How to Bet NFL Backup QBs: Trubisky vs. Zappe Not a Lock For The Under

sportsbookreview.com

07 December 2023

How to Bet NFL Backup QBs: Trubisky vs. Zappe Not a Lock For The Under

Ahead of Patriots vs. Steelers on Thursday Night Football, we take a look at the odds and betting trends for backup quarterbacks against the spread and total based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The 2023 NFL season has been defined by an ever-expanding list of injured quarterbacks and a revolving door of rookies and retreads ready to take their place. Week 14 is shaping up to be an all-timer.

Through the first 13 weeks, we've already seen five Week 1 starters land on injured reserve with a season-ending injury, while 62 of the total 193 games played (32.1%) have featured at least one backup quarterback. (Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who opened the year on IR, is considered a starter for these purposes.)

This week, as many as 12 teams are expected to trot out a backup QB after three more starters went down with injuries in Week 13. As a result, we could see up to four games in Week 14 featuring backups on both sides, the most in any week this season.

One of those is likely coming on Thursday Night Football, as we outlined with our Mitch Trubisky player props and Bailey Zappe player props, in a game with a betting total of 30 across our best sportsbooks - the lowest in any game since 2005.

As tempting as it might be to blindly bet the Under whenever backups are involved, that hasn't been a surefire strategy in 2023. And in some cases, starters are the ones to fade.

2023 NFL backup QB odds, betting trends

As we mentioned earlier, nearly a third of all games this season have featured a backup quarterback for either side. Fourteen teams have relied on a reserve QB this season, while 10 rookies have made at least one start - the most in a single season in NFL history.

That rash of injuries and relative inexperience has had a profound effect on leaguewide scoring, which is down to its lowest per-team total (21.7 PPG) since the 2009 season. The average passer rating (88.8) is also at its worst point since 2017, while the league's passing TD rate (4.0%) hasn't been this low since 2008.

So, with all that said, is it profitable to bet the Under whenever a backup quarterback is involved?

Not exactly. Here's a look at the betting data for the 2023 season via Covers, broken down by games featuring zero, one, or two backup quarterbacks:

Just as you might expect, teams are scoring roughly five points per game more with their regular starters than they are without them - a clear indication that those myriad injuries are contributing to the leaguewide scoring drought.

That said, the Under has been more profitable in games featuring two starters (58.8%) than ones pitting a starter against a backup (55.4%), which has barely cleared the ideal target of 55% through the first 13 weeks of the season.

Ironically, when two backups face off, the Over has been the better bet (60%). The biggest reason? Low totals. Games with dueling reserves have seen an average betting total of 37.9, but they've produced a combined 42.2 points per contest, an even better mark than games featuring just one backup passer (39.9).

That's the most obvious reason why blindly betting the Under on games with second-string passers isn't even as profitable as doing so when starters are involved: sportsbooks are keeping tabs on this stuff, too.

Of the 14 teams to start a backup QB in 2023, nine have been profitable to the Under across the entire season. Yet seven of those nine teams have been profitable to the Under when their starter takes the field, as sportsbooks routinely hang lower totals for reserve QBs, often aggressively so.

There's another explanation for that seemingly curious trend: sometimes the starter just isn't that good.

Of those 14 aforementioned teams, eight have scored more points per game with their backups at the helm. Remember, not every QB change is injury-related: the Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans all willingly benched their Week 1 starter at some point this season, and they were all rewarded with a higher PPG behind their new signal-caller.

How to bet backup QBs in NFL Week 14

All of this brings us back to Thursday's contest, which features the lowest betting total we've seen in nearly two decades.

Historically, low totals have been a good thing for Under bettors. As our Mike Spector noted in his Patriots vs. Steelers predictions, the Under is 23-5-1 since 2020 in games with a betting total of 37 or lower, and Thursday's total is a direct reflection of the shoddy QB play from both sides.

Still, as the numbers have shown, not every game with backup passers is an automatic Under.

Look no further than last week's prime-time finale, which we outlined with our Monday Night Football odds. The Cincinnati Bengals (Jake Browning) and Jacksonville Jaguars (C.J. Beathard) relied on backup QBs to close out a game with the second-lowest betting total (41) for either team all season. By the end of regulation, they had cleared that total by a whopping 21 points, and the 34-31 final was one of the 15 highest-scoring games of the entire 2023 season.

With that said, here's a look at the four possible Week 14 matchups featuring two backup QBs, with odds from DraftKings as of Thursday morning:

Some of those games could very well set new marks in offensive futility, but those low totals could also spell value for contrarian Over bettors, especially given what we've seen through the first three months of this wild NFL campaign.

In a season when former third-string QB Brock Purdy is favorite by our NFL MVP odds and journeyman Joshua Dobbs is the feel-good story of the year, backups are having their moment. So, before you rush to the window to bet against a dozen fill-in starters, just remember: not every backup is worth fading, and not every total is worth betting into.