Horse racing tips: Best bets for Hawkesbury with Ray Thomas

Daily Telegraph form analyst Ray Thomas gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Hawkesbury on Tuesday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

HAWKESBURY

BEST BET

Race 6 No. 9: GORGEOUS ZARA

Promising staying filly from the John O’Shea stable who has been placed in both her starts including a closing second at the Warwick Farm midweeks late last month. She’s well suited going out to 1800m and is ready to win.

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No. 2: BARMERA

Barmera has finished second in three of his five starts including successive efforts at Hawkesbury and Newcastle in recent weeks. The only knock is the price here as he’s perfectly placed here and should win.

VALUE BET

Race 8 No.5: BLACK DUKE

Despite being winless for 15 months, Black Duke looks hard to beat in the closer. He was luckless at Warwick Farm last start when finishing sixth after being held up for most of the straight. At his peak after three runs form a spell and is good value at near double figure odds

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2,3

Race 6: 8,9,11

Race 7: 3,5,7,10

Race 8: 5,6,9,15

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

Matthew Smith is taking a competitive team to Hawkesbury with Spanish Way (race 3), By Nine and Supra Marnium (race 4), Zambrero (race 7) and Anything Goes (race 8).

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Brad Rawiller is riding plenty of winners despite limited opportunities and he has three very good chances with High Plateau (race 2), Spanish Way (race 3) and Clear Choice (race 4).

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR HAWKESBURY

RACE 1

Moonflower, a well-bred Godolphin filly by champion Lonhro, has shaped promisingly in her two starts including a narrow loss over the Wyong 1300m. The winner, Speak Up, has since won at Eagle Farm and Wyong minor placegetter Ambassadors won next start at Newcastle. The form around Moonflower is very good, she’s drawn to get the right run again and this is her chance. Peace Officer ran in some good two-year-old races last season, had one run for a minor placing earlier in the season but looked in great order winning a Warwick Farm barrier trial earlier this month. Russian Rose was beaten by a smart type at Newcastle and I Say Boom, a half brother to champion Chautauqua, did enough first-up to suggest he can improve.

Bet: Moonflower to win, box trifecta 1,2,5,6

RACE 2

Godolphin can secure the opening two races with progeny of Lonhro as High Plateau looks to maintain the perfect start to his race career. High Plateau is a rising five-year-old but Godolphin has kept him in their system and it was easy to understand why after watching his debut win at Kembla Grange last month. He was very strong through the line to win by a widening two lengths. Promising type and can win again. Tragara is trialling well but is not a certain starter while her stablemate Scream was scratched from Canberra to run here and should be competitive. Thinking Rain showed promise last spring went well behind Tampering in a Kembla Grange barrier trial.

Bet: High Plateau to win

RACE 3

Barmera has been runner-up in three of his five starts including at Hawkesbury and Newcastle in recent weeks. He had to do a bit of work at Newcastle and still looked likely to score only to go under in the final few bounds. Barmera is very short in betting but finds himself in a winnable race. Spanish Way has been looking for this trip and will be running on. Savvy Smart is an improver and worked to the line when fourth at Hawkesbury in the race Barmera finished second. Edgewise was third to the emerging Petersham at Newcastle and won’t be far away.

Bet: Barmera to win

RACE 4

Clear Choice raced on speed and broke clear in the straight to win convincingly and in good time over the Newcastle 1400m. Striking chestnut who won his maiden at just his second start. The step up to 1500m won’t trouble him. The one to beat. Maralago has held his form since winning his maiden at Gosford but is coming back slightly in trip here. Gorshin has only won once in 23 starts but he tries hard and his recent form is consistent. He will be competitive again. See You Again won his maiden by a big margin then finished strongly for third at Gosford. The bigger Hawkesbury track and the step up to 1500m suits him.

Bet: Box trifecta 2,3,4,6

RACE 5

Jedibeel is a three-year-old colt by champion sire Savabeel making his debut. He’s demonstrated plenty of ability in barrier trials winning a Hawkesbury heat with ease last month then finishing fourth at Randwick when deliberately ridden behind the speed. Drawn wide here but has the early tactical speed to negate the draw. Candlelit ran third to High Plateau and Russian Rose on debut and that form reads well for this race. Drawn to get all the favours and will go close. Layin’ Four is over the odds. He’s been placed in two of his four starts and is resuming here off a brilliant barrier trial win. Sir Tom gets back in his races but will be running on strongly.

Bet: Jedibeel to win, saver on Layin’ Four each way

RACE 6

Gorgeous Zara has been placed in her two starts including a closing second at the Warwick Farm midweeks behind Hollywood Hero. The John O’Shea-trained Gorgeous Zara will appreciate getting out to 1800m and is the one to beat. Mountain Guest has been improved by two runs from a spell and she caught the eye at Kembla last start. She is another filly suited by the 1800m trip and is the danger to the favourite. Episodic had successive minor placings at Canterbury and Kensington then there were excuses for her poor showing Canterbury. She is worth another chance. Whatadilemma has each way claims.

Bet: Gorgeous Zara to win

RACE 7

Casual Connection unleashed a powerful surge to win at Newcastle second-up then he stayed at 1600m and ran an even race when sixth in a Midway at Randwick. This is easier and more importantly he gets out to 2000m which is what he needs. Casual Connection is the one to beat but watch market moves for Field Marshall. He has been unplaced in two runs this campaign but his Gosford effort when seventh of nine was a “hidden” run. Field Marshall will also appreciate finally getting out to a middle distance. Condrieu made a run mid-race and then faded from the turn at Wyong. She is better than that and worth another chance. Zambrero’s form surge keeps him under notice.

Bet: Box trifecta 3,5,7,10

RACE 8

Black Duke was held up for a run from the top of the straight and should have finished much closer when sixth at Warwick Farm last start. He has raced well without winning in three runs this preparation but this race sets up well and he will be in the finish. In a race of many chances, Jailbreak is over the odds after a solid first-up effort, Token Capitalist is awkwardly drawn but shows promise and is trialling well, while Transplant is an in-form mare drawn to get the right run.