F1 Italian Grand Prix odds, podium predictions: Max Verstappen goes for consecutive wins record

The records are coming quickly for Max Verstappen and Red Bull this season. Not only has Red Bull won every race this season, which already set a record for most consecutive wins by a constructor, but Verstappen has matched a Formula One record with nine straight wins. If he wins this weekend at the Italian Grand Prix he will stand alone with that record.

Sebastian Vettel won nine straight races in 2013, also with Red Bull. For those getting tired of Red Bull wins, Vettel’s Red Bull dominated in 2013, but Mercedes took over the top spot the following year.

To say Verstappen is expected to win this weekend is an understatement. The Dutch driver is -450 (2-to-9) on BetMGM to win in Monza this weekend. His odds to win continue to get shorter and shorter during this streak. Taking the rest of the field is getting somewhat long odds at this point.

The track in Monza has seen pole winners dominate in recent decades but not the past few years. From 1998 to 2019, 16 of the 22 winners came from pole position, but each of the last three pole sitters failed to win and none of those races were in wet conditions. Including Verstappen winning there last year, there have been five different winners in the last five years (Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, Pierre Gasly, Daniel Ricciardo, Verstappen).

After rain created some excitement last weekend in the Netherlands, the forecast doesn’t show a high chance of rain at all this weekend.

Will Verstappen break the record? The Athletic’s F1 crew previewed the race and made podium predictions.

How does Max Verstappen’s win streak compare to other F1 feats in your memory?

Madeline Coleman: For the American football fans out there, Verstappen reminds me of Alabama, which holds one of the longest home-winning streaks. The Crimson Tide seemed to rule the SEC for years, and it wasn’t until recently that the LSU Tigers and the Georgia Bulldogs challenged that, winning the last three of the last four national championships. (Yes, the Clemson Tigers gave Alabama a run for its money before that in the title games as they alternated wins for four years, but I’m focusing on the SEC here for the comparison). All of that to say, it may be a bit until Verstappen is challenged. Some may call this a cheap comparison, but Sebastian Vettel’s 2013 run comes to mind since that is the record Verstappen equaled last weekend. The winning margin, though, is what stands out to me (and what made Alabama come to mind) because it’s not a couple tenths but rather half-a-minute at times.

Patrick Iversen: Besides Lewis Hamilton, the other recent motorsports run that comes to mind is Jimmie Johnson. As a kid, I was a huge Jeff Gordon fan, so I spent most of my teenage years embittered by the sheer dominance of his younger Hendrick Motorsports teammate. Like Hamilton, Johnson is a seven-time champion – five of those coming in consecutive seasons. Is it really that hard to imagine Verstappen pulling off the same feat? Midway through his run, Johnson’s blue No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet signified unstoppable greatness. Verstappen’s dark blue No. 1 Red Bull may already be there.

Luke Smith: So back when I was a young pup of a journalist, the first F1 season I properly covered was 2013, meaning I was reporting on Vettel’s record run of nine victories on the bounce at the time. But Verstappen’s feels different. When Vettel was winning, there were some races he’d deliver an epic display and finish 20 seconds up the road, only for other winning margins to be much finer. He didn’t have the kind of buffer that Verstappen has. And while Hamilton was dominant, he was pushed all the way by Nico Rosberg and then faced closer competition from Valtteri Bottas. Verstappen’s current feat really stands head and shoulders clear.

Ferrari is ahead of Aston Martin in the odds to finish second in the constructors championship despite trailing by 14 points (Mercedes is the clear favorite). Do you think Ferrari passes Aston Martin by the end of the season?

Coleman: Absolutely, even with the confusing form Ferrari currently has. The car is inconsistent, but the Prancing Horse has two drivers who can extract as much performance from the SF-23 and score points nearly every weekend. Ferrari needs to minimize the mistakes it can control. Looking over at Aston Martin, things seem not to be clicking as well for Lance Stroll as it is for Fernando Alonso, and both drivers need to be scoring points.

Iversen: Sigh. Deep sigh. [ten-minute pause] I … I don’t know. I don’t trust Ferrari’s car. It regressed in Zandvoort, and it doesn’t seem like the team understands it even this deep into the season. Alonso looked capable of winning in Zandvoort and happier than he’d been after a race in months. I don’t sense the same optimism around Ferrari. That said, Ferrari has two drivers capable of winning races and podiums – I’m not sure the same can be said about Aston Martin.

Smith: I think so. Aston Martin was a step ahead of Ferrari at Zandvoort, and Ferrari’s perplexing, peaky level of performance is likely to continue through the remainder of the year. But so long as Ferrari has two drivers scoring points to Aston Martin’s one – Stroll hasn’t even got a third of Alonso’s points – then I see the Scuderia winning the fight for P3.

Which driver scores the most points the rest of the season between Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Fernando Alonso?

Coleman: Hamilton. Out of the trio, Mercedes’ form is stronger and more consistent. The seven-time world champion said to Sky Sports at Zandvoort, “I think we would’ve been challenging Max [Verstappen] if I’m really honest. Particularly when we got to the dry, pace wise, we weren’t terribly far off. But, not saying we would beat them, but I think we would’ve been… it’s all nice if you think that way.”

Iversen: Hamilton. I mean, I don’t trust any of these teams on any given week. They’ve all been so inconsistent. But Mercedes is the most consistent on pure race pace, and I trust Hamilton to get the most out of the car. The Mercedes can climb through the field most weeks, no matter how disappointing their Fridays and Saturdays can be.

Smith: I’m going to make it a hat-trick of Hamiltons. Alonso has been performing at a really high level, but I don’t think Aston Martin has the same kind of consistency that Mercedes has. Zandvoort felt like more of an outlier result than a sign of Alonso getting back in front. Ferrari’s high highs will be offset by low lows, meaning Leclerc scores the fewest points of the three.

How about their teammates: Which driver scores the most points the rest of the season between George Russell, Carlos Sainz and Lance Stroll?

Coleman: I admittedly wrestled more with this one because Sainz and Russell have a similar record this season. However, given the SF-23’s form right now and how I answered the previous question, I’d have to say Russell.

Iversen: I’ll give you an anecdote for an answer. Russell started the Dutch GP in third but fell to the back thanks to Mercedes rain strategy indecisiveness. He and the team drove and strategized him back into P8 before he punctured his tire and wound up P17. That team, that car and Russell all have a little more oomph right now than the other two.

Smith: Again, I have to go with the Mercedes driver, Russell, for the same reasons as above. He’s been unlucky at times this year, and admitted to not feeling entirely comfortable with the W14 car. With some steps forward, I think he’ll be in a good spot to finish the year strongly.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium at Monza?

Coleman: Verstappen, Hamilton, Alex Albon

Iversen: Verstappen, Leclerc, Russell

Smith: Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Leclerc