Horse racing tips: James Boyle's best bets for Glorious Goodwood Day Three
13:50 Goodwood – Royal Rhyme – 1pt @ 12/1
Any amount of these can have claims made for them but Royal Rhyme should be a contender if he’s back to his best after a break. He had a very busy start to the season, running four times in six weeks in April and May, and I wonder whether he was in need of a rest by the time he lined up in the London Gold Cup at Newbury.
It wasn’t a terrible performance in a race where they didn’t go much of a gallop, but he was travelling strongly inside the last few furlongs and promised much more than the resulting finishing effort. The ground may not have been to his liking either and I’m inclined to forgive and forget.
Previous to that, he bolted up off a mark of 85 at Newmarket and although it was only a small field, the clock fully backed up the visual impression. That was on soft ground as well and he seemed to relish it, adding hope that the recent rain at Goodwood is going to be more favourable for him than most.
His novice win was also on soft and the surface could be the key to getting him to max out. We do have to hope that his fitness is where it needs to be after almost 11 weeks away but Karl Burke will have had an eye on this from a long way out and I’m sure he’ll be ready to rock. I wouldn’t back him at single-figures but anything around 12/1 or bigger makes plenty of appeal.
16:45 Goodwood – John Chard VC – 1pt e/w @ 33/1
John Chard VC hasn’t fired in two outings as a three-year-old and that’s disappointing given his juvenile promise. It could be that he hasn’t trained on but his first run of the season, which came over this C&D, was on top of fast ground and it was his first experience of it. Given that he was a non-runner on similar ground twice since, I’m blaming the surface.
It was good according to Timeform for his next outing at York (good-to-soft officially; I trust the times) and he moved well through that, but was racing over an extended 1m 2f having never gone beyond a mile before and patently didn’t get home. So if we blame the ground for his first run and the trip for his second, it’s not hard to imagine a better effort this time around with both issues corrected.
As a juvenile, he broke his maiden third time up at Leicester (7f) and defeated Kolsai in the process. That one has since placed at Listed and Group 3 level, earning a rating of 108. He didn't get a clear run when finishing third to an 86-rated Grey’s Monument (now 103) next time and on the balance of his form I just can’t see how he won’t win races off 81.
Physically, he should be coming into his own and the hope is that we’ll see the real version of him on this surface. It could end up being too extreme for him, I don’t know, but he’s a huge price when all things are considered. With five places up for grabs, I’ll take a punt that he can hit one of them.
17:55 Goodwood – Lakota Blue – 2pts @ 16/1
Lakota Blue looks very underrated here. Fair enough, he needs to find some improvement to be winning it off a mark of 86 and being drawn low mightn’t be optimal, but I’ve watched a lot of his races and ended up thinking he could be a nice speed track 5f handicapper. Yet he never even tackled the trip until last time and that was in a Listed contest at Sandown.
The ground was fast enough for him there and I’m not sure a stiff uphill finish played to his strengths, particularly on that surface, so all in all it was an acceptable run given the grade. He’s going to be more comfortable in handicap company again and had shaped very nicely at Leicester (6f) behind The Big Board, who went on to win a couple of minimum trip handicaps.
Again, the ground was quick and he posted a big timefigure despite that, so it’s another piece of form that leaves me thinking he’s going to prove superior than his mark once even more elements are in his favour.
His win at Ripon in April, which he again went through like a 5f horse, came on heavy ground and rated well on the clock. Another Baar, who opposes here and is 12/1, was a length behind in third and there’s actually a 13lb swing at the weights in favour of the selection. At the current quotes, there’s no shortage of juice in the price of Lakota Blue and I expect a good run.
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