Maple Leafs vs. Lightning same-game parlay picks Oct. 21: Bet on Toronto to score but Tampa to keep it close
Toronto's five-game road trip continues on Saturday night as the Maple Leafs face the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.
The pregame narrative: This is the first matchup between Toronto and Tampa since last year's opening-round playoff victory for the Leafs. We like Toronto to put up a respectable goal total but for Steven Stamkos and the Bolts to keep it close.
NHL oddsas of 9:25 a.m. on 10/21/2023.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning same-game parlay
Parlay: Leafs over 2.5 goals + Stamkos 1+ points + Lightning +1.5 (+210)
Maple Leafs over 2.5 goals (-305): Scoring has been a feast-or-famine ordeal for the Leafs so far this year.
After potting 13 goals over their first two games, they've come back to score just one goal apiece in their past two. But tonight presents a good opportunity for Toronto to regain its scoring touch.
Tampa Bay has allowed the most goals per 60 at even strength (4.44), per Natural Stat Trick, which suggests that Toronto may not need any power play tallies to clear this number. The Lightning's xGA/60 is much lower (3.25), but it's still seventh-highest in the league.
All four of Tampa's opponents have scored three or more goals this season.
Other parlay picks
Stamkos 1+ points (-225): It's Year 16 for Stamkos, and he hasn't skipped a beat.
The Markham, Ontario, native has a point in all three games this year, with two goals and three assists in total. That's after notching 190 points over 162 games in the two prior seasons.
Dating back to 2019-20, Stamkos has been a Leafs killer, too. He has faced Toronto 22 times in that span (regular season and playoffs), cashing this prop 16 times and registering 25 total points.
Lightning +1.5 (-132): Although Tampa has allowed its opponents to score in bunches, the team has still covered this line in three of five games. And the Lightning are 2-0-0 so far at home.
Toronto has only covered a -1.5 puck line in one of four games, and it failed to do so consistently against the Lightning last season.
Including the playoffs, Tampa Bay covered a +1.5 puck line in seven of nine matchups against Toronto in 2022-23.
