BYU vs. Baylor prediction: College basketball odds, picks, best bets

We’ve got a pretty massive basketball matchup in the Big 12 on Tuesday night. 

The BYU Cougars have been among the most impressive early-season teams, but they now play their first true road game in their new league – the Cougs joined the Big 12 from the West Coast Conference in the offseason. 

Even worse, BYU is playing its first true road game outside Utah state lines. The Cougs’ only road game this year came against Utah in Salt Lake City, where they lost by four as short favorites.

Conversely, Baylor is playing its first conference home game in the brand-new Foster Pavilion. 

I think BYU is a tad overrated and should struggle to step into a hostile environment for the first time this year. 

(9 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

These two are among the nation’s best spacing and shot-making offenses, although they do it in different ways. 

BYU is a pure five-out zoom-action offense that relies almost exclusively on off-ball screen actions to pop open shooters. 

Conversely, Baylor is a guard-heavy, ball-screen-heavy offense that consistently generates at-the-rim and charity-stripe opportunities to augment its 3-point prowess.

RayJ Dennis and Ja’Kobe Walter are among the nation’s most explosive backcourts. 

That’s the main difference between these squads. Baylor generates interior offense when the 3-point shots aren’t falling and BYU doesn’t. 

For example, take BYU’s game against Cincinnati on Saturday.

The Cougars generated only 18 2-point field goal attempts and 10 free throws, while shooing 13-for-46 from 3. The deep shots weren’t falling, and the Cougars had no backup plan. 

The Cougars ranked 360th nationally in free-throw rate (20%) and 353rd in at-the-rim frequency (30%). If shots don’t fall, Mark Pope’s offense stalls.

I’m unsure if BYU will get those all-important quality jump-shooting opportunities.

Baylor ranks 40th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (32%), and the Bears rank 12th nationally in catch-and-shoot jumpers allowed per game (13.6). 

Surprisingly, the Bears’ main issue has been defending the dribble – Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua’s injury hasn’t helped in that regard. But that shouldn’t be a problem against a BYU team that doesn’t create offense off the dribble or at the rim. 

And, hopefully, Yves Missi’s development as an interior defender changes Baylor’s defensive outlook. He’s an incredibly versatile defender, and he actually could hold up on the perimeter against BYU’s five-out zoom actions. 

Ultimately, unless BYU shoots the lights out against solid close-out defense, I don’t love the Cougars’ chances of creating consistent offense for 40 minutes in Waco. 

Can the Cougars stop Baylor’s offense? The answer is yes, on paper, as the Cougars’ pick-and-roll defensive metrics are elite.

However, I worry about their ability to stop the volcanic Baylor ball-screen offense without Fousseyni Traore, the team’s best and most versatile defender. He’s been out of the lineup since late November, and while he played in the Big 12 opener against Cincinnati, it was only nine minutes.

He must be 100% ready and available because stopping the Bears is tough. 

I don’t love the schematic matchup for Baylor, but BYU could struggle to score against Baylor. And I could see the Cougars struggling under the bright, hostile Waco lights in one of their first true road games.

Also, the Baylor faithful should show up in droves to check out the Bears’ brand-new basketball arena.

I’m betting the schematic matchup and situational spot prove too mighty for BYU to overcome, and I’m betting that Baylor runs ‘em off the court Tuesday night. 

Baylor -4.5 (-110, Caesars) | Play to -5