Heat vs. Hawks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets from model on 86-58 run
A year after advancing to the Eastern Conference finals, the Atlanta Hawks find themselves in a potential elimination game in the first round of the 2022 NBA playoffs on Tuesday night against the Miami Heat. Miami won the first two games in Miami and then earned a split in Atlanta to bring the series back home with a 3-1 edge as Game 5 approaches. Atlanta lists Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) and Clint Capela (knee) as questionable, while Lou Williams (back) has been ruled out. Miami will be without Jimmy Butler (knee) and Kyle Lowry (hamstring) and the Heat list P.J. Tucker (calf) and Caleb Martin (ankle) as questionable.
FTX Arena in Miami will host this 7 p.m. ET tip. The latest Heat vs. Hawks odds from Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the 4.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points is set at 215.5. Before making any Hawks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA playoff 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:
- Hawks vs. Heat point spread: Miami -4.5
- Hawks vs. Heat over-under total: 215.5 points
- Hawks vs. Heat money line: Miami -190, Atlanta +160
- ATL: The Hawks are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a straight-up defeat.
- MIA: The Heat have covered five straight games as a home favorite.
Featured Game| Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Why the Heat can cover
Miami's defense has shined in this series, and Game 4 was a prime example of that. The Heat held the Hawks to just 86 points, almost 28 points below their season-long average. For the series, the Hawks are averaging just 98.3 points per game.
Several betting trends work in Miami's favor in this one as well. Miami has the far better season-long cover rate -- 57 percent compared to 40 percent -- and Atlanta has struggled mightily on the road, going 14-29-1 ATS this year. With six covers in eight tries against Atlanta this season, Miami certainly has the potential to not only close out the Hawks but also cover the spread.
Why the Hawks can cover
Last year, the upstart Hawks appeared to be a year ahead of schedule as they advanced to the conference finals as a No. 5 seed. Their path included an upset of the top-seeded Philadelphia 76ers and featured a remarkable three road victories to get the job done.
Although Young has been erratic in this series, he has already shown an ability to thrive in road environments and high-pressure situations. He had 25 points and seven assists in Game 2 at Miami in which the Hawks stayed within striking distance most of the way before falling 115-105.
Another positive for Atlanta in the Game 5 defeat came from defensive stalwart De'Andre Hunter, who is arguably its second-most important player and had one of his best performances of the season. Hunter scored a team-high 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting while adding three rebounds.
How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Heat vs. Hawks picks at SportsLine.
