Jets vs. Browns Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 17: Thursday Night Football

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25 December 2023

Jets vs. Browns Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 17: Thursday Night Football

The Cleveland Browns look to clinch a playoff spot when they host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football, and we offer our best Jets vs. Browns predictions for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

The New York Jets (6-9) look to win back-to-back games for the first time since late October after nearly blowing a 20-point lead in last week’s 30-28 victory over the Washington Commanders. The Jets’ 12-year playoff drought is tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the longest active among the four major sports.

The Cleveland Browns (10-5) are one game clear of the top Wild Card spot in the AFC playoffs and still have an AFC North division title in sight. The Browns are 8-3 in their last 11 games and are now 3-1 with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback.

Here is our best Jets vs. Browns prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jets vs. Browns prediction: Thursday Night Football

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is among the NFL Coach of the Year favorites, and rightfully so, as he has guided the team to 10 wins with four different starting quarterbacks. And while Joe Flacco has been a franchise savior with a 326.8 passing yards per game average in his four starts, he has also been turnover-prone, with at least one interception (and seven total) in all four.

Flacco faces his former team, the Jets, who rank second in the league in pass defense (168.6 yards per game allowed), which will be an issue considering offensive line injuries have recently compromised the Browns running game. Cleveland has averaged just 55 rushing yards per game over the last three games and ran for fewer than three yards per carry in all three.

New York has scored 30 points twice this season, which came within the last three weeks. However, the latter came against a Commanders defense that has allowed 34.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak, and the Jets should come nowhere close to the 30-point plateau when facing a Browns defense that has held 11 opponents to fewer than 300 total yards (the franchise’s most since 1957).

The last time Browns defensive end Myles Garrett played at home, his nine pass rush wins in Week 15 were the most of any player, and his 21 pass rush wins in Weeks 14-15 were his most in a two-week span in his career.

While the Jets rank second in pass defense, the Browns rank first, thanks in large part because they entered last week with three cornerbacks (Martin Emerson Jr., Denzel Ward, and Greg Newsome II) who all ranked in the top 12 of the league in passer rating allowed when targeted.

This is also a four-star play, as Cleveland’s defense has been historic, with 195 first downs allowed through 14 games, the fewest since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. And with rain in the forecast, we expect this game to be even uglier than usual.

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Jets vs. Browns best odds

Under backers have their choice of four of the best sports betting apps for the best number, as FanDuel’s O/U oddly differs by 1.5 points from the others.

FanDuel’s moneyline odds also vary widely from the others, as it offers -255 odds, while bet365 is on the high end at -320. While that may be enticing for bettors as the Browns look to clinch a playoff berth, home teams are just 31-30 SU on Thursday night since 2020. However, Stefanski’s teams have done well in the favorite role, going 26-10 SU as favorites and 10-20 SU as underdogs.

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Jets vs. Browns odds for Thursday Night Football

The only reported line movement thus far is at FanDuel, which has lowered its total from an opening number of 35.5 to 35. The biggest line movement from the lookahead line occurred at Caesars, where the total jumped from 34.5 on Dec. 20 to 36.5 on Sunday night. Those interested in the first-half Under should know they are 25-23-1 on Thursday Night Football since 2021.

There is a one-point difference in the point spread among the top sportsbooks, as FanDuel is on the low end at Browns -6, while BetMGM and bet365 are both on the key number of -7. Bettors have gotten behind the Browns early at bet365, driving the line up from -6 to -7 within the first hour of its initial posting late Sunday.