Heat vs. Raptors picks and odds: Bet on Toronto to cover in a low-scoring game
The Toronto Raptors wrap up a four-game home stand tonight with a critical game against the Miami Heat.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has largely taken care of business at home this season while Miami has struggled to produce on the road. That has us backing the Raptors against the spread in what is likely to be a low-scoring game.
NBA odds as of 9:20 a.m. on 03/28/2023.
Heat vs. Raptors picks
Best Bet: Raptors -3 (-114)
Toronto is undefeated at Scotiabank Arena since February 10 outside of a blip in the radar to the Indiana Pacers last week.
The Raptors lost that game by four points and it was the only time in their last nine home games that they failed to at least push on the spread (7-1-1 ATS). The team bounced back nicely with convincing wins over the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards and should be able to handle the Heat.
Miami is an awful 14-20-1 ATS on the road this season and has only covered the spread in three of its past 10 road games.
That’s mainly because the Heat are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. They own the fifth-worst offensive rating in basketball (109.2) and score the fewest points per game (109.1).
Miami’s offence is playing better as of late — it sits 10th in offensive rating in March — but Toronto’s defence is improving as well.
The Raptors have the sixth-best defensive rating this month (113.1) and are holding opponents to just 107.8 points per game at home in that span.
Key stat: Toronto is 3-0 ATS against Miami this year.
Quick picks
Under 219.5 points (-110): For as bad as Miami’s offence has been all season its defence has stood true. The Heat have the 12th-best defensive rating in basketball (112.9) and hold opponents to the second-fewest PPG (109.9).
These teams typically play in rock fights — each of their past two meetings has fallen under this total — and we expect more grind-it-out basketball tonight.
The under is 4-1 in Miami’s last five road games.
Raptors first quarter ML (-127): Toronto owns the ninth-best first-quarter scoring differential in the NBA (+1.0) while Miami sits all the way in 23rd (-0.9).
The Raptors have jumped out to a first-quarter lead in five of their past six home games, with an average scoring differential of +7.2 in those contests.
Look for Nick Nurse’s squad to establish a lead early and hold on to it.
