Heat vs. Warriors NBA Betting Odds, Prediction & Trends

The Miami Heat head to the Bay Area to face the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night at 10:00 PM ET on NBA TV. Can the Warriors cover the 2.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Heat vs. Warriors betting prediction.

The Miami Heat are 18-12 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 14-16 ATS this season.

The Golden State Warriors are 15-15 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 15-15 ATS this season.

543 Miami Heat (+2.5) at 544 Golden State Warriors (-2.5); o/u 227.5

10:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, December 28, 2023

Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

TV: NBA TV

Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 67% of public bettors are currently backing the Warriors when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Heat small forward Jimmy Butler (calf), forward Duncan Robinson (ankle), and point guard Kyle Lowry (general soreness) are all listed as questionable to play against the Warriors on Thursday night. Butler is averaging 21.5 points per game while Robinson is sinking 3.2 three-pointers per contest this season.

Miami shooting guard Josh Richardson (back) and small forward Caleb Martin (ankle) are both listed as doubtful to play in San Francisco on Thursday. Martin is averaging 11.0 points per game while Richardson has logged 10.0 points per game on the campaign.

Golden State guard Gary Payton II won’t suit up on Thursday night in his club’s home clash with Miami. He’s still working his way back from a torn right calf injury that he suffered at the end of November. Payton is averaging 5.9 points and 3.1 rebounds per game this season.

Warriors power forward Draymond Green is still serving his league-imposed indefinite suspension due to his role in an on-court incident on December 12th. Green could be back as soon as January 4th, according to a report by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Draymond Green was averaging 9.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game for the Warriors before getting suspended.

Miami is 6-9 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season.

Miami is 13-18 ATS when playing an opponent on 2 or 3 days of rest since the start of last season.

Golden State is 36-25-1 ATS as the home team since the start of last season.

Golden State is 4-2 ATS in non-conference games this year.

Miami could be down several players in this game, so it’s worth monitoring the injury report all the way up to game time. The Heat have been subpar against the West this season as they are 2-3 ATS in non-conference games. Miami has also struggled against teams outside of their division as they are 10-13 ATS in non-division games in 2023.

Golden State is 66-61 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2020 season, and that figure ranks tenth in the NBA over that stretch. The Warriors are 108-88-1 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest since the start of the 2019 season. That mark is the third-best in the NBA in that span. The Warriors had won 5 straight contests before losing at the Nuggets on Christmas Day, but I like them to get back on track with a victory by three points or more here. I’m laying the points with Golden State on Thursday.