Kentucky Derby 2024 Futures Pool: Early Odds, Analysis

Kentucky Derby Odds Updated 1/10/24

It’s hard to believe but the Kentucky Derby season is underway. Although the major preps won’t start until spring of 2024, players can already start wagering on the event.

In this comprehensive guide, we delve into the odds and prospects of some intriguing contenders, each with the potential to make a splash on the iconic Churchill Downs track.

Online Racebooks

Many race fans will flock to their local betting parlors during the futures pools to place a bet on their “Derby Horse”

Unfortunately those players may miss out on some of the great advantages that come from utilizing off-shore racebooks.

Lock In Your Price

One of the most notable advantages of wagering with one of our partner racebooks is the ability to lock in a price. Players within the American market will be forced to place a bet without knowing what their final price will be.

Much like in the parimutuel racing markets that dictate price every day at the track, the traditional future pools will close at the end of the weekend. Players will receive the odds at the close of the pool as opposed to the odds they placed the bet at.

Fierceness: Fixed Odds

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion, Fierceness, finished as the favorite in Derby pool #2. Ahead of the 2nd pool opening up he was installed at a morning line of 15-1. He finished at 8-1 with a $2 will pay of under $20.

Inversely bettors can head over to online racebooks and get +1000 on him at a fixed price. Although not much of a difference you can squeeze an extra $2.26 out of the potential payout for every $2 wager you place. Best of all, the price you bet is the price you get instead of having to sweat out a weekend of parimutuel roller coasters during the traditional future pools.

Take Your Pick

Those playing stateside at their local track will have the option which seems to be more and more common each year. The catch all “All other 3 year old colts” option which finished at 6-5 in Derby pool #2.

It is still very early in the Kentucky Derby prep season. The horses that are good now may turn out to be nothing. Others will jump off the trail due to injury or illness. While the catch all option is the most likely outcome, it hardly seems worth the risk.

Players who use a website like Bovada can actually submit a name not on the list. This allows them to get a specific horse not featured on the current list and get significantly better odds.

The 2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders

The horses and odds are currently being offered on Bovada. It is recommend that players shop around each of the racebooks to find the best price on their fancied horse. Horses analyzed in this article are at odds of +5000 or less.

California

Nysos (+1400)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Sire: Nyquist
• Record: 2-2-0-0
• Outlook: Baffert’s barn is always loaded ahead of Derby season. However, his 2 year old stable seems to be a battle royal of attrition during the spring. In recent years his monsters have debuted a bit later. Check for Nysos. However, I’ve been burned by these types before. At a shorter price this one feels like a wait and see until we get closer.

Heartland (+3000)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Record: 1-1-0-0
• Outlook: The maiden special weight victory at Del Mar was impressive. This one seemed to be well on his way to the twin spires, but after a late July debut, this one disappeared from training. Not a promising sign, but the trainer is still the trainer and the sire is a Triple Crown winner. Pass until this one returns healthy.

Muth (+3000)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Sire: Good Magic
• Record: 5-3-2-0
• Outlook: This runner has been consistent running similar speed figures in all 5 efforts. Early on it seems like this one can be counted on for a reliable effort. Add an easy win in the grade 2 San Vicente to the record. This one made easy work of a field that contained other Derby hopefuls. However, the question about this run has more to do with intent than anything. Typically, horses will stretch out as they work toward the Derby, but this one cutback to 7 furlongs. Could this potentially signal a change of plans or is this just an attempt to draw out the best in this runner?

Prince Of Monaco (+4000)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Sire: Speightstown
• Record: 4-3-0-0
• Outlook: The sire has a history of throwing runners that can do a lot of things. The horse started out an impressive 3 for 3 including 2 graded stakes. Things got a bit tougher in the Juvenile and he was off the board for the first time in his career. The good thing for this runner is he has a bit of Medina Spirit to him. He is the less heralded Baffert and if he makes the gate could be one that takes them gate to wire in May.

Coach Prime (+5000)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Sire: Quality Road
• Record: 3-1-0-2
• Outlook: This one seems like a hard fade. Much like the Buffaloes coach this one seems to be popular on name recognition, but the recent results leave a lot to be desired. A disappointing third in the Los Alamitos Futurity hardly signals Derby threat.

Kentucky

Nash (+4000)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
• Record: 3-1-2-0
• Outlook: This runner was trending in the right direction until coming up short in the Gun Runner against Track Phantom. The big concern here was a step backward in terms of speed figure. There is room to grow, and the horse is just now 3 years old, but another step back could mean the end of Derby dreams from this runner.

Locked (+2500)

• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Sire: Gun Runner
• Record: 4-2-0-1
• Outlook: Gun Runners are supposed to get better as they get older. This one showed a fair amount of talent knocking out a maiden special weight and a grade 1 in back to back contests. The loss in the toughest 2 year old field of the year is nothing to blush at. This one is tempting on the idea of maturing over the season.

Knightsbridge (+3000)

• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Sire: Nyquist
• Record: 1-1-0-0
• Outlook: Anytime a Mott wins on debut you have to take a second look. The win was resounding at Churchill Downs and the figure came back very solid amongst current 2 year olds. Bill Mott is one of the best at bringing horses along. This one is very interesting as an under the radar type for a future wager.

Honor Marie (+3500)

• Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
• Sire: Honor Code
• Record: 3-2-1-0
• Outlook: The horse took down the Kentucky Jockey Club on Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill Downs. The positive sign is that bettors can rest assured that the horse can handle the track. The question that remains is what did this field represent? It is positive to see the horse with 3 straight improving figures especially since each has been at a progressively longer distance.

The Wine Steward (+5000)

• Trainer: Mike Maker
• Sire: Vino Rosso
• Record: 4-3-1-0
• This one hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Early indications are that this one may try the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. The good news for this horse is that he has been ultra consistent with speed figures. You know what you’re going to get. If you project this one to take a step forward at 3 the time is right to get in on this Vino Rosso colt. The red flag is that Maker is known for his work in the claiming game and grass stakes. Not that he can’t win the big one on dirt, but he just doesn’t have the same gravitas as some of the other big-name trainers.

New York

Fierceness (+1000)

• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Sire: City of Light
• Record: 3-2-0-0
• Outlook: Fierceness is definitely a talented 2 year old winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The question with this one will be how he comes along. Doubters will say he’s just precocious and his rivals will soon catch up. However, its hard to ignore that he has veteran trainer Todd Pletcher in his corner. He definitely knows how to bring horses along.

Dornoch (+1400)

• Trainer: Danny Gargan
• Sire: Good Magic
• Record: 4-2-2-0
• Outlook: Add the Remsen to the tally. The race was impressive with Dornoch fighting back on the inside, but the rail seemed to be the place to run that day so hard to know if it was track or horse. Sierra Leone and Drum Roll Please weren’t good enough on the day.

Sierra Leone (+1600)

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Sire: Gun Runner
• Record: 2-1-1-0
• Outlook: If you believe the figure makers this one ran a better Remsen than the winner. If you like the New York circuit in 2024, this might be the value coming out of the Remsen, but it’s a wait and see for me.

Nutella Fella (+5000)

• Trainer: Gary Contessa
• Sire: Runhappy
• Record: 2-2-0-0
• Outlook: This one took to the stretch out well enough though didn’t take a huge step forward. Contessa isn’t of the pedigree of some of the other trainers on the list, but he is capable of getting a horse ready for a big race now and again. Too short a price on a lot of question marks.

Rhyme Schemes (+5000)

• Trainer: Norm Casse
• Sire: Ghostzapper
• Record: 3-2-0-0
• Outlook: In the last effort this one won a grade 2 event. However, the horse has disappeared since August. None of the 3 races have been further than 6 1/2 furlongs and Ghostzapper is usually preferred going short of the Classic distance.

Timberlake (+5000)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Sire: Into Mischief
• Record: 4-2-1-0
• Outlook: Timberlake looked like a legitimate threat after winning the Champagne. The question for this runner was how good has the New York and Kentucky contingents been. After a disappointing finish in the Juvenile, this runner seems like a second tier player. The sire has been one of the hottest in recent breeding crops and Cox is one of the top trainers in the country.

Drum Roll Please (+5000)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Sire: Hard Spun
• Record: 5-2-1-1
• Outlook: Winner of the Jerome by an easy margin, but this one has already lost to Dornoch, Sierra Leonne, and Locked. Not that it is impossible to turn the tables, but Cox tends to leave his superstars in the south. Picking off a suspect field in New York during the dead of winter doesn’t exactly scream future Cox superstar.

Louisiana

Track Phantom (+3500)

• Sire: Quality Road
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Record: 4-2-1-1
• Outlook: Is there anyone better at bringing horses along than Steve Asmussen? America’s winningest trainer got an impressive victory in the Gun Runner just before the Christmas holiday. The run was impressive putting away Snead and Nash, but this guy has a lot going for him. He’s undefeated over a mile, running his top two speed figures at a mile and 1/16. He also broke his maiden going long at Churchill Downs. Could Track Phantom be the curse breaker for Asmussen? Early signs indicate he’s in the mix for that distinction.

Snead (+5000)

• Trainer: Brendan Walsh
• Sire: Nyquist
• Record: 5-2-1-1
• Outlook: The horse did run 2 in his last race after back to back victories. Those looking for positive signal will be optimistic that despite the runner up finish the horse did improve his speed figure which could be an indication that he is still progressing forward. When capping horse races you’re always looking for who will be best next time, not last so that upward trend could be a good thing for this one.

Arkansas

Catching Freedom (+5000)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Sire: Constitution
• Record: 3-2-0-0
• Outlook: Winning the Smarty Jones was a good step after a disappointing 4 in an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. The question remains as to what this one beat in that field at Oaklawn. This one is pointing toward either the Rebel or the Risen Star which will be a much better barometer of where this horse is at in his career.

Florida

Born Noble (+1400)

• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Sire: Constitution
• Record: 1-1-0-0
• Outlook: Winner of a 7 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on December 30. Despite crushing the competition, the Florida path to the Derby has been inconsistent at best. The Gulfstream Park track can be a bit quirky and we still don’t really know what he beat here.

Japan

Amante Bianco (+3000)

• Trainer: Keisuke Miyata
• Sire: Henny Hughes
• Record: 3-2-0-1
• Outlook: Won the Cattleya Stakes in Japan to earn 10 Kentucky Derby points. The Japanese have momentum on the world horse racing stage, but this one is out of a sire who was a champion sprinter which doesn’t fit the mile and an eight distance of the Derby. This one would be the first ever white thoroughbred to compete in the Derby.

Forever Young (+3000 )

• Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
• Sire: Real Steal
• Record: 3-3-0-0
• Outlook: This runner absolutely crushed in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun. The victory left the colt undefeated in three starts and earned him points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The best sign for this runner is that the trainer has been on the Derby trail before and may be able to draw on past experience to get Japan its first Kentucky Derby win.

Other Horses Currently Available

+1000 or Less Odds

• Air Of Defiance (+6000)
• Parchment Party (+6000)
• Lightline (+6500)
• Pilot Commander (+7000)
• Pirate (+7000)
• Hurricane Nelson (+7500)
• Moonlight (+7500)
• Otto The Conqueror (+8000)
• Wine Me Up (+8000)
• Be You (+9000)
• Where’s Chris (+9000)
• Air Cav (+10000)
• Awesome Road (+10000)
• Book’em Danno (+10000)
• Cuban Thunder (+10000)
• Ecoro Neo (+10000)
• General Partner (+10000)
• Generous Tipper (+10000)
• Gold Sweep (+10000)
• Liberal Arts (+10000)
• Mirahmadi (+10000)
• Mystik Dan (+10000)
• Noted (+10000)
• Pastor T (+10000)
• Risk It (+10000)
• Seize The Glory (+10000)
• Self Sufficient (+10000)
• Stronghold (+10000)
• Valentine Candy (+10000)
• West Saratoga (+10000)
• Who Dey (+10000)

Odds Between +12500 to +19500

• Bentomato (+12500)
• Domestic Product (+12500)
• Just Steel (+12500)
• Pass The Hat (+12500)
• Stretch Ride (+12500)
• Agoo (+15000)
• Billal (+15000)
• Catalytic (+15000)
• Deterministic (+15000)
• Glengarry (+15000)
• Informed Patriot (+1500)
• Iridescent (+1500)
• Magic Grant (+1500)
• Merit (+1500)
• Mission Beach (+1500)
• Private Desire (+1500)
• Real Men Violin (+1500)
• Roar Ready (+1500)
• Rocketeer (+1500)
• Secret Chat (+1500)
• Tejon Pass (+1500)
• The Process (+1500)
• Ultra Power (+1500)
• Alder (+17500)
• Coulditbemajic (+17500)
• Dancing Groom (+17500)
• El Grande O (+17500)
• Fifth Avenue (+17500)
• Frankie’s Empire (+17500)
• Go Otto Go (+17500)
• Neat (+17500)
• No More Time (+17500)
• Northern Flame (+17500)
• Orange Diablo (+17500)
• Orb Alpha (+17500)
• Pandagate (+17500)
• Rathmore (+17500)
• Stolen Magic (+17500)
• Union Roll (+17500)
• Wilson Q (+17500)

+20000 or Greater Odds

• Balta (+20000)
• Bergen (+20000)
• Booth (+20000)
• Call Me Andy (+20000)
• Catire Vizcaya (+20000)
• Commissioner Dan (+20000)
• Crazy Mason (+20000)
• Divieto (+20000)
• Edified (+20000)
• General Ledger (+20000)
• Going Mobile (+20000)
• Le Dom Bro (+20000)
• Lucky Jeremy (+20000)
• Mary’s Boy Bolt (+20000)
• Molly’s Town (+20000)
• Next Level (+20000)
• Normandy Hero (+20000)
• Raging Torrent (+20000)
• American Rascal (+25000)
• Bonne Chance (+25000)
• Bye Bye Liam (+25000)
• Footprint (+25000)

Betting News. Along with our handicapping tools which will be available for all of the key preps, we will continue to provide in depth analysis of Derby prep cards.