Horse racing tips: Best bets at Kensington with Ray Thomas

Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 4, No.6: HEADWALL

Trainer Matthew Smith’s unbeaten Headwall resumes but his recent trials have been impressive. He has natural speed and can take advantage of his favourable draw.

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No.5: OUTSIDER

Was run down by a promising filly (Call Di) over the Kensington 1400m last start. The Chris Waller-trained Outsider was runner-up in both starts but looks to have everything in her favour here. Ready to win.

BEST VALUE

Race 6, No.4: POWERFUL PEG

Did well to get up for second after striking trouble at Canterbury. She’s a very consistent filly and looks like she needs 1400m now. She gets in well at the weights after the claim.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 4, 6, 11

Race 5: 1, 2, 10, 13

Race 6: 4, 6

Race 7: 1, 3, 4, 8, 12

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

Godolphin trainer James Cummings has winning chances with Los Padres (race 1), Bon Vivant (race 2) and Lascars (race 4).

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

James McDonald has a very strong book of seven rides with Hollywood Hero (race 3), High Court (race 5) and Arranmore (race 6) early favourites.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR RANDWICK KENSINGTON

RACE 1

Godolphin trainer James Cummings has been enjoying considerable success with his juvenile team this season and he has a strong hand in the opener with Los Padres and Restonica. Los Padres looks hard to beat after showing promise at his first two starts back in December including a close third at Warwick Farm. He’s resuming here but impressed in a recent Rosehill trial. First starter Extreme Spirit has only had the one trial but his closing fifth was eye-catching and significantly James McDonald has taken the ride. Turbulent is a striking colt with a prominent white blaze and his recent trial suggested he will be competitive on debut. Waverley has shown good natural pace in his trials and has the advantage of the inside gate.

Bet: Los Padres to win, watch betting moves for Extreme Spirit

RACE 2

Journalism is a dual acceptor (he’s also in race 7) and is favourite to win both. He’s drawn favourably for this race and the 1550m might suit him better after two runs from a spell. He was too good at Wyong when resuming then went to 1580m and raced outside the leader before being run down near the line at Canterbury. Journalism can lead or take the sit but either way he will be in the controlling position. His main danger is Bon Vivant. He showed promise last season but was off the scene for 10 months before running on strongly for a good third at Warwick Farm when resuming. He will take improvement from that run and the step up to 1550m suits. Atlantic Ocean is ready to improve after two solid runs this campaign and Wategos is usually thereabouts in this grade.

Bet: Journalism to win

RACE 3

Outsider, a well-bred filly by Snitzel, has been runner-up in both her starts including over the Kensington 1400m course two weeks ago. She led for home before the very promising Call Di finished too strongly as the pair put a margin on their chasing rivals. Outsider has drawn well in barrier three, should race on speed again and will be hard to catch. Hollywood Hero has also been placed in his only two starts including most recently at Canterbury when he was edged out near the line. McDonald is staying with Hollywood Hero which is a good pointer for punters. Botanica stuck to the rails and ran well on debut. Mountain Guest is an emerging staying filly and will be doing her best work on the line.

Bet: Box trifecta 1, 2, 5, 9

RACE 4

Headwall takes on Lascars in what might be the race of the day. I’m with Headwall who won both his starts on rain-affected tracks at the provincials last winter. He’s got plenty of speed and could not have been more impressive winning a barrier trial at Hawkesbury in good time. Lascars has drawn just inside Headwall but is likely to take a sit behind his main rival. Lascars was a Caulfield 1000m winner last spring and was tested at Group 3 level but ran unplaced. He resumes off an impressive trial win and he will be finishing strongly. Capital Theatre is bursting to win a race but has to overcome an awkward draw. Rita May was game first-up at Warwick Farm and won’t need to improve much to be in the finish.

Bet: Headwall to win, box trifecta 4, 6, 10, 11

RACE 5

High Court’s effort to finish third behind Claim The Crown at Randwick in Saturday class was full of merit. He was trapped three-wide without cover and forced even wider on the turn but was still a winning chance at the 100m mark before going under by less than a length. He goes back to the midweeks and gets McDonald. Hard to beat. Real Peace is always over the odds but is racing consistently and is suited here. Caesars Palace ran a blinder first-up and will be in this for a long way but his 64.5kg impost could be telling late. Carolina Fire tried hard when third in a Midway last start and drops back to midweek grade and will be very competitive.

Bet: High Court to win, saver on Real Peace each way

RACE 6

Powerful Peg got into an awkward spot on the rails and got shuffled back approaching the turn but she ran on strongly for second behind runaway winner Recommendation at Canterbury. She’s holding her form and gives the impression she will enjoy getting out to 1400m. She gets in well with the claim, too. Arranmore is another racing in very good touch and nearly scored back to back Warwick Farm wins only to find Wollombi too strong last start. Wollombi has since won again to frank the form. So Dazzling is a promising staying filly resuming and although this is likely to be too short, expect her to be charging home. Iconic Dame made a mess of her rivals at Goulburn and stays under notice.

Bet: Powerful Peg to win, saver on So Dazzling each way

RACE 7

Journalism is the one to beat – if he starts in the closer. Trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott also have Journalism in race two where he also looks the one to beat. The Denzel is worth consideration at odds. He nearly pinched the race first-up at Newcastle, leading for a long way only to be caught in the final few bounds. Fitter and the step up to 1400m is in his favour. Ka Bling was disappointing last start but there were excuses. Well drawn here and will get his chance. Jupitus usually needs a run to hit his straps but there was a lot to like about his recent trial.

Bet: Journalism to win, box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 8, 12