Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall

The Edmonton Oilers are graduating five prospects from junior and college hockey to pro this fall.

There are no first-round selections, no second-round selections and no prospects who have a chance to play NHL games in the year to come.

The long run of lottery and No. 1 picks is now a distant bell. The last top-10 selection (Philip Broberg in 2019, No. 8) was an NHL rookie in 2022-23.

For the organization, finding talent from deeper in the draft has been made more difficult by trading myriad selections in an effort to push the NHL team to a championship.

Even under these difficult circumstances, it’s vital that the organization graduate and develop quality talent.

The 2022-23 rookie pros

A year ago, Edmonton’s system produced five players for the Bakersfield Condors (four forwards and a goaltender). The results were varied but overall it was a strong showing from a solid rookie crop.

Graduating juniors Xavier Bourgault (1.74 pts-game in the QMJHL) and Tyler Tullio (1.32 pts-game in the OHL) were bona fide offensive contributors.

College grads Carter Savoie (1.16 with Denver Pioneers of the NCHC) and Noah Philp (1.38 pts-game with the Alberta Golden Bears) were impact forwards with their respective teams.

Goalie Ryan Fanti had a terrific college career with Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC), spending his final season as the team’s starter while delivering a .929 save percentage.

Here are the AHL numbers for those rookie skaters in 2022-23:

For each player in the group, offence was less impressive in Year 1 in the AHL than expected, but Bourgault, Philp and Tullio impressed enough to project as future NHL players.

Bourgault was especially noticeable for his two-way play and even-strength outscoring.

Savoie battled injuries, but with the other rookies delivering somewhat disappointing point totals, still has an opportunity in the coming year to impress.

Fanti had a tough time in both the ECHL (.894 SV% in 34 games) and AHL (.884 SV% in eight games).

All but Philp will return in 2023-24. Philp was qualified by the Oilers but has decided to retire from the game.

The 2023-24 rookie pros

Matvey Petrov is the headliner this fall, despite the fact Edmonton selected him in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. Blame the pandemic and lack of scouts with eyes on the young winger. Petrov’s progression since draft day is strong.

Goal share totals are even strength via Pick224.com

Petrovi is a right shot who played left wing in junior. The organization will figure out his pro position in Bakersfield.

His scoring rates are just a little ahead of Tullio’s a year ago, the two men played in the same league. NHL equivalencies suggest the Russian will score 0.64 pts-game in the AHL.

Tullio’s rookie season came in lower than projected (0.59 pts-game projected to .41 actual pts-game). Condors coach Colin Chaulk seems to have a difficult time maximizing offence from graduating prospects.

If Petrov plays in 70 AHL games next season, fans can expect him to score between 32-44 points. He could run those totals much higher with prime time power-play opportunities.

Max Wanner has the look of being another pandemic home run. Once again, his availability so late in the 2021 draft came due to a lack of viewings by the NHL scouting community. A WHL scout told me Wanner is “ long and rangy and plays with a miserable bite.” The Oilers have been searching for such a player over several years.

Goal share totals are even strength via Pick224.com

Wanner’s goal share is impressive. His offence is perhaps overrated in these numbers, but he projects as a strong two-way defender with NHL top-four potential.

Edmonton needs that kind of player, as the prospect pool currently boasts Beau Akey, Luca Munzenberger and little else matriculating outside pro hockey.

As is the case with Petrov, a seventh-round selection like Wanner entering pro hockey with any kind of buzz is breaking news. Wanner’s arrival is much anticipated because of his skill set and performance in 2022-23.

Jayden Grubbe is a recent acquisition made necessary by the retirement of Philp. Grubbe projects as a checking right-handed centre in pro hockey, bringing size, aggressive forechecking and skill to his game.

Goal share totals are even strength via Pick224.com

Grubbe is a good skater and there are no obvious red flags. His outscoring totals are good but are not in the range of Petrov and Wanner. The scouting buzz on the player and the transaction suggests Edmonton may have landed a player the industry believes could develop into an NHL player.

It’s unlikely he’ll have the impact of Philp (who was 24 in his rookie AHL season, Grubbe is 20) but the junior totals suggest he’s ready for the AHL.

Jake Chiasson is the final member of the group turning pro from the pandemic draft in 2021. Unlike Petrov and Wanner, his production and outscoring did not spike. He enters pro hockey with some questions about where he’ll land on the depth chart and what role he can fill.

Goal share totals are even strength via Pick224.com

His post-draft career involved injuries and shy scoring. He is a two-way winger with some size (6-foot-2, 180 pounds) and passing ability.

If he can overcome injuries and gain some traction offensively, Chiasson could move up the depth chart beginning this fall in Bakersfield.

Carl Berglund was a late spring free-agent signing out of UMass-Lowell (H-East). He has size (6-foot-2, 195 pounds) and two-way acumen. His college scoring numbers (12-15-27 in 36 games) were good enough to lead his team.

The Oilers have been collecting older college centres (Philp, Joel Maatta and more recently at the 2023 draft Matt Copponi) in hopes of having one develop quickly. It’s a solid strategy, and at worst the Condors will get a steady supply of good pivots to help develop young wingers in the AHL.

Berglund’s shooting percentage (10 percent) and shots per game (3.1) don’t imply big production, so a checking role is most likely. College centres can surprise (Chris VandeVelde is an example from Oilers draft history) but it will be an uphill battle for Berglund. He is already at an advanced age (24 in January) for a pro prospect.

Making the call

The lead story for prospects heading to Bakersfield this fall involves the lack of a first- or second-round selection.

Grubbe, acquired from the New York Rangers, is the highest pick (third round, No. 65 in 2021) in the group.

As dismal as it sounds, there’s substantial talent on the way to Bakersfield.

Petrov is the No. 3 prospect in the system, Wanner No. 6 and Grubbe No. 11 overall currently in the Oilers prospect pool.

The 2021 Oilers draft has already graduated Bourgault with Munzenberger and Shane Lachance still to come.

It’s the later selections, Petrov and Wanner and Chiasson, who are the most anticipated graduates in the Oilers organization for 2023-24.

The most surprising part of the story is Petrov and Wanner arrive in pro hockey from the depths of the draft as real NHL prospects. That’s the lead entering training camp this fall.

It’s vital Petrov and Wanner find playing time, an opportunity to develop and quality linemates.

The Oilers are razor thin on real NHL prospects. The scouts delivered against heavy odds, the burden now falls squarely on the Condors coaching staff.