Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?

The 2021 NHL Draft was the most unusual of the modern (since 1979) era.

NHL teams were mostly flying blind in selecting players. Powerful leagues like the OHL didn’t play due to the pandemic. Some of the best prospects who were eligible for the draft didn’t get to play enough to develop or show their abilities.

It was both a challenge and an opportunity for all teams.

The Edmonton Oilers put together a list that focused on forwards. Specific areas addressed included skill (Xavier Bourgault, Matvey Petrov), power (Shane Lachance) and a grinding style (Jake Chiasson).

The club also selected two defencemen (Luca Munzenberger and Max Wanner) who built reputations for suppressing goals.

Two years later, things are looking good for several of the team’s six selections.

Wanner, chosen in the depths (seventh round) of the draft, has emerged as the top defensive prospect in the system (now that Philip Broberg has graduated to the NHL).

What do the Oilers have in Wanner? Here’s a look.

The scouting report

On his draft day, Wanner was described as a shutdown defender, a good athlete and a player who would take time to develop.

He’s come a long way as an NHL prospect. I asked a WHL scout to assess Wanner now, as he graduates to pro hockey:

“In 21-22, him coming back from injury in time for the playoffs made a huge impact. His nightly impact was even more significant this past season. He’s long and rangy and plays with a miserable bite. I don’t see him as an offensive player in pro and do question a bit at times how he sees himself re: some cheating and decisions with the puck and shot selection. But with some coaching, he’s got the goods. To me, he has all the markings of a guy who gets an NHL shot at some point and will sink or swim based on his ability to keep up with the pace of it. Given how harsh he is to play against in his giant frame, I don’t mind his odds. The other frame of reference I’ll give you is just how massively improved he is from four years ago. Jump after jump after jump in terms of competency. Where does it end? Who knows. But his trajectory is still rising.”

The scouting report touches on several areas of importance during the period Ken Holland has been general manager. The edgy play and size (6-foot-3, 188 pounds, just turned 20 in March) are more in evidence on the Oilers roster than in the past. Vincent Desharnais on the current Oilers roster is an example.

Offence

His offensive output was an afterthought in all draft day scouting reports, most of the verbal focusing on his raw tools.

Wanner has made strong progress in all areas of the game since draft day. He should not be considered a future power-play quarterback, but he has developed offensively during his junior career. Comparing him to other WHL defencemen taken in his draft year (and played in the league last year) gives us a good idea about his possible future with the puck on his stick. Here are the totals from the 2022-23 season.

There’s a story to tell offensively. Wanner has a plus shot and is aggressive (perhaps too aggressive based on the scouting report) in taking advantage of offensive opportunities. He has potential and is trending in a good direction. It’s important to establish reasonable expectations, and math does a good job if we listen. Here are some former Oilers draft picks who played in the WHL over the past dozen years. This gives a range for Wanner’s possible offensive future. All numbers points-per-game.

Two of the three prospects drafted by Edmonton since 2010 posted numbers similar to Wanner in their draft plus two seasons. That gives us a starting point to project Wanner as an NHL player (should he make it).

Per 82 games in the NHL, Brandon Davidson averaged 4-7-11 boxcars and Martin Marincin averaged 2-10-12.

Desharnais had (five assists in 36 games) a season in 2022-23 which is in the same range as Davidson and Marincin managed per 82 games in their careers.

Wanner may eclipse 10-12 points per 82 games, he could be playing for a high-octane Oilers team in a couple of years. Math is suggesting today that a third-pairing deployment is an appropriate projection for his production level.

Defence

Wanner’s defensive ability is impressive, as shown by his even-strength goal differential. The gap is significant in comparing Wanner to other Moose Jaw Warriors defencemen in 2022-23. Here are the even strength with and without you totals.

When Wanner was on the ice last season, the Warriors scored 60 percent of the goals. That’s championship-level outscoring.

When he was off the ice, Moose Jaw was a non-playoff team in the WHL. Scoring 46 out of 100 goals at even strength is well of the pace.

Wanner was 19 when he posted these numbers, one of the established players in the league. These are impressive numbers even understanding his age and experience level.

The front page

Wanner was involved in an off-ice incident in Edmonton this past winter. In March, the Edmonton Police Service (EPS) said it was “non-criminal” in nature. The WHL suspended Wanner and his teammates in mid-February, but Wanner returned to the ice for 10 playoff games.

The season to come

Wanner enters pro hockey in a great situation. Edmonton’s pro depth chart at right defence has been depleted due to the trades of Ethan Bear and Mike Kesselring over the last two years.

Desharnais and Evan Bouchard have moved up to the NHL, leaving Phil Kemp as the lone natural right-side defender in Bakersfield.

That means opportunity for Wanner.

Here are the even-strength totals for each AHL defenceman under Edmonton’s control last season.

Expect Wanner to begin the 2023-24 season on the third pairing in Bakersfield. He will be paired with a veteran puck mover and begin the process of grinding mistakes out of his game.

He arrived in a strange draft year, but that may have helped the Oilers. More exposure would have allowed other teams’ scouts to view him, and possibly draft Wanner.

He is a right-handed defenceman with strong shutdown abilities. That is an area of need for Edmonton. He needs playing experience and should get plenty in Bakersfield.