How our 2022 F1 predictions stood up

Max Verstappen is on the verge of winning the 2022 Formula 1 title.

How do The Race's 2022 predictions stand up? The writers look back at the predictions they made on the eve of the Bahrain season opener in March.

Mark Hughes predicted that Verstappen would win the drivers' title and Mercedes the constructors' in 2022. Glenn Freeman, Josh Suttill and Matt Beer also made wrong predictions. Valentin Khorounzhiy got both predictions right. i.e. the Charles Leclerc/Ferrari axis that started the season as the package to beat but faded as they went on.

Mercedes finished third in the standings this year. Most people expected Mercedes to win the title. Suttill, Khorounzhiy and Hughes were wrong.   They were all surprised by Mercedes' poor season. They all had their expectations of Mercedes being wrong, however. The writers are looking forward to the 2022 season and their predictions. It is possible Mercedes will win it all. For now, they are satisfied with their current position. for the rest of the season, the writers will discuss their previous predictions and the future of Formula 1.

Russell won six or seven races in his first season as a team-mate at Mercedes. He outscored Lewis Hamilton. He was predicted to win five or six races by Freeman and Suttill. Beer was sceptical about his performance. It was the most pessimistic prediction. Russell won in Brazil. The other drivers were more optimistic. They were predicting more wins.

The new rules era has not improved the competitive playing field. The top-three teams dominated the top six positions in 2022. Four of the seven contributors predicted more than three teams winning races. Hughes predicted five teams might succeed. Horhounzhiy predicted one outsider would join the winners’ circle. Freeman predicted only the big three would win. The improved overtaking has made shock wins even more difficult.

Alonso finished 14 points ahead of Vettel in 2022. Valtteri retired from Formula One. Alonso is trading Alpine for Aston Martin. He finished fifth, sixth, and ninth in the points. He also finished in Australia and Canada. Six of the seven writers predicted Alonso would have the better year. Freeman was the one outlier. Suttill considered the subjectivity of his predictions. The writer who picked Alonso before the season considered it. It was a controversial question. They all agree Alonso had a better season.

There was limited success in our predictions about the most surprising intra-team duel victor. Esteban Ocon beat Alonso but had two race retirements to his team-mate's six. Russell's margin over Hamilton came earlier in the season. Freeman didn't go for Russell beating Hamilton. Suttill and Hughes both thought 2022 would be the year when Yuki Tsunoda would beat Pierre Gasly at AlphaTauri. Beer said he was wrong about Mick Schumacher beating Kevin Magnussen at Haas.

Williams will finish last in the 2022 Formula One season. Alfa Romeo finished sixth in their first season after a poor pre-season. The writers were surprised by the results of their predictions. They were swayed by their performance at Barcelona and Bahrain. The team finished 27 points adrift at the foot of the table with just five top-10 finishes. It lost Jost Capito and Francois-Xaiver Demaison.