Haydock and Sandown tips: Best value bets for Saturday July 8
Value Bet tips: Saturday, July 8
1pt win Equality in 1.50 Sandown at 13/2 (William, BetVictor, Unibet)
1pt win Chillhi in 2.05 Haydock at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Spirit Catcher in 2.25 Sandown at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Euchen Glen in 3.15 Haydock at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Honour not out of Eclipse picture
Racing has a wonderful habit of producing some magic when any big Saturday feature is billed as a two-horse race and there’s no question Dubai Honour should also be in the Coral-Eclipse conversation this weekend.
That’s clearly doing West Wind Blows something of a disservice given this is in fact a four-horse race - also featuring market leaders Paddington and Emily Upjohn - and Simon and Ed Crisford’s four-year-old may be at a tactical advantage if getting a soft lead, but in terms of potentially beating the big two, the only bet to seriously consider would have to Dubai Honour.
Second in the Champion Stakes at the tail-end of his own three-year-old campaign, William Haggas’s charge wasn’t quite able to replicate that level of form through 2022, but the trainer was on record stating how much he thought the five-year-old had thrived this winter and so it proved with back-to-back Group 1 wins on his travels in Australia.
Only third when last seen at Sha Tin in April, there was no disgrace in that effort given the prolific home favourite Romantic Warrior got first run on him when the tempo increased, and any rain that falls at Sandown will surely be in Dubai Honour's favour.
The switch to Sandown is a reasonably attractive angle too. He's never raced here before but loads of his better efforts have come on right-handed tracks (including wins at Deauville, Longchamp, Rosehill and Randwick) and the famously punishing finish at this course should bring his stamina into play providing Ryan Moore on Paddington puts a bit of pressure on West Wind Blows through the initial couple of furlongs.
Double-figure odds are quite tempting, but I can’t quite justify a bet at the weights so will focus on the Coral Challenge which is a cracking handicap and wide-open to boot, with half a dozen horses turning out again after meeting in the Royal Hunt Cup 17 days ago.
Catch me if you can...
Perotto was a big gamble in the build-up to Ascot and went off 7/1 favourite for the straight course cavalry charge following an eyecatching stable debut in the Victoria Cup, but he backed out of things tamely in the end after over-racing through the middle section of the race and now goes in a first-time hood.
It's a long time since he last got his head in front and I’m still not totally convinced he wants a stiff mile, despite winning the Britannia Stakes over this trip a couple of years ago when still trained by Marcus Tregonining. Well handicapped, yes, but I’m happy enough to oppose the horse again here.
Intellogent’s Hunt Cup run was far too bad to be true and if you’re willing to look beyond it then he’s starting to look very well treated off a 6lb lower mark (100) than when starting the season in Group 3 company just three runs back.
However, he's hardly a massive price given that torrid last run and I reckon this could be a great opportunity for Charlie Johnston's SPIRIT CATCHER to break a frustrating run of seconds.
His placed form behind the likes of Point Lynas, Belhaven and Awaal towards the end of last season worked out very well and he’s not done a whole lot wrong in two starts this term either.
Given the general campaigning of the Johnston horses, you'd imagine Spirit Catcher must have had some sort of hold-up in the spring having not made his return to action until the end of June, but he was a good second to an in-form filly in Wild Side at Redcar, before just missing out to William Haggas’s hot favourite Lattam only six days on at Newcastle last Thursday. He would surely have won had he not hung slightly to the left late on – perhaps a sign that he hadn’t quite reached peak fitness.
The fact he's back out again just over a week later shows he must now be really thriving for his racing and I suspect there could be a bit more to come from this four-year-old as the year goes on.
He runs off the same mark (87) as at Redcar and Newcastle, a rating he defied when winning on his seasonal return at Musselburgh last April, and could have things his own way out in front under Andrea Atzeni if getting away on terms from stall 12.
A slightly lower draw might have helped in that regard but it’s a disadvantage to be too low on the seven-furlong and mile course here, so as a front-runner I’d rather he was drawn where he is than in any of the lowest three gates. The distinct lack of pace elsewhere in the field should be a major help too.
The Hills are alive
Earlier on, EQUALITY looks a sprinter to keep on side after his demolition job at Windsor last month and he’s a very fair price in the Coral Charge.
Charlie Hills’ horse was well beaten on his two previous attempts in Group company at the start of the season, but he pulled far too hard early on in bad conditions at Newbury before having next to no chance from stall one against an exaggerated draw bias in Haydock’s Temple Stakes towards the end of May.
The Windsor win was seriously impressive, the five-year-old sitting handily throughout and drawing right away from his six rivals to defy an official mark of 102 (replay below).
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That performance puts him squarely in the mix for a race like this – in fact he’s now only 2lb lower than last weekend’s Chipchase winner Tiber Flow, who has to concede the selection 3lb in weight, so he’s a massive player on the face of it.
William Buick stays loyal, with Jamie Spencer initially down to ride stablemate Equilateral (non-runner), and I like the draw in stall four as he should get a lovely tow into it from Marshman and Lady Hamana down on his inside, plus Diligent Harry who is posted just a little wider in six.
Hills enjoyed some brilliant days with Magical Memory for the Kenney Valley ownership and it’s surely noteworthy that horse also won a handicap from a mark of 102 before going on to taste success at Group level.
Ellison and Chill' at Haydock
Two good betting races on the card up at Haydock, where the showers through raceday are anticipated to bring an even greater volume of rainfall. That probably won’t be an issue for the giant Pledgeofallegiance who has improved a great deal for the fitting of cheekpieces and step up in distance - in typical Prescott fashion – but he’s got a bunch of potential rivals for the early lead in the bet365 Handicap which could make things much tougher than at Doncaster last month.
Rain isn’t going to be an issue for the Haggas-trained Lordship either but he’s up 8lb for a narrow Yarmouth win and is priced up very defensively.
At the odds I’d rather back the Brian Ellison-trained CHILLHI, who looks to be crying out for this sort of test and should get a strong pace to aim at.
He crossed the line still full of running in a Chester handicap over the extended mile and a half last time out at the end of May, having been forced to check a couple of times in the straight, and gets another shot off the same mark here over the longer trip.
He actually won a Newcastle nursery (1m) off just 1lb lower last September – a race that worked out pretty well subsequently – and he seemed to handle a bit of cut in the ground perfectly well when beaten just a couple of lengths in a bunched finish over 10 furlongs at Ascot two starts back. The new trip looks the key here, though.
Euchen do it again
The same connections have a live contender in the bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap too in Onesmoothoperator, but at an even bigger price the old boy EUCHEN GLEN must be worth another dart off his current perch of 99.
He looked on great terms with himself when a close fourth at Ayr last time, ending up racing alone in the centre of the track with the first three all tight to the stands’ rail, and it has been coming for him this term after a promising comeback at Musselburgh before a fairly luckless run through the Chester Cup.
Euchen Glen has won an Old Borough Cup off a higher mark over this course and distance in the past and every drop of rain is likely to see his price contract further. You’re going back to July 2021 for his last success, but the nine-year-old looks a cracking each-way bet here.
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