Horse racing tips: Best bets for Kensington, Gosford with Shayne O’Cass
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
KENSINGTON
BEST BET
Race 1 No. 1: EMPEROR
Placed in the Breeders’ Plate on debut, the son of I Am Invincible has looked razor sharp winning his two trials at Ballina in recent times.
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No. 2: TOESONTHENOSE
Hasn’t let the side down in any of his nine starts. Drawn well and is on his way through the grades.
VALUE BET
Race 4 No. 1: OUTLANDOS
Ran third in the Magic Millions Trophy and fourth in the Australia Day Cup after that. He is crying out for the 2400m again.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4, 7
Race 6: 4, 5, 15
Race 7: 1, 2, 10, 11
Race 8: 4, 7, 12, 15
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Nash Rawiller should burst out of the blocks in the TAB Jockeys Challenge with Emperor in the opener.
GOSFORD
BEST BET
Race 1 No. 4: AZAYAKA
Sent out all the right signs when she won her Rosehill trial from the front. Looks an ideal starting point for her.
NEXT BEST
Race 6 No. 2: SONIC THE HEDGEHOG
Went down fighting at Newcastle first-up after almost a year off. Go well again.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON
RACE 1
Emperor could turn out to be a ‘cheap’ buy. $460,000 is not a lot these days for an I Am Invincible, much less one whose dam is Jolie Bay. Emperor was placed on debut on the Breeders’ Plate and there is no reason why he won’t be an even better three-year-old. Trialling up a storm near home at Ballina. Waikiki was scratched from Gosford to run here where he is well drawn and Joao Moreira to ride, Waikiki has trialled exceptionally well and has Kensington experience. Ditto the trial stuff about Mount Warning.
Bet: Emperor to win
RACE 2
My Truth was bought as a weanling in NZ for the top price of $107,500 by Anthony Cummings who happened to also buy Beauty Generation off the same farm over there a few years earlier. As for My Truth, you would think he leads and is strong late but it all comes down to pressure. Cleverly-named Naval College, a son of Dartmouth, signed off of his short UK career with a commanding win at Lingfield over 2414m. Trials down here have been way better than they read. Lyrical Lady is ready for the midweeks now.
Bet: My Truth to win
RACE 3
Toesonthenose has benefited from some precision placement from Mark Newnham. That’s a fact reflected in the Ocean Park gelding’s record of two wins and five placings from nine starts. Ready for 1550m again and barrier four might grant him ‘run of the race’ stuff for Tom Sherry who rides him so well. Stablemate Lehndorff is a ‘staying Snitzel’ so 1550m on Tuesday and more next time is the go. Fleur Du Monde is unbeaten and being on-pace at this venue always helps. Token Capitalist is perfectly tuned for the 1550m and has the best possible draw.
Bet: Toesonthenose to win
RACE 4
Outlandos is at his most effective at 2000m and beyond. The son of Dissident picked up $90,000 when a somewhat unlucky third in the Magic Millions Trophy over 2200m and was fourth to The King’s horse, Chalk Stream, in the 2400m Australia Day Cup. Was better on the Kensington on March 22 than it looks and he trialled really well here last week too. Four of these come through the same seven-horse at Warwick Farm which begs the question; why won’t Causal Connection beat those other three again this time? Why not indeed.
Bet: Outlandos to win, exacta 1 to beat 4
RACE 5
Savagal was sold for $500,000 at Karaka. She is every inch from nose to tail a Savabeel and on top of that, her dam won a Group 1 in NZ and finished second to Single Gaze in the Vinery. Savagal sent out all the right signs at Warwick Farm first-up that she is in for her best preparation yet. Fall For Cindy was dominant in the extreme winning a Kembla maiden on March 18 and frankly it was no surprise to see her in the Group 3 Carbine Club at her next start. She is a well-bred filly with stakes potential. Clear Blonde is the value; she always is.
Bet: Savagal to win, exacta to beat 4, quinella 4, 7
RACE 6
Kissaki bumped into the hugely exciting Once Again My Girl on debut, then went to Muswellbrook and towelled up her rivals. Harder here but she might go onward and upwards to a decent level too. Clear Choice is a flashy son of Choisir ready to make his mark at the midweeks. La Pittrice showed plenty of desire to win her midweek maiden at Warwick Farm on March 15. She fronted up in the Group 3 James H B Carr a month later and boosted her value and enhanced her reputation with a fighting fourth.
Bet: Kissaki to win or if scratched Clear Choice to win
RACE 7
Shadow Vampire is a very particular sort of horse, you might even say one-dimensional. Long story short, he is more or less a fast run 1000m horse where he gets back and makes one run at them. Just needs the Kensington track to play fair with him and he can ambush the lot of them. This is a test for Plundering but he seems quite handy. Market seems to like her, early ones, anyhow. Huge watch on the Lady Jakeo descendant Nasturtium post the throat operation. Command Approved flies first-up and has been trialling like a bomb.
Bet: Shadow Vampire each-way, box trifecta 1, 2, 10, 11
RACE 8
King of The Castle was $17 out to $31 first-up not because he wasn’t and isn’t going well, it was that the 1100m was always likely to be a bit short of his preferred trip. That’s not to say he didn’t run well. If anything he was the eye-catcher and had ‘next time’ and ‘more ground’ written all over him. Lots of these will be flashing home, truly, this race could be run in the last stride. One of the prime candidates for both of those scenarios is Just A Jedi. Same for Steplee, Money From The Sky and more.
Bet: King Of The Castle each-way, Steplee to place, Just A Jedi to place, box trifecta and First 4: Nos. 4, 7, 12, 15, 16
