Leeds v Manchester United tips: Super Sunday best bets and preview
Just four days on from a rip-roaring draw at Old Trafford, managerless Leeds host Manchester United at 2pm on Super Sunday. Joe Townsend previews it, providing four best bets.
Boring isn't it, teams meeting twice in such quick succession in the league. Not if your Manchester United, they like it.
Not content with playing Crystal Palace away from home last weekend just 10 days after hosting them, they now travel to Leeds with Wednesday's fightback very much fresh in the memory.
Second-half goals from Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho wiped out the managerless visitors' 2-0 advantage to deny them a shock win.
The 2-2 draw did end the Red Devils' 13-match winning home run, but it will likely be only a minor hiccup for Erik ten Hag's side especially given that they warranted three points according to expected goals (xG: MNU 2.04-0.87 LEE).
Alongside what looks to have been an overreaction in the 1X2 market following Leeds' midweek upturn following Jesse Marsch's sacking is the notion that by finding the net twice in one game, the Whites are now a credible goal threat.
Leeds have failed to create more than 1.0 expected goals (xG) in any of their previous three fixtures, and in five of their seven matches since the restart.
Four of those five games came against teams currently in the top seven: Manchester City, Newcastle, Brentford and Manchester United. Across those fixtures they averaged a paltry 0.60 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
The 6/4 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' is therefore advised.
An added benefit of this angle as opposed to Manchester United clean sheet is, while improbable, the potential for a backs-to-the-wall, narrow Leeds' victory - the only way a home win looks likely to occur.
- Expected goal involvements (xGI) = xG (expected goals) + xA (expected assists)
Brought in by United to fill the void left by Christian Eriksen's three-month injury lay-off, Sabitzer was excellent on his full debut in the reverse fixture, racking up an impressive 0.62 xGI.
The midfielder had three attempts on goal - forcing Illan Meslier into a good save, seeing one effort go narrowly wide and blazing a glaring opportunity over the bar on the volley when well placed 12 yards out.
But it was not just as a goal threat that he impressed, dictating play from deep and carving out several opportunities for his team-mates.
Leeds v Man Utd best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester United to win at 10/11 (General)
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 6/4 (Betfair, BetVictor)
- 1pt Marcel Sabitzer to score or assist at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime at 15/2 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Leeds 0-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (10/02/23)
