Golfbet Insider: Valero Texas Open
This is a terrific week to review a combination of factors as it concerns PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, my lineup for it in Expert Picks and the weather forecast.
The Valero Texas Open is the third of 11 tournaments contributing to the long-running fantasy game on this website. Because of the construct of its field and since last week’s World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play wasn’t used, none of us is losing sleep over considerations of who to holster. Even with betting favorite Tyrrell Hatton and his fellow headliner, Hideki Matsuyama, committed to play, each presents a question mark, so neither is in my lineup. See below for details on both guys.
If you’re new to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, I always submit my starters, bench and comment for Expert Picks before tee times are released. Because of that timing, we always reserve the option to make changes. Typically, this isn’t necessary unless the elements project reason to pivot. Most of the time, I plan on burning a start for everyone in my lineup with as many as possible going out in both morning waves, when applicable, but this isn’t always the case. This is one of those weeks.
I always drop a peek at the weather in my Power Rankings that publishes on Monday afternoon or evening (U.S. time). This week’s mid-range forecast included strong winds at some point during the first two rounds, perhaps both, so fantasy heads are on swivels until the Thursday morning’s roster deadline.
Tournament officials are magicians at doing their best to make it fair for all entrants, but this sport is played outdoors and we need to react accordingly.
In the 24 hours since the PR pubbed, it’s grown clearer that the early starters on Thursday should have the advantage in R1 but keep an eye on my Twitter for an update on Wednesday afternoon/evening. It’s possible if not likely that what you read in Expert Picks will not match my final decisions.
Kevin Streelman (+300 = Top 20) … The 2022-23 PGA TOUR season has knocked him around a bit, but the 44-year-old still has connected on nine paydays in 15 starts. Easily his best in the last five months-plus was his last at Copperhead where he finished T27 and ranked inside the top 20 in greens hit, proximity to the hole, Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s also perfect in seven trips to TPC San Antonio with five top 20s, including in each of his last three.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, March 29, at 2:30 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Tyrrell Hatton (+333 = Miss the Cut) … Perhaps the most compelling experience of the last 48 hours wasn’t the consternation of his omission from the Power Rankings but the fact that there was nary a peep that Rickie Fowler was slotted No. 1. There isn’t any value to that in the realm of betting for Fowler but it does strongly suggest that ownership percentages in fantasy circles will be reflective of confidence en masse. Meanwhile, the Englishman is coming off an 0-3-0 performance at the Match Play where he cited a sore right hand early in the tournament. It’s been a little over three years since he had surgery on the same hand, but even though he returned rapidly and in form early in 2020, the potential impact of new doubt on the ability to perform free of it must be respected. He’s making his tournament debut at TPC San Antonio where hand and wrist injuries have occurred in rocky lies far from fairways and approaches, and, of course, the Masters is on deck, so consider the speculative wager. It’s easily the friendliest of the smattering on the board. Besides, a make-the-cut prop was worth just one-fifth of a kickback at last check.
Charley Hoffman (+400 = Top 20) … If BetMGM extended a market for a Top 40, that’s the one that I’d endorse, so I’m tiptoeing into a Top 20 because I promised that he’d be included in this review. To give you all the proof you need that he’s a horse, he’s guaranteed to remain the all-time earnings leader of the Valero Texas Open no matter what happens this week. Until last year’s missed cut, he was perfect in 11 appearances with 10 top 40s at TPC San Antonio. Asking for a sixth podium finish on the course is too much because getting four times your investment for this prop already is evidence of how long it’s been since he’s made noise in an official PGA TOUR event.
Kazuki Higa (+550 = Top 20) … The 27-year-old from Japan has made five PGA TOUR starts but this is his first on the U.S. mainland. Like many terrific talents from his homeland, his game hasn’t translated to this level (yet), but he was the runaway earnings leader on his circuit in 2022 and he’s piled on with a trio of top 15s in his last three starts worldwide, including a T4 in his last in India at the end of February, so form isn’t an issue. The greens at TPC San Antonio also will resemble the kind of slower speed with which he’s familiar in Japan, and with par projected to be a very good score during the first two rounds, this is a tasty value to consider.
NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.
Kevin Chappell (+400 = Top 20)
Dylan Frittelli (+450 = Top South African)
Nate Lashley (+400 = Top 20)
Taylor Montgomery (+220 = Miss the Cut)
Davis Riley (+125 = Top 20)
Sepp Straka (+300 = Top 20)
Brandon Wu (+240 = Top 20)
Hideki Matsuyama … Withdrew from the Match Play before his third-round match with Max Homa to rest a sore neck. Matsuyama went 1-2-0 in the Group Stage. The Valero Texas Open presents a terrific opportunity to stay warm and test things physically. Consider a fraction of a unit in a Top 40 market. For PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers, he’s going to be attractive at next week’s Masters and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday as defaults in Segment 3, so reserve the third option as a TBD and use this week for observation only.
Matthew NeSmith … Rested last week after exiting the Valspar Championship before his opening round with an injured back. Since a torrid, three-week stretch in the fall, he’s gone ice cold with just three paydays in nine starts. Only one was a top 50 and that was but a T39 at Bay Hill. Still 53rd in the FedExCup, however.
Chad Ramey … If Matt Wallace returns to defend his title at Corales next year, he’ll be the latest in an ominous trend at the tournament. The last two defending champions were forced to withdraw after completing just one round. Last year, Joel Dahmen called it quits due to an illness. Last week, a sore back knocked Ramey out after a 1-under 71. He’s, uh, back at TPC San Antonio this week but leave considerations to full-season investors who no doubt are relieved that he’s able to give it a go again so soon.
Lanto Griffin … He got back inside the ropes in last week’s Club Car Championship at The Landings Golf & Athletic Club on the Korn Ferry Tour and finished T16. He had been sidelined since walking off Riviera on Feb. 17 with an injury to the intercostal muscles near his ribcage. Because he hadn’t established a normal schedule on the PGA TOUR since opening 2023 with a rehab start on the KFT, he’s allowed another and didn’t take a bite out a medical extension in 2024, should he require one.
Nicholas Lindheim … I missed this as well last week, which is too bad because he made a run at the Club Car before finishing T8. It was his first start anywhere since opening his return to the PGA TOUR with a pair of missed cuts in early October. The 38-year-old is sitting this week out but it won’t cost him real estate in the graduate reshuffle on the PGA TOUR even though it reorders at the conclusion of the Valero Texas Open.
Keith Mitchell … He was one of the four qualifiers into the Masters via the latest Official World Golf Ranking, so he no longer needed to win the Valero Texas Open to punch a ticket.
Davis Thompson … When rookies commit and withdraw early, it’s usually a good sign in the context of scheduling. At 43rd in the FedExCup, he’s in a great spot to climb into upcoming invitationals on merit, so don’t sweat the break. Consider that all of his last five starts were in designated events.
Stephan Jaeger … Second consecutive early WD, but he’s been his usual busy self all season, and it’s been a fruitful one to boot with 13 paydays in 15 starts to sit 79th in the FedExCup.
Robert Streb … Just 2-for-15 on the season and 202nd in the FedExCup. His membership exemption for winning The RSM Classic early in 2020-21 expires this season.
Anders Albertson … This is his third early exit in as many weeks. Hasn’t played since a season-best T21 in Puerto Rico. Now 203rd in the FedExCup.
Brian Gay … The 51-year-old is 1-for-5 on the season with a T11 in, where else, Bermuda. He played in all three PGA TOUR Champions events in March and recorded one top 25.
RECAP – World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Scottie Scheffler = 4th
12 Xander Schauffele = T5
16 Maverick McNealy = T52
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result
*Billy Horschel (+450 = Winner of Group 2) = T9
Nick Taylor (+450 = Winner of Group 4) = T31
Victor Perez (+400 = Winner of Group 9) = T31
Min Woo Lee (+300 = Winner of Group 11) = T31
RECAP – Corales Puntacana Championship
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
Wild Card: Harry Higgs (+275 = Top 20) = T38
Also Starring: Emiliano Grillo (+100 = Top 20) = T70
Also Starring: Patrick Rodgers (-110 = Top 20) = MC
Also Starring: Taylor Pendrith (+100 = Top 20) = T70
Also Starring: Michael Kim (+170 = Top 20) = T26
Tap-In: Rafael Campos (+500 = Top 20) = T38
*Tap-In: Kevin Chappell (+350 = Top 20) = T16
*Tap-In: Brice Garnett (+350 = Top 20) = T8
Tap-In: Richy Werenski (+400 = Top 20) = MC
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