Kentucky Derby odds: Las Vegas, Churchill vary widely
The differences between Las Vegas fixed odds and national pari-mutuel betting maybe more glaring this week for Kentucky Derby 2024 than they havebeen since the futures market opened in November.
Dornoch, who is not expected to begin his 3-year-old seasonuntil next month in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, maintained his hold on thefavorite’s role in Nevada. The Remsen (G2) winner held firm at plus 850, or17-2, at Circa Sports and drifted from plus 900 to plus 975, or from 9-1 to39-4, at Caesars Sportsbook, according to the odds showing on Nevada bettingapps Wednesday morning.
In the national pari-mutuels being run this week byChurchill Downs, Dornoch was no better than the joint third choice among the 39individual horses named for pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Morning-linewriter Mike Battaglia made him 15-1 for the pool that will be open from Fridayat noon to Sunday at 6 p.m. EST.
Locked, whose start in last weekend’s Sam F. Davis (G3) wasscrapped by trainer Todd Pletcher because of a reported fever, was Battaglia’s 10-1 individual favoritein the KDFW. Conversely, the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) who finishedthird in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was 25-1 on Wednesday at Circa and 15-1 atCaesars.
Aside from the deeper pool of betting choices available virtuallyaround the clock every day in Nevada, the biggest difference between thefixed-odds market and the national pari-mutuels is the lack of exposure in theKDFW. The Nevada odds are influenced in no small measure by money already bet sinceNovember at Caesars and since December at Circa.
This also will be the first KDFW without the influence of BobBaffert horses who might have been candidates for transfer to eligibletrainers. Since it was reported those horses would not be on the move thisyear, the all-others option in the KDFW will not include them.
On the same token, Las Vegas bookmakers already can count winsfor themselves on bets they took for Baffert horses such as Nysos, who would havebeen their current favorite if he had been eligible for the Derby. Caesarsoddsmaker Paul Bach estimated 15 percent of his shop’s futures bets had come inon Baffert 3-year-olds before they were taken off the board.
The entire futures market will be swayed heavily Saturday bythe running of the Risen Star (G2), the first 50-25-15-10-5 points prep of theseason. The race includes five of the top 14 horses in the Nevada futures, Track Phantom with best odds of 15-1, Hall of Fame 18-1, Sierra Leone18-1, Honor Marie 40-1 and Resilience 40-1.
The KDFW will close before Sunday’s running of the SunlandPark Derby (G3), a 20-10-6-4-2 points prep. Likely favorite Stronghold, who wassecond last out in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), was 90-1 on Wednesday in LasVegas and 99-1 on the KDFW morning line.
Shown with their fixed odds Wednesday morning at CaesarsSportsbook and Circa Sports in Nevada as well as the morning line in pool 4 ofthe nationwide, pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager, these are the 194betting options available for Kentucky Derby 2024. They are shown in order oftheir best odds among the three pools.
