Lakers vs. Grizzlies Game 6 pick: NBA odds, prediction

Just when it looked like the Lakers might cruise to a five-game series victory in the first round of this year’s NBA playoffs, the Grizzlies roared back for an impressive win in Game 5 to keep their season alive.

Now the series shifts back to Los Angeles, where the hosts are dealing as modest favorites to close out this series in six games.

As we’ve seen over the last week, though, this one could be a blowout in either direction or even come down to the final seconds.

Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds

• Lakers -4.5 (-110), moneyline -210
• Grizzlies +4.5 (-110), moneyline +170
• O/U 220.5 (-110)

Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction and analysis

(10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)

We’ve backed the Lakers in every game in this series to this point, which paid off for us in three of the first four contests.

But after a lackluster effort from Los Angeles in Game 5, which came on the heels of a coin-flip result in Game 4, it’s tough to justify laying the points here in a tricky spot for Friday’s hosts.

The same can be said for taking the points on the Grizzlies, who have looked like the inferior team for much of this series even after Wednesday’s blowout win.

Memphis was the lesser team over the back half of the regular season, and its lack of interior size looms large as a potential exploit for the Lakers at any given moment.

So, which side should you bet on Friday? Neither.

The real value is on the total.

Los Angeles’ offense looked gassed by the end of Game 5, which followed that frenetic overtime affair two days earlier.

At one point, the Lakers scored just two points over a nearly seven-minute period that saw the game slip away, and they shot just 40.2% from the floor and 25.6% from deep by the time the final buzzer sounded.

We also saw one of the worst postseason scoring efforts ever from LeBron James (15 points, 29.4%), who struggled with his shot in Game 4, too.

The result on Wednesday was his team’s second game under 100 points this series, and Los Angeles’ offensive rating in the first round (107.9) is the fifth-worst among all 16 playoff teams.

Still, it’s better than what we’ve seen from the Grizzlies (106.9), whose offense hasn’t looked right since Ja Morant’s return.

Over the last three games, Memphis has enjoyed a combined 60.7 points per game from Morant and running mate Desmond Bane, who have needed nearly 50 shots per game to get there.

Meanwhile, the rest of the team has averaged just 48.7 points per game, and only Jaren Jackson Jr. (18 points) scored in double figures among the supporting cast in Game 5.

That’s quietly been an issue all season long, though it’s exacerbated in this series by a terrible shooting display from Dillon Brooks (10.6 PPG, 30.3%) and a less-than-assertive effort from Jackson (18.8 PPG, 45.1%), who hasn’t cracked 20 points or taken more than 15 shots since his 31-point effort in Game 1.

Betting on the NBA?

Both of these teams have struggled mightily to shoot from three, and while the Lakers have had more success scoring inside against the Grizzlies’ thinned frontcourt, they’ve also expended a ton of energy to do so.

That won’t get any easier with limited rest between Wednesday’s Game 5 in Memphis and Friday’s Game 6 in Los Angeles.

It all adds up to an appetizing under spot in a series that’s already gone under three times in five games – which would have been 4-for-5 if not for overtime in Game 4.

With Friday’s total hovering around the same number we’ve seen this entire round, the best play here is to fade both offenses in a game that’s otherwise hard to predict.