How Have College Football Teams Done Before Moving Conferences?

A host of college football teams are slated to embark on a change of scenery in 2024, thanks to the latest round of conference realignment.  

Between the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners’ departure from the Big 12 for the SEC and the defection of eight Pac-12 members to the Big 12 and Big Ten, there’s no shortage of storylines to keep an eye on this fall.  

With 10 teams slated to join new conferences in 2024, USBettingReport.com took a look back at the 2010-2013 round of realignment to see how teams performed in their final season before switching conferences. We utilized Sports-Reference.com for all records/data, giving you something to think about before starting your wagers at legal online sportsbooks this fall.

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College Football Teams Before a Conference Move

College football betting siteslist Georgia as the favorite to win this year’s national championship at +225 odds. Alabama is second on the list at +600. USC is the top “lame duck” program on the list. The Trojans, which will be moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten next year, are sixth in championship odds at +1400.

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‘Lame Duck’ Teams Often Thrive

The teams USBettingReport.com surveyed went 110-59 (.651) during their final year in their respective conferences.

That overall winning percentage was buoyed by the performance of teams like Louisville (12-1 in their last American Athletic Conference season in 2013), the 2012 Cardinals (11-2 in their last year in the Big East), the 2011 TCU Horned Frogs (11-2 in their last year in the Mountain West) and Utah and Nebraska in 2010 (which went 10-3 and 10-4, respectively).  

Of the 13 teams on the list, 10 finished the final year with records above .500 and five won 10 or more games.

The outliers were the 2010 Colorado Buffaloes (who went 5-7 in their final Big 12 season), the 2012 Pitt Panthers (who went 6-7 in their final Big East season in 2012) and the 2013 Rutgers Scarlet Knights squad that went 6-7 in their final AAC season.  

In total, five of the 13 teams surveyed either won a share of their conference or played in a conference title game during their final seasons.

That history could repeat itself this year. Caesars Sportsbooklists Texas as the favorite to win the Big 12 (+100) in its last year before heading to the SEC, and USC (+170) as the Pac 12 favorite.

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