut) T26
Also Starring: Thomas Detry (-160 = Top 40) WD
Also Starring: Webb Simpson (+120 = Top 40) T74
Also Starring: Luke Donald (+800 = Top English) MC
Tap-In: Joseph Bramlett (-125 = Top 40) T55
Tap-In: Cam Davis (+225 = Top Australian)
Tap-In: Padraig Harrington (+100 = Top 40) T60
Tap-In: Peter Malnati (+138 = Top 40) MC
*Tap-In: Andrew Novak (+180 = Top 40) T29
Tap-In: Brian Stuard (+300 = Top 40) MC
*Tap-In: Jhonattan Vegas (+110 = Top South American) T21
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