Updated Guardians futures bets including World Series, playoffs and more

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The MLB season started out holding so much promise for the Cleveland Guardians. They were coming off a 92-70 season, an American League Central Division title and within a win of going to the ALCS for the first time since Cleveland lost the 2016 World Series to the Chicago Cubs.

Suiting up an entire starting nine, pitching rotation and closer all under the age of 30, the future seemed so bright for the Guardians. Fast forward to the present, though, and things are tense.

Sitting at 14-17, Cleveland is second in the AL Central. The Guardians trail the division-leading Minnesota Twins by three games. They’re showing a dismal run differential of -19.

This disappointing launch to the 2023 campaign has not gone unnoticed by the leading online sports betting sites. Cleveland’s odds to succeed this season are lengthening in every category.

At the outset of the season, the Guardians were at a betting line of +2300 to win the World Series. That line has climbed to +2800. Cleveland is the 14th betting choice to win the Fall Classic.

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As far as winning the AL pennant, the Guardians are now the eighth pick at odds of +1800. To open the season, they were the +1300 sixth pick.

However, the biggest hit that the Guardians have taken in a specific betting market has to do with the team’s chances of maintaining their reign over the AL Central. With the first pitches were thrown on opening day, Cleveland was set as the +129 chalk to again top the division. Today, that favorite’s role belongs to the Twins. They’re the odds-on -220 chalk to capture the AL Central flag. The Guardians are the +225 second betting choice.

Looking to where it’s been going wrong for Cleveland, start right off by checking in at Progressive Field. It’s been more like Regressive Field for the Guardians this season. Cleveland is 4-8 straight up at home. Granted, the Guardians weren’t a dominant home team last year. At 46-35, they were the only division winner not to earn at least 50 victories at home. But they weren’t dropping two out of every three home games.

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There’s a number of categories in which Cleveland is showing to be a mediocre ball club so far into 2023. The Guardians are also 4-8 against teams with .500 or better records. They’re 4-9 against left-handed starters, 7-9 in one-run games and 1-2 against opponents from within the AL Central. Cleveland was a stellar 47-29 when facing teams within the division last season.

One aspect that was lacking from Cleveland’s hitting attack in 2022 was any semblance of a power game. The Guardians were 14th in home runs (127) and 11th in slugging (.383). During the offseason, two players with pop in their bat - catch Mike Zunino and DH Josh Bell - were acquired to ramp up Cleveland’s long-ball count.

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The good news is that Bell shares the team lead in homers. The bad news is he’s sharing it at three dingers with Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez. That puts them in a tie for 116th overall in MLB. Cleveland is again 14th in the AL and 29th in MLB in home runs with a dismal 17 long balls. They’ve dropped to 30th (.338) - last in the majors - in slugging.

The Guardians are also 29th in OPS (.645), 24th in on-base percentage (.307) and 25th in runs scored (116). That works out to 3.74 runs per game.

According to data compiled by FanGraphs.com, Cleveland rates 29th in baseball in hard hit percentage (26.3%) and 30th in barrel rate (4.9%).

In Friday’s opener of an early-season big series against the division-leading Twins, the Guardians are dropping veteran Zach Plesac from the starting rotation in favor of Peyton Battenfield. With Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie both on IL, it means three of Cleveland’s starting five of a year ago are out of the rotation a month into the season.

Plesac is 1-1 with 7.59 ERA and 1.96 WHIP over five starts, so replacing him isn’t surprising. Tanner Bibee made his second start earlier this week, as Cleveland is looking to inject some young arms into the rotation.

Overall, Cleveland sits in the middle of the pack in most MLB pitching stats. The Guardians are 12th in ERA (3.95) and 14th in WHIP (1.28), but an alarming 20th in home runs surrendered (20).

This three-game weekend set against Minnesota opens a nine-game homestand and the potential to change the narrative about the Guardians. Losers of two in a row and four of five, should Cleveland take the series from the Twins and put together a solid run of home-field success, those odds on the Guardians will certainly be shortening, so right now might be a good time get a little action on Cleveland in the division odds.

On the other hand, should the Guardians find themselves further back in the AL Central race come Monday, is it too early in the season to suggest that the outlook for Cleveland is already growing grim?

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