Guardians’ win total opens at 86.5, highest in A.L. Central

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Opening day for the 2023 MLB season is now just six weeks away and the usual litany of preseason futures odds are out. While slight variations exist from sportsbook to sportsbook, oddsmakers across the nation are in agreement about the best team in the A.L. Central: the Cleveland Guardians have the best preseason odds to win the division and the highest MLB win total among the quintet.

And it’s not particularly close.

The opening odds at DraftKings Ohio have the Guardians at 86.5 wins, three clear of the Chicago White Sox (83.5), four ahead of the Minnesota Twins (82.5), and 16 and 17 ahead of the Detroit Tigers (70.5) and Kansas City Royals (69.5), respectively.

The odds to win the division show Cleveland at +135, with second-favorite Chicago at +195.

The odds represent a dramatic change in the balance of power compared to this time last year. The White Sox were -200 preseason favorites to win the A.L. Central in 2022. Their win total of 91.5 was a full 16 games ahead of Cleveland (75.5).

The 2022 season obviously didn’t play out as oddsmakers projected. The Guardians won the division handily with a 92-70 record. Not only did they eclipse their preseason win total by 16.5 games, they finished the year with a double-digit lead over all of their division rivals. Chicago finished second in the A.L. Central in 2022 at 81-81, a full 11 games behind the Guardians.

While Cleveland’s record did, to a small extent, outperform its production (their Expected Win/Loss Record was 89-73 based on run differential), they were the best team in the Central by almost every metric. They scored the most runs among the five teams (698 ... it’s true, look it up) and surrendered by far the fewest (634). Their +64 run differential was fifth in the A.L. as a whole.

Cleveland was far from a perfect team in 2022. Their 698 runs scored was 39 fewer than any other division winner. They finished second-last in the majors in home runs (127), exceeding only the Tigers (110).

Management made a move to address the lack of power this offseason by adding free agent first baseman/designated hitter Josh Bell. But don’t expect the acquisition to turn this lineup into top-tier offense. The 30-year-old’s best season came with the Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2019 when he clubbed 37 homers. After an injury-plagued 2020, he managed another 27 home runs in 144 games in 2021, but that number declined to 17 in 156 games last season, split between Washington and San Diego.

Declining power notwithstanding, Bell projects to hit cleanup for the Guardians in 2023, with Steven Kwan leading off, Amed Rosario in the two-hole, and Jose Ramirez third.

The Guardians start their season on Thursday, March 30th, with a three-game road set against the Seattle Mariners. Fans might not learn much about how Cleveland compares to its division rivals until considerably later. None of the Guardians’ first five series come against an A.L. Central team, and they only face one division foe before May (Detroit).

Still in search of their first championship since 1948, Cleveland is currently a +2700 longshot in the 2023 World Series odds.

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