Lakers vs Grizzlies NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

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16 April 2023

Lakers vs Grizzlies NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Lakers are underdogs against the Grizzlies in Game 1. If they want to win, they'll need an outstanding effort from LeBron. He should be a major contributor, though perhaps not in the area most people expect, as our NBA betting picks outline.

There’s been so much hype around the Los Angeles Lakers heading into the NBA Playoffs, you kind of forget that L.A. is just the No. 7 seed when it takes on the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference quarterfinals.

The Lakers and Grizzlies tip off their opening-round series this afternoon, and while the Lakers may not believe they’re underdogs, the NBA odds definitely do. Memphis is installed as a four-point home favorite inside FedExForum for Game 1.

Since revamping the roster in mid-February, Los Angeles has been one of the best teams in the NBA, riding a 19-8 SU mark in its last 27 games (15-12 ATS), including the come-from-behind play-in tournament win over Minnesota to locked up the seventh seed earlier this week.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 1 and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs Grizzlies on Sunday, April 16.

Lakers vs Grizzlies best odds

Lakers vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Playoff LeBron used to be a yearly occurrence, but since joining the Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James’ postseason appearances are about as frequent as the John Wick films: one every couple of years.

But while it’s been minute since the Chosen One laced them up in the tournament, we can’t forget just how fantastic James can be when the playoff pressure mounts.

Not only has LeBron risen to the occasion, but he’s also lifted his teammates to another level come playoff time. That’s been especially true with his assist totals in the back half of his storied career.

Since his second stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2014-15, James has gone from go-to-guy to playmaker, averaging 8.3 assists per postseason game (versus 6.4 in his first nine playoffs). That’s pumped up to 8.8 dimes per outing over his past three playoff runs.

James has learned to lean into this supporting staff as he ages, with those Cleveland and L.A. teams boasting some capable complementary pieces. And this year’s Lakers squad is no different. Anthony Davis is now the No. 1 option, and D’Angelo Russell and some talented guards can cash in those passes for points.

Since returning to action in late March, James has amassed six or more assists in eight of his last nine games. His assist prop for Game 1 versus the Grizzlies is at 6.5 (Over +105), and I have him projected at 7.27 assists. I believe his past playoff performances could pump this up closer to eight assists Sunday afternoon. That positive expected value looks even better when you consider the matchup with the Grizzlies.

Memphis is a very good defensive team, especially on its own floor. The Grizzlies are young, athletic, and perhaps dumb/cocky enough to attack LeBron with an aggressive approach. Defensive agitator Dillon Brooks has already been putting in the ground work for his impending matchup with James, talking a little subtle smack before the series.

Brooks’ “in your shorts” style could leave little space for LeBron to get clean looks and force the ball out of his hands, but all that attention opens the window for James to hurt the Grizzlies in other ways – like setting up his teammates. The Grizzlies allow the fourth most assists per game in the NBA (26.4), along with the highest opponent assist per field goal rate (0.649).

My best bet: James Over 6.5 assists (+105)

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Lakers vs Grizzlies spread analysis

Following the Lakers’ overtime victory against Minnesota in the play-in tournament on Tuesday, bookies installed L.A. as a three-point road underdog for Game 1 in Memphis.

That spread made a move to Grizzlies -3.5 on Thursday and has bounced between that spot and -4 ever since. As of Sunday morning, a number of sharper online markets are higher on Memphis as a four-point chalk, but one Vegas books is dealing a three-point spread for Game 1.

The Grizzlies overcame a lot on and off the court in the second half of the schedule, with star guard Ja Morant suspended and away from the team for nine games in March, in which the team fought for a 6-3 SU record. Upon his return, the Grizzlies finished the regular season on a 7-4 SU run (4-7 ATS), with three of those four losses coming on the road.

Memphis is one of the best home-court teams in the NBA, finishing the regular season with a league-high net rating of 10.6 inside FedExForum. The Grizzlies own a 35-6 SU count and 23-17-1 ATS record as hosts this season.

That includes a 121-109 win over Los Angeles, covering as nine-point faves on Feb. 28. However, the Lakers were without both James and Russell for that matchup. The same stars were missing when Los Angeles beat a Morant-less Memphis squad 112-103 at home, covering as a 1.5-point home underdogs on March 7.

The Lakers are 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS since James returned to action in late March, with the trio of LeBron, Russell, and Davis complementing the stingy L.A. defense with plenty of points down the stretch.

Los Angeles owned an offensive rating of 120.0 in the final nine games of the regular season, but ran into issues during the play-in game with the Timberwolves. It shot just 41% from the floor, including 10-for-31 from beyond the arc, and coughed the ball up 20 times in an ugly 108-102 overtime victory.

Lakers vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for Game 1 between the Lakers and Grizzlies hit the board as big as 229.5 points, and shrunk to as low as 226.5 before setting in at 227. As of Sunday morning, however, this total can be had as high as 228 at some online markets.

The last two matchups between Memphis and Los Angeles went 0-1-1 Over/Under with plenty of firepower missing from those lineups in the way of James, Russell, and Morant. The Lakers saw an uptick in output with their two stars in the mix and closed the regular season on an eight-game Over tear before a dud of a game in Minnesota this week.

The Grizzlies finished 6-5 Over/Under in their last 11 games with Morant back in the mix (though he did sit two games in that span). Memphis owns the best homecourt defensive rating in the Association (107.4) and limited visiting teams to 111.6 points on less than 46% shooting per game since the All-Star break.

Before the All-Star break, both Memphis and L.A. ranked among the quicker tempos in the NBA, but have slipped down the pace ratings in the homestretch of the sked, with more moderate ratings of 100.82 and 100.74 respectively (versus 101.79 and 102.37). The pace of Sunday’s series opener could really come down to L.A.’s issues with turnovers.

Both offenses thrive in transition, and the Grizzlies are especially good at turning defense into offense, scoring 17.7 points off turnovers per game. The Lakers have been known to get careless with the ball and are coming off a 20-turnover outing in the slim win over Minnesota, allowing the T-Wolves to transform those mistakes into 19 easy points.