NFL Wild Card Weekend Trends, Predictions: How to Bet QBs Making 1st Playoff Start

Four quarterbacks are set to make their first career NFL playoff start over Wild Card Weekend, and we're taking a look at the trends and history of debut QBs in the postseason based on the best NFL odds and results from first-time playoff starters across the last two decades.

Above all else, the 2023-24 NFL season has been defined by fresh faces at quarterback. A whopping 66 different players started under center this season, second-most in a non-strike campaign in league history, and a record 10 rookie passers started at least one game.

This weekend, four of those myriad starters - C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins), Mason Rudolph (Pittsburgh Steelers), and Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers) - are expected to make their first career playoff start over NFL Wild Card Weekend, marking the ninth consecutive year with at least three first-time starters in the wild-card round.

Historically, the playoffs have been a hostile proving ground for newcomers - especially for underdogs, which will be the case for all four quarterbacks this weekend. And recent results suggest this year's quartet is primed for an early exit.

Before you bet on (or against) this crop of first-time playoff starters ahead of NFL Wild Card Weekend, let's take a look at the trends and history for QBs in their playoff debut via our best NFL betting sites.

Curse of the NFL playoff debut

On Jan. 19, 2002, Tom Brady braced the wintry conditions of New England to win his playoff debut in the infamous "Tuck Rule" game against the Oakland Raiders. Two weeks later, he engineered one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl betting history to lead the Patriots to their first-ever championship.

We haven't seen anything like that in two decades since, as Brady remains the last quarterback to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in his first postseason as a starter. Since then, 77 QBs have tried (and failed) to emulate that epic run - and nearly two-thirds have flamed out in their first career start.

Since the NFL changed its postseason format ahead of the 2002 season, quarterbacks making their first playoff start are just 27-50 straight up with nearly as many double-digit losses (25) as outright wins. They've posted a 30-46-1 record against the spread (39.5%), which drops to 22-38-1 ATS (36.7%) if you exclude first-time starters facing off against each other, like we saw twice in last year's wild-card round.

Speaking of which, playoff newcomers have lost five of six games against experienced starters over the last two postseasons. And while those six QBs went 3-3 ATS - with one win coming by half a point - they lost by a combined 72 points overall and 33 points against the number, and four of them led their team to 17 or fewer points.

All six of those quarterbacks were road underdogs, as are three of the four QBs making their playoff debuts this weekend. That hasn't been a favorable spot for first-time starters over the last two decades.

Just seven of 30 quarterbacks making their first playoff start as a road underdog have escaped with the outright win since the 2002-03 season, with 12 of those 30 starters (40%) covering against the spread. It's even worse for those catching a touchdown or more, as Love and Rudolph are this weekend - those passers went a brutal 1-12 straight up with a 5-8 ATS record (38.5%), losing by an average of 12 points per game.

Stroud is the lone home underdog of the group this week, but he's also the only rookie signal-caller in this year's postseason. The previous 17 rookies went a respectable 7-10 SU and 7-9-1 ATS, but nearly half of them were favorites. Rookie underdogs, on the other hand, are a woeful 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS with a minus-80 scoring differential since '02.

Stroud (22), Tagovailoa (25), and Love (25) will join the list of nearly 50 quarterbacks to make their playoff debut at 25 or younger since the 2002 season. Excluding matchups against another first-time postseason starter, those passers went 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) with more double-digit losses (13) than outright wins (11) in 38 tries.

Rudolph (28) is the elder statesman of this year's group, even with just 13 regular-season starts to his name. Don't expect wisdom to translate into wins: QBs making their playoff debut at 28 or older are 6-9 SU/ATS, and underdogs are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS with five losses by 18 or more points.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Beware of new QBs in player props market

Clearly, teams haven't fared well in the postseason with a first-time starter at the helm. But how have those passers performed on an individual basis in their postseason debut?

In a word: terribly. Here's a look at some basic box-score metrics for the 77 QBs making their first career playoff start since the 2002-03 season:

Obviously, it's important to view these numbers in the proper context, as the NFL has evolved into a pass-first league over the last two decades. That said, even adjusting for era doesn't fully account for the miserable output we've seen from quarterbacks in their first taste of postseason action.

Of those 77 passers, 34 of them threw for fewer than 200 yards in their playoff debut. That isn't just a case of old-school football: over half of those came since 2010, with some wretched performances of late from Kyler Murray (137 yards), Jimmy Garoppolo (131), Ryan Tannehill (72), and Lamar Jackson (194) in the last five years alone.

Forty-nine of those 77 passers completed fewer than 60% of their attempts in their postseason debut, and 50 of them had a passer rating below 88.9, which was the league average in 2023. If you really want to strip the advantage of the modern era? Forty-four of those QBs had a passer rating below 80.4 - the average way back in 2002.

As you might expect, QBs have been quite turnover-prone in their first career playoff start, with 48 of those 77 passers throwing at least one interception. In the last two postseasons alone, we've seen 12 first-time playoff starters combine to throw 15 interceptions, with eight throwing at least one pick and five QBs tossing multiple INTs.

Once again, road underdogs have been especially dreadful over the last two decades, averaging 209 passing yards with a 57.1% completion rate and a combined 31 TDs to 35 INTs in 30 starts. Incredibly, more QBs threw multiple picks (10) than zero picks (seven) in that spot, and more finished with zero TDs (10) than multiple TDs (nine).

Again, you can't blame those numbers on the aughts, either. Over the last decade, QBs making their first playoff start as a road 'dog averaged just 202.1 yards per game with as many TDs (20) as INTs (20), and only two had a passer rating above 100.

Vermont sports betting with our best Vermont sportsbook promos, and be sure to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Should you fade QBs making their 1st NFL playoff start?

As compelling as these trends are, that's exactly what they are: trends. Every situation is different in the NFL, and every quarterback has a chance to write their own narrative.

While Stroud is just one year removed from college, he's also the youngest player to ever lead the league in TD-INT ratio (23:5) and was dealing among the NFL MVP favorites late in the season. So was Tagovailoa, who was once the frontrunner for the award and remained among the favorites entering Week 17 before fading down the stretch.

Love has never started a playoff game, but the Packers made the postseason in each of his first two seasons as a backup. It's a similar story for Rudolph, whose Steelers crashed the wild-card round for the first time since Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season.

Nevertheless, oddsmakers across our best sports betting sites don't have much confidence in any of those four passers this weekend, offering them all as underdogs in their first postseason start:

At least one quarterback has won their playoff debut in each of the last seven seasons with 13 such wins overall in that span. Five of those have come at the expense of another first-time starter, though, which won't be the case this postseason.

Instead, these four passers will attempt to add another "first" to a season full of them, facing off against a mix of previous Super Bowl winners and perennial MVP candidates.

And if they can dispel the historic trends working against them this weekend? Maybe they'll have a Brady-esque run in them, too.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.