Golfbet Insider: The Honda Classic
In case you missed the big news on Tuesday, the R&A released the qualifying criteria and currently exempt field for The Open Championship. February was the target and, by Jove, we got it!
It was just under a couple of weeks ago that the USGA did the same for the U.S. Open, so now only the PGA of America is on the clock for the PGA Championship.
My Qualifiers for THE PLAYERS and all majors recapped Jon Rahm’s victory at Riviera on Sunday, but I added an update to reflect the news on The Open. “OPEN” has been added beside all golfers who weren’t officially announced as in until now, and the REMAINING QUALIFYING CRITERIA at the bottom details all exemptions to be distributed in chronological order.
Silly me, but I was bracing for the Korn Ferry Tour graduate reshuffle to be the headliner of the break between the West Coast Swing and the Florida Swing. Per tradition, the category was reordered following The Genesis Invitational, a process that historically has generated churn in the field at The Honda Classic.
The turnover occurred in the Beyond 150 reshuffle, but the two guys bumped from the field (by Jonas Blixt and Sung Kang) in their dedicated reorder – Scott Brown and Greg Chalmers – regained entry via early withdrawals, anyway. As always, NOTABLE WDs below go into a little detail for all. When you dive in, you’ll pick up on another phenomenon that occurs during the annual migration east – likely scheduling adjustments.
Meanwhile, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf continues to hum along. Only three tournaments remain in Segment 2, but you shouldn’t be pressed to consider saving starts on anyone at the Honda. Lean on the chalk and take a risk or two. Ownership dispersion is your friend after pushes at the top. It’s a good week to be a chaser.
Finally, if you’re new to the scene, you’re going to observe a plethora of golfers suddenly find their games in the coming weeks. It’s in part due to the shift back home for the natives of the Southeast. In addition to the comfort factor in these climes, the consistency of putting on bermuda is all that has been missing to pay off sharper components of their game. Use this trusted method to lean on Southeasterners for upswings before they happen.
J.T. Poston (+138 = Top 20) … Despite going 0-for-2 to conclude the West Coast Swing, he’s not far removed from the form that delivered seven top 25s in full-field events in the previous five months, so this value is fair, especially when you consider his firepower in relation to the field. He’s 4-for-5 at PGA National, albeit not yet for a top 25 and he didn’t break par in any of his last eight rounds, but he’s on a new plane of late. Currently T15 in ball-striking and T19 in par-5 scoring.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Feb. 22, at 3:45 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Min Woo Lee (+220 = Miss the Cut) … In the absence of a larger board with more options, I don’t hate the speculative for the 24-year-old Aussie. He’s been on fire abroad but he scuffled more than he succeeded in a dozen starts on the PGA TOUR last season. Yes, he’s building experience but this is his first appearance at PGA National where you can’t fake it.
Thomas Detry (-160 = Top 40) … He was my last cut from the Power Rankings proper, so it might be surprising to see me limp in on this. He grabbed my attention for having connected 13 consecutive paydays worldwide since the BMW PGA Championship in September, but none of his most recent five resulted in a top 25. That includes a T37 at pat-72 Torrey Pines, easily the hardest course on the PGA TOUR this season – par-71 Riviera is fourth-toughest in relation to par – and now he’s poised to tackle PGA National for the first time. His ability has played up, but he’s still just +160 for a Top 20. The moral of the matter is to multiply the units to offset the meager kickback.
Webb Simpson (+120 = Top 40) … The line for the finish says it all as it concerns the recurring narrative of his struggles, so you might as well plunk a unit down because of his cachet. Of course, he’s gone 11 starts without a top 50, and he hasn’t seen PGA National since a T36 in 2019, but there’s a bonus with the lightning in the bottle.
Luke Donald (+800 = Top English) … The top-rated Brit of the seven in the field is Aaron Rai, who is one of my Sleepers, and Donald is the longest among them for the prop that I’ve selected, but he has four more starts at PGA National (11 total) than the other six combined. That has to count for something on a course and in conditions that cater to his small ball. Furthermore, while you’re hurling reasons back at me for why it’s foolish to invest even a fraction of a unit, none of the others are presenting enough zing to eliminate pause for the same consideration. Plan to play a similar game with me with him at Harbour Town if he squeezes into that field.
NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.
Joseph Bramlett (-125 = Top 40)
Cam Davis (+225 = Top Australian)
Padraig Harrington (+100 = Top 40)
Peter Malnati (+138 = Top 40)
Andrew Novak (+180 = Top 40)
Brian Stuard (+300 = Top 40)
Jhonattan Vegas (+110 = Top South American)
Cameron Percy … Back after it for the first time since calling it quits after one round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. An explanation wasn’t released, but don’t sweat it. This week’s bonus appearance at PGA National is a primer for his annual noisemaker in Puerto Rico.
Sam Ryder … With a 3-for-3 slate at PGA National that includes top 10s in the last two editions, this was a kick in the clubface. However, after a T4-T20-T20 burst recently, he’s set up for bigger things in the long-term. Sits 49th in the FedExCup.
Alex Noren … Opting for rest ahead of the API. After missing the cut in the last two stops on the West Coast Swing, a break might be exactly what he needs.
David Lipsky … After three straight MCs, he finished T62 at Riviera and hung onto a spot just inside the top 70 of the FedExCup (at 68th) for automatic entry into next week’s designated event at Bay Hill. It was the checkpoint for that conduit.
Patrick Rodgers … Although he went just 1-for-4 on the West Coast Swing, he’s still 30th in the FedExCup thanks to a dynamite fall. He withdrew early at Waialae, too, and I wrote about how unusual that was as his first eligible place to play in 2023, but it’s possible if not likely that he’s feeling out a schedule that works best for him. After all, he’s earned it with his position.
Lanto Griffin ... After withdrawing early from the WM to rest his back, he withdrew during his second round of the Genesis with an injured rib. Although it’s not surprising that he’s exiting Honda early as well, it raises into question not only when he’ll be ready to go again but also how often he could be teeing it up. Draw the leash in a little.
Austin Smotherman … Just 5-for-12 with a pair of early top 25s on the season, so he’s yet to exploit his second chance of rising into the top 125 via Eligibility Points at the conclusion of the 2021-22 season.
Danny Lee … Exits at 118th in the FedExCup.
Power Ranking Golfer Result
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) Result
Taylor Moore (+333 = Top 20) MC
Jhonattan Vegas (+375 = Top 20) T56
Golfer (recommended bet) Result
Wild Card: Sam Burns (+115 = Top 20) MC
*Also Starring: Tiger Woods (+160 = Make the Cut) T45
Also Starring: Will Zalatoris (+240 = Miss the Cut) 4th
Also Starring: Sungjae Im (+300 = Miss the Cut) T56
Also Starring: Tom Kim (+250 = Top Korean) T45 (second-best among Koreans)
Also Starring: Hideki Matsuyama (-160 = Top 40) MC
*Tap-In: Tommy Fleetwood (+100 = Top 40) T20
*Tap-In: Rickie Fowler (+190 = Top 20) T20
Tap-In: Dylan Frittelli (-105 = Top South African) MC
Tap-In: James Hahn (+190 = Top 40) MC
*Tap-In: Matt Kuchar (+140 = Top 40) 8th
Tap-In: Adrian Meronk (+120 = Top 40) T45
*Tap-In: Keith Mitchell (-110 = Top 40) 5th
Tap-In: Alex Noren (-120 = Top 40) MC
*Tap-In: Sam Ryder (+130 = Top 40) T20
*Tap-In: Nick Taylor (+110 = Top 40) T33
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Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on
