Iowa State vs. Houston prediction: College basketball odds, picks

Monday’s matchup between Iowa State and Houston could go a long way in determining the Big 12 regular-season champion.

Although both teams sit atop the conference standings with identical 9-3 records, Iowa State does have a head-to-head victory in the first meeting.

In early January, an unranked Cyclones team handed the Cougars their first loss of the season with a 57-53 setback on the road.

Iowa State is now ranked sixth in the country, while Houston is second after several top-10 teams took tough losses over the last week. 

Heading into the first meeting, the knock on Iowa State was that it played a soft schedule, ranking 284th at the time. However, given their performance in the Big 12, the Cyclones are now playing with confidence and their top-10 ranking proves that this team belongs on the big stage. 

As a result, I think we’ll get a much more fluid game than in the previous meeting when both teams struggled offensively.

It’s easy for a team to feel overwhelmed when facing the Kelvin Sampson-led Cougars.

Iowa State shot 38.3% (18-for-47) from the floor and just 20% (3-for-15) from beyond the arc in the first meeting. 

That performance was very uncharacteristic of a Cyclones team that TeamRankings lists 31st in field goal percentage at 47.7%. 

I thought Iowa State did a decent job handling Houston’s aggressive defense. Instead of utilizing drop coverage to counter pick-and-rolls, the Cougars blitzed the ball-handler with a second defender, effectively trying to trap him to force a turnover. 

Iowa State does have good ball-handlers led by guards Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert.

The Cyclones only committed 12 turnovers compared to 16 for the Cougars, and they rank 19th with a 1.56 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Iowa State did score 17 points off of turnovers in the first matchup, but only six points came on fastbreak opportunities.

One way to neutralize the Cougars’ defense is to score in transition and not give it time to set up. While Houston ranks first in points allowed per game (55.0), it’s 144th in percentage of total field goals allowed in transition, per Hoop-Math.

Look for the Cyclones to try to inject a bit more pace into this game with their transition offense.

Like the Cyclones, the Cougars also shot poorly in the first meeting, hitting only 19-of-50 (38%) field goals. However, Houston does have some pretty dramatic home-away splits when it comes to shooting from the floor.

For example, despite ranking 16th in KenPoms’ adjusted offensive efficiency metric, Houston ranks 301st in field goal shooting percentage (40.4%) on the road. 

Even Iowa State, which ranks 42nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, shoots 43.7% away from home. As a result, I’d expect Houston to benefit from playing in front of its home crowd. 

The Cyclones can be vulnerable on the perimeter, ranking 257th with 7.9 3-pointers allowed per game. But if we focus solely on their performance on the road, they allow 8.9 3-pointers, which is 314th in the country.

There are some clear weaknesses that both teams can exploit in this game. From a raw offensive efficiency perspective, these are two teams ranked in the top-30 that played well below their standard in the first meeting.

Thus, I think it’s a bit speculative to expect both offenses to struggle a second time.

I suspect the market is showing some recency bias with the total after betting it down from the opening number of 129 to 127.5. However, when I look at the overall profile of these two teams, that move feels unwarranted. 

Both had poor shooting nights, but I won’t let that seep too much into my analysis for this game. 

While I greatly respect the Cougars’ defense, I think Iowa State’s guards can handle the blitz pressure on the road. After all, the Cyclones average 10.9 turnovers on the road vs. 10.4 at home, so there isn’t too much of a dropoff. 

Houston has a 15-10 under mark this season, yet those lower-scoring games have largely been against unranked teams. Meanwhile, against ranked opponents, the over is a perfect 3-0 in Houston’s games. 

Facing a familiar foe should also bode well for more points in this game.

According to KillerSports.com, in games with a total of 128.5 or fewer points where a team shot less than 40% in an earlier meeting this season, the total is 9-5 to the over.

The expectation of this top-10 matchup results in a more eye-catching offensive game, as my model projects a total closer to 132 points.

With PointsBet and BetRivers still hanging the total at 127.5, the over is a worthy consideration.

Pick: Over 130.5 points (-110, FanDuel) | Play to 131.5