Bulls vs. Raptors picks and odds: Back Toronto to cover at home

The Toronto Raptors look to get back in the win column tonight when they host the struggling Chicago Bulls.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s four-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday but Nick Nurse’s squad has still won seven of its past nine games. Chicago, meanwhile, has lost each of its past four road games and is beginning to slip out of the play-in picture. We’re expecting the Raptors to cover a modest spread in a low-scoring game.

NBA odds as of 9:43 a.m. on 02/28/2023.

Bulls vs. Raptors picks

Best Bet: Raptors -4.5 (-112)

Chicago is a truly awful road team and we don’t think it’ll fare much better tonight.

The Bulls have failed to cover in each of their last four road games and own the sixth-worst road ATS record in the NBA (12-16-1). Things have gotten particularly rough for them since the New Year, too. The Bulls have lost nine of their 12 road games since January 1 with a dismal 4-8 ATS record.

Toronto has been buzzing at Scotiabank Arena lately, too, and has won by five-plus points in seven of its last 11 home contests.

We also think Nurse has been getting the most out of this squad despite its recent loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Since acquiring Jakob Poeltl the Raptors are 4-2 and are averaging 110.2 points per game. They should be able to outpace a Bulls team with the seventh-worst offensive rating in the league (112.1).

Toronto and Chicago have split their season series 1-1 with each team winning at home. The Raptors won by nine points when the Bulls visited earlier this season.

Key stat: Toronto is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games.

Quick picks

Under 220.5 points (-110): The Bulls’ offence hasn’t been clicking all season but that doesn’t mean they mail it in on the defensive end. Chicago boasts the sixth-best defensive rating in the league (111.3) and that results in plenty of unders.

How many? Well, 14 of Chicago’s last 17 games have gone under and the Bulls own the second-best unders percentage in basketball (59%).

Bulls under 108.5 points (-118): Chicago has fallen under this number in six of its past eight games and only managed 104 points in Toronto earlier this season.

The Raptors have conceded an average of 112.2 points in their past five home games, which is slightly above this mark.

That said, the Bulls’ offence is anemic and we expect the Raps to tighten the screws on defence tonight.