Juddmonte Middle Park analysis as Vandeek is too quick for Guineas hopefuls
Sleek Vandeek shows versatility
Vandeek looks very good, doesn’t he?
Simon & Ed Crisford’s unbeaten son of Havana Grey is now four from four after his most taking Juddmonte Middle Park win on Saturday, sprinting away from his rivals to the tune of a two-and-a-quarter-length winning distance. Stylish.
He’s done it on soft ground and very soft ground and quick ground on different tracks from Goodwood to Deauville to Newmarket, already racking up £445,000 in prize money - almost recouping the 625,000 guineas KHK Racing Ltd stumped up for him at the Tatts Craven Breeze-Up sale back in April.
One of the most impressive aspects of his performance in the Middle Park was his ability to handle much faster conditions than he had previously handled, proving himself versatile, and such adaptability brings with it the hope and expectation for even bigger and better things.
Will he train on at three? Will he stay a mile? Is he an out and out sprinter? Things for the Crisfords to mull over during the winter.
Havana Grey progeny certainly look precocious two-year-olds although there isn’t too much evidence to the contrary as yet with Vandeek the headline act from just his second crop. For the record Havana Grey’s first crop, this year’s three-year-olds, are one from 18 in group races in 2023, Mammas Girl’s Group 3 Nell Gwyn win back in April the sole victory there.
We have to acknowledge there is at least a question mark on the ‘training on at three’ poser, then, and his owner will know all about that, what with Sakheer flopping in two starts as a three-year-old this season having looked to have the world at his hooves when he hacked up in the Mill Reef Stakes this time last year.
It’s a new challenge for the Crisfords, too, with Vandeek being their first Group 1 winner. He has two top-level trophies in the cabinet now but how they campaign him from here on in will dictate how many, if any, he adds to his collection.
The Dewhurst could help on that score. Not only will he try seven furlongs for the first time but he could bump into the Ballydoyle behemoth City Of Troy, so testing both his stamina and his class against the season’s other standout two-year-old, as well.
That is a contest to look forward to in the short term, but Vandeek’s long-term future was also the subject of bookmaker quotes in the aftermath of the Middle Park – he’s 10/1 for the 2000 Guineas and as short as 6/1, while he’s clear 5/1 favourite for Royal Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup.
Going back to his pedigree, it doesn’t offer much hope of him staying a mile. Aside from the Havana Grey influence his dam was a moderate sprinter and his half-siblings are all five-furlong specialists too.
He has got speed, bags of it, and he showed it in the Middle Park, overcoming failing to settle early doors by using his pace to see off a couple of talented rivals in Task Force and River Tiber who are bred for further next year.
Task Force looks the Guineas horse
Indeed, the runner-up, Task Force, arguably looks the most interesting 2000 Guineas prospect from the Middle Park and he’s 25/1 (bet365) and 16s and 20s elsewhere to prevail in the Newmarket Classic next May.
By Frankel, the most famous 2000 Guineas winner of them all, out of Special Duty, awarded the 1000 Guineas in a stewards’ inquiry, it’s fair to say Task Force might have it in his blood and this was a highly encouraging step up in form terms on just his third start.
He too was keen early on, racing side by side with Vandeek, but Rossa Ryan soon got him into a better rhythm at the rear of the pack. He doesn’t have the zip of Vandeek, but he got rolling out of the dip and finished well to edge the silver medal, looking every inch a highly-promising miler for next year.
Trainer Ralph Beckett has only ever had two 2000 Guineas runners in the past, Kinross and Devilwala, the latter a 100/1 chance who came 12th, while it came too soon in the former’s development as he finished sixth before progressing into a Group 1-winning machine over six and seven furlongs.
In Task Force he’s got his best chance of Guineas glory yet, while Aidan O’Brien’s River Tiber, just a head behind in third, looks far from the Ballydoyle master’s best Guineas chance for all that he looks a perfectly solid horse.
Vandeek looks very good, Task Force looks very promising, but the best could be yet to come in the division in the Dewhurst. City Of Troy, we are watching this space.
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