2024 Cognizant Classic odds, picks, sleepers: Rory McIlroy overpriced, Eric Cole among best bets

The PGA Tour heads to Florida this weekend for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. The start of the Florida swing will be a little different than it has been the last few years — and I’m not talking about the sponsorship change. PGA National has undergone a bit of a facelift to help attract modern PGA Tour members. The rough has been shortened while the fairways have been expanded. The long par-4 10th hole has been converted to the shortest par 5 on the golf course, and scoring is expected to improve.

The Bear Trap at PGA National, which consists of the 15th through 17th holes, will still be the deciding factor for most players this week. Water is in play throughout the golf course and wind could be a factor on Friday especially. The players who control their golf ball from tee to green the best while avoiding the big misses off the tee gain a huge advantage. The Bermuda greens reward putting more than most golf courses so we need to factor in Bermuda specialists as well as putters who are converting their chances from 6’ to 12’.

The changes in the golf course make building a model for this week more difficult. If we used our models from last year, we would be factoring in driving accuracy a lot more than we are this year. With the added par 5, we need to include par 5 scoring as well. Course history has been a big factor over the years here, but the course changes may loosen that up a bit. My model is going to rely on Florida scoring, strokes gained on approach, Bermuda putting, strokes gained around the green, sand save percentage, distance from the edge of the fairway (avoiding big misses off the tee into the water), and PGA National history.

The Champion course at PGA National has hosted the Honda Classic and now Cognizant Classic every year since 2007.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Course: PGA National Resort (The Champion) — Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Designers: Tom and George Fazio; redesigned in 2014 by Jack Nicklaus

Yardage: 7,147 yards

Par: 71

Average green size: 7,000 square feet

Green type: Bermuda

Course Changes: The long par-4 10th hole has been converted to a 531-yard par 5. The Champion Course has added a significant amount of fairway to the course. The rough has been cut down to 2 and ¼ inches from 3 inches.

Past champions: Chris Kirk 2023, Sepp Straka 2022, Matt Jones 2021, Sungjae Im 2020

Betting Slip

Cameron Young +2200 has not won a golf tournament on the PGA Tour yet. I find that hard to believe, but it’s true. He hasn’t won a tournament since winning twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021. He has eleven top-three finishes since earning his PGA Tour card without winning. I’m taking him this week because he is back to being an elite ball striker, gaining over 5.4 strokes ball striking in his last two tournaments. He finished T16 here in 2022, so he has experience at PGA National and gets the bonus of another par 5 to dominate. He has to be better around the green to contend here, but he has shown the ability to make birdies and save pars from off the green at major championships.

Eric Cole +2500 is the number one player in my model and hits in every major category for me, besides big misses off the tee. Cole gets a big boost with his putting numbers on Bermuda greens and in the distances needed for this golf tournament. Last year’s rookie of the year lost in a playoff here in 2023 and hasn’t slowed down a bit in 2024.

Keith Mitchell +4000 is back to striping it off the tee, gaining strokes off the tee in seven straight. He had some injuries last year that contributed to his inconsistency, but he is starting 2024 fully healthy. He won here as a long shot in 2019 and had a hard time as defending champion, missing the cut. He gained over eight strokes on approach last week, and only a shaky putter kept him from contending. I expect him to bounce back this week on the Bermuda greens and contend for another win at PGA National.

Sepp Straka +4000 started the 2023-2024 season well with a second-place finish at the Hero and gaining more than 4 strokes on approach on his way to a T12 at the Sentry in Hawaii. But he hasn’t been able to build on it. His putter has gone cold, and his iron play has been below his standards. He enjoys PGA National with four straight made cuts with a win and a T5 in his last two tries.

Sleeper

Robert MacIntyre +11000 is coming off of a T6 at the Mexico Open, where he finally put his entire game together. He gained across the board, with ball striking being particularly strong as he gained more than 7.6 strokes on the field. His putter was an issue for him early this season as he is trying to establish himself as a PGA Tour member. He worked his way inside the top five on the Aon Swing 5 to get a toehold on the final position to qualify for Bay Hill, and he will need to build on that this week to fend off the likes of Doug Ghim, Erik van Rooyen, and Maverick McNealy.

DFS Plays

Rory McIlroy $12,200 comes into the tournament as the betting favorite and will have to deal with a little bit of a different scenario when it comes to preparation as he teed it up in the latest The Match under the lights alongside Max Homa, Rose Zhang, and Lexi Thompson. He looked good playing for charity, but paying this much for Rory McIlroy means he has to win or come in second with a huge DFS score to pay off. I like the new pricing for these tournaments because it changes how we think about building lineups. Leaving cash on the table is not a bad thing if you are going to fade McIlroy this week.

Cameron Young $10,700 See above.

Russell Henley $10,200 hasn’t been quite as sharp as he was in August of 2023 when he reeled off three straight top-eight finishes. He, of course, contended in Hawaii at the Sony Open, but beyond that, he hasn’t put it all together. The move back to Bermuda greens should bring his game back to life. He did gain more than 3.3 strokes on approach at the Genesis Invitational, so it’s not as if he was struggling. He just wasn’t as sharp on or around the greens. The former winner at PGA National may not have such an advantage with his accuracy off the tee with the changes, but he is still in play for me.

Eric Cole $9,900 See above.

Byeong Hun An $9,500 is coming off of a T16 at the Genesis Invitational, where he lost more than 3.7 strokes on the green. He has some nice course history here at PGA National with a 4th place finish in 2020 and should bounce back with the putter on the Bermuda greens.

Shane Lowry $9,300 has four straight made cuts here with back-to-back top-five finishes. He enjoys this golf course and probably should have won in 2022, but it wasn’t to be. He has gained strokes on approach in three straight but has been on and off with the putter for a while now. I expect him to bounce back at a course he loves, but I wish I was paying a little less with his recent form.

Daniel Berger $9,200 is still knocking off the rust from his long-term injury, but he has looked pretty good. This price is a little too high to pay, even if he has two top-four finishes in his last two tries here. If you do want to take a flier and put him in a single-entry lineup or as a pivot, he did gain over 3.9 strokes on approach at the WM Phoenix Open, and his return to Bermuda greens should help his short game.

Keith Mitchell $9,000 See above.

Stephan Jaeger $8,800 has been very good for a long time now. “Very good” might be stretching it, but you can’t argue with 22 cuts made in a row. He has two top-three finishes in his last three starts and has made the cut here in his last three tries. He has improved his finish in the last two years at PGA National and is coming off of a week where he gained across the board.

Matthieu Pavon $8,700 hasn’t played since following up his win at the Farmers Insurance Open with a 3rd place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He pops in my model despite not having the amount of rounds I would like to see.

Sepp Straka $8,600 See above.

Rasmus Højgaard $8,500 has been a staple at the top of the leaderboard on the DP World Tour despite being only 22 years old. I won’t hold it against him that his big brother let some of my teams down at the Mexico Open. His lack of course history has me a little cautious when it comes to the amount I’m going to use him this week, but I will be playing him.

Beau Hossler $8,300 has made 11 cuts in a row and has three straight made cuts here before he took last year off. With a big week, he has a chance to sneak inside the top 10 on the Aon Next 10 to qualify for next week’s signature event. His ball striking has cooled off a bit, but I’m not going to ignore him this week.

Adam Svensson $7,700 has three straight made cuts here, including a top-10 finish in 2022. He is coming off a T10 at the Genesis Invitational, where he gained over 2 strokes on approach.

Thorbjørn Olesen $7,700 comes down in price big time this week and should be considered for your lineups despite his poor numbers off the tee. Gaining over a stroke on approach in nine straight tournaments is tough to ignore.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,600 has two straight made cuts here and is very high in two different models I ran for this week based on his form this year.

Mark Hubbard $7,500 sees his price fall after struggling a bit last week, but he has four straight made cuts here and is inside the top 12 in my model this week.

Erik van Rooyen $7,400 has continued to struggle around the green, but it hasn’t hurt him, as he has four top 25’s in his last six tournaments.

Low-priced options

Billy Horschel $7,000

Doug Ghim $7,000

Ben Griffin $6,800

Carson Young $6,700

Robert MacIntyre $6,500 See above.

Justin Lower $6,400

C.T. Pan $6,200

Dylan Wu $6,100

Andrew Novak $5,900

Jorge Campillo $5,700

Bud Cauley $5,500

Parker Coody $5,100

One and Done

Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Spreadsheet tracking who we have used can be found here.

Standings

Hugh Kellenberger $2,364,690.80Dennis Esser: $1,333,917

Brody Miller $766,587.83

Brody Miller: JT Poston. There have been three signature events in 2024. Poston has finished top 20 in all three, including coming off a T10 at Riviera. His only bad this week (missed cut in Phoenix) was an uncharacteristic bad putting week, not anything indicative of his game. He’s been sneaky fantastic this year.

Dennis Esser: I’m kicking myself a bit for using Eric Cole earlier this year. Cole is going to be very popular, and fading him is a decent game theory strategy in One and Done if you can pick the right player this week. I’m forced to look at Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, and Byeong Hun An for my one-and-done teams. I’m taking Russell Henley this week, hoping that the course changes don’t take too much away from his advantage here.

Hugh Kellenberger: Eric Cole has Sungjae Im-like dedication to making starts — Cole had 37 of them last year as he wrapped up PGA Tour rookie of the year. And he played the first seven weeks of the 2024 season, with five top 25s and a T10 to show for it. After a rare week off he’s back at Palm Beach, where he lost in a playoff last year. A horse for the course who comes in rested? I’ll take Cole.