Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

The Kansas City Royals (18-44) and Baltimore Orioles (38-24) begin a 3-game series in Charm City on Friday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 2-1

The Royals continue their 6-game road trip in Baltimore on Friday after being swept in Miami by the Marlins. Kansas City has lost 14 of its last 20 games and have managed to score only 3.1 runs per game over that stretch.

Baltimore avoided being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday with a 6-3 victory as Gunnar Henderson hit a 2-run HR in the 8th inning. The Orioles went 3-3 on their road trip and return home, where they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

LHP Daniel Lynch vs. RHP Tyler Wells

Lynch (0-1, 4.35 ERA) will make his 3rd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 10 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-4 home loss vs Colorado Rockies Friday
• Last start vs Orioles: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-4 home loss on June 11, 2022
• Has not earned a victory since last Aug. 1

Wells (4-2, 3.29 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 68 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in a 8-3 road win at the San Francisco Giants Sunday
• Last start vs Royals: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 11-7 road victory on May 2, 2023

Royals at Orioles odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 p.m. ET.

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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Royals 3

PASS.

I like the Orioles to win, but the odds are not favorable. You have to put up nearly 2 units to win back 1. While Baltimore is the far superior team, they have not played well at home recently, so avoid the moneyline.

BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+115)

No better way to get your team back on track than coming home to face the 2nd-worst team in the majors. When the Royals lose, it’s by 2 runs or more. Their average run differential over their last 10 losses has been 3.

Lynch has allowed at least 3 ER runs in 9 of his last 13 starts. The Orioles have a .259 batting average with a .770 OPS against left handed pitchers this season.

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I like the OVER 8 (-115) because both of these pitchers are prone to giving up runs. Wells and Lynch gave up 4 runs in their last starts against these respective teams. The Royals may not score many runs, but they allow their opponents to produce a lot. Kansas City’s opponents have scored 21 runs over their last 3 games.

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