Leistikow's game preview, prediction for Iowa football vs. Nebraska

For 25 years as Iowa’s head coach, Kirk Ferentz has been a master at finding motivation for his team in almost any situation.

Get blown out on the road and come home to face a No. 2-ranked team? Hello, 14-13 upset of 2016 Michigan.

Get off to an 0-2 start with program turmoil and about to face a team that just beat Michigan? Hello, 49-7 onslaught against 2020 Michigan State.

Go into Ames against a top-10 opponent with ESPN’s "College GameDay" on the scene? Hello, 27-17 domination of 2021 Iowa State.

But the situation Ferentz is about to face has been rare and is not in his comfort zone. How to take a Hawkeye team that has accomplished a major goal, then turn around the following week to go on the road in a game that means very little in the greater picture?

The majority of our Hawkeye text-group questions this week about Iowa’s Black Friday matchup had to do with the Hawkeyes’ motivation, with a Big Ten Championship Game berth clinched and no shot at a Rose Bowl or College Football Playoff bid. Obviously if Iowa was to win one of the next two games, it’d take the Big Ten title trophy over the Heroes Trophy.

There is no scientific way to predict how Iowa plays Friday, but we can point to history. While not apples-to-apples, the 2015 trip to Nebraska had similar properties. Iowa was 11-0 and coming off a home win vs. Purdue that clinched the Big Ten West. Nebraska was 5-6 and under a first-year head coach in Mike Riley.

Iowa went into Lincoln that day and won, 28-20, despite being outgained in total yardage, 433-250. The Hawkeyes intercepted Tommy Armstrong four times, with Parker Hesse pulling one in for a touchdown and Josey Jewell’s late pick sealing a 12-0 regular season.

Here we go again. The 5-6 Huskers, under new coach Matt Rhule and needing one win to clinch a bowl trip after a season full of close losses, should have plenty of motivation on their side. But a loss to Nebraska in this spot wouldn’t spoil Iowa’s season like it might have in 2015.

Let’s get to the game-preview questions from readers.

Can Iowa shut down Purdy? (And haven’t we asked this before?)

Ha! No, the San Francisco 49ers quarterback who posted a perfect rating Sunday isn’t starting for Nebraska. But Brock Purdy’s little brother is. Chubba Purdy, who has battled a groin injury this year, looked pretty good in getting the starting quarterback nod for the Huskers at Wisconsin. Purdy rushed for 105 yards and completed 15 of 23 passes for 169 yards in Madison but couldn’t hang on to a 14-0 lead and threw an overtime interception in a 24-17 loss.

Purdy has excellent scrambling and running ability, as he showed with an improvised 55-yard touchdown run Saturday. And he’s obviously got some positive QB DNA, considering Brock was a four-year starter at Iowa State (who Iowa beat in 2019 and 2021). And he’ll be playing at home.

“We’ve got to make sure we keep our eyes on the quarterback, keep him contained," Iowa cornerback Jermari Harris said. "Also, they do some things we haven’t seen in a while. It’s going to be an interesting battle. Just a lot of pro-style. Their coach comes from the NFL. I don’t think we’ve seen a quarterback as athletic. … He has ability.”

But to circle back to the original question, how will Iowa’s defense respond?

Well, with Cooper DeJean out for the year, the best way to attack the Hawkeyes is through the air. Jermari Harris played excellent in the No. 1 cornerback role, but Deshaun Lee was one of the lowest-graded performers for the Hawkeyes by Pro Football Focus in the 15-13 win over Illinois. Nebraska likely will try to test Lee. What the Hawkeyes cannot do is allow Purdy to beat them with his legs. The last time they faced a mobile quarterback, Rutgers’ Gavin Wimsatt did next to nothing. With linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson playing great and cash defender Sebastian Castro on the prowl, Iowa is well-positioned to contain that running-QB element. Jackson said Tuesday the player responsible for Purdy will change depending on the defensive call.

Brock Purdy was more of a drop-back passer, but Iowa did force him into three interceptions in 2021 at Iowa State … and even got him benched for Hunter Dekkers late in that game. Being physical with Brock early was key to that performance; let’s see if Iowa tries to lay a few hard hits on Chubba this Friday.

What can Iowa's offense do to take another positive step in preparation for the Big Ten title game?

This game is more about maintaining confidence with some emerging pieces – quarterback Deacon Hill, running back Kaleb Johnson and wide receiver Kaleb Brown in particular.

All three had important roles in Saturday’s win against Illinois. Brown had seven catches on 10 targets. One thing Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz can do is keep feeding Brown. Nebraska showed against Wisconsin that it will try to attack the run and make the opposing quarterback throw, and now Iowa at least has a developing playmaker in Brown to take pressure off the running game.

Nebraska has the No. 2-ranked rushing defense (behind Penn State, ahead of Michigan), and this factor is a big piece of the Rhule rebuild in Lincoln that’s centered on physical play. Iowa’s offensive-line health is a question mark Friday, but showing the potential to stick with the run and avoid negative plays (only one handoff went for negative yardage vs. Illinois) would be another step forward for the Hawkeye offense.

And by the way, Iowa has inched up to 245.4 yards per game this season. That is still by far last in FBS (Kent State is 132nd, at 261.7). The Hawkeyes’ historically low average last year was 251.6 yards per game. Iowa would need 322 yards Friday to jump past last year’s average.

Will Ferentz use this rare opportunity to do something unusual, such as a fake field goal, double-reverse pass, etc.?

A really interesting question that ties into our lead item about motivation. Will the game circumstances cause Iowa to play loose … and coach loose, too? I like the idea especially of Brian Ferentz, in his final year as offensive coordinator, throwing in some wrinkles that you know he has in the playbook. And no, I wouldn’t worry about burning through anything for the postseason. Have some fun with the situation and relish the opportunity.

That being said, Brian Ferentz has called some excellent games against the Huskers. That includes in 2017, in his first year as OC, when Iowa went into Lincoln and walked out with 505 yards of offense and a 56-14 victory. Then in 2019, he had a perfect reverse call in his pocket and pulled it out early to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for a 45-yard touchdown less than four minutes into Iowa’s 27-24 win. Nebraska was 5-6 that year, too, and needed a win for Scott Frost to go bowling … but Keith Duncan delivered a last-second field goal and blew a kiss to the Huskers sideline.

Maybe Brian Ferentz will have a blow-a-kiss type play call ready and waiting Friday. And LeVar Woods, a western Iowa product, is totally overdue to run a fake punt or field goal.

Chad Leistikow's pick for Iowa vs. Nebraska football game

No. 16 Iowa (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) at Nebraska (5-6, 3-5)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m. Friday, CBS, Nebraska by 2½ points

Where Iowa has the edge: Nebraska is the fifth bottom-20 national offense that Iowa has faced this year; the previous four (Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers) totaled just 28 points (seven field goals, one touchdown) on offense. As usual, Tory Taylor is a major punting advantage (he averages 48.2 yards per boot; Nebraska averages 40.7).

Where Nebraska has the edge: The Cornhuskers allow just 2.83 yards per rush and own a home crowd that will be revved up by animosity toward Iowa and the goal of reaching six wins for the first time since 2016.

Prediction: Iowa 13, Nebraska 9 … The Cornhuskers have lost three straight games in excruciating fashion and now face a team known for winning close games. The Huskers have fumbled 28 times (seriously) and lost 13 of them and thrown 15 interceptions. Iowa gets its minus-3 turnover margin back to even and rides its stellar defense to the victory.

This weekend's other Big Ten games

(Record vs. spread: 3-4 last week, 46-38-1 season; all times CT; rankings are from previous week)

No. 12 Penn State (9-2, 6-2) at Michigan State (4-7, 2-6)

Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m. Friday, NBC, Penn State by 20

Prediction: Penn State quarterback Drew Allar's status after his injury against Rutgers is something to monitor. If the Nittany Lions win and look good, they could become a New Year's Six bowl candidate, possibly opening the Citrus Bowl for Iowa. This game ends a difficult season for the Spartans, who will have a new coach in 2024. Penn State 24, Michigan State 14

No. 2 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0) at No. 3 Michigan (11-0, 8-0)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m. Saturday, FOX, Michigan by 3½

Prediction: The most anticipated Michigan-Ohio State game ever? It's hard to repeat No. 1 vs. No. 2 in 2006 on the week that Bo Schembechler passed away. But this might top it. No Jim Harbaugh for one more week after the sign-stealing scandal. The winner almost certainly goes to the College Football Playoff, with both as three-TD favorites vs. Iowa in Indianapolis. Ohio State with two years of revenge on its mind. Two elite defenses. J.J. McCarthy on one side, Marvin Harrison Jr. on the other. Incredible energy, animosity and even hate surround this clash, which hopefully comes down to the final moments. Ohio State 21, Michigan 20

Indiana (3-8, 1-7) at Purdue (3-8, 2-6)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m. Saturday, BTN, Purdue by 2½

Prediction: It sounds like Purdue quarterback Hudson Card will play, after missing last week's loss at Northwestern, in one of the most meaningless battles for the Old Oaken Bucket ever. Purdue 20, Indiana 17

Northwestern (6-5, 4-4) at Illinois (5-6, 3-5)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m. Saturday, BTN, Illinois by 5½

Prediction: Northwestern was pretty lucky to beat Purdue, winning despite allowing the Boilermakers (playing without their starting quarterback and top pass rusher) to run for 303 yards. The Illini will have plenty of motivation to become bowl-eligible and have far more firepower on both sides of the football. Illinois 31, Northwestern 14

Wisconsin (6-5, 4-4) at Minnesota (5-6, 3-5)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m. Saturday, FS1, Wisconsin by 1½

Prediction: This game has Iowa-Nebraska vibes, with the Badgers looking to go on the road to keep their season-finishing trophy rival out of a bowl game. P.J. Fleck's defense has fallen apart, having allowed an average of 37.7 points during a three-game losing streak. If Braelon Allen plays, the Badgers are the pick. Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 17

Maryland (6-5, 3-5) at Rutgers (6-5, 3-5)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m. Saturday, BTN, Maryland by 1½

Prediction: After starting the season 6-2, Rutgers has one offensive touchdown (which came vs. Ohio State) in its last three games. Maryland offered an inspired performance vs. Michigan and has won the last two meetings vs. Rutgers by a combined 77-16. Maryland 24, Rutgers 16

Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has covered sports for 29 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Join Chad's text-message group (free for subscribers) at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. .