Maple Leafs vs. Panthers prop bets: Fade Mitch Marner
The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the surging Florida Panthers on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Mitch Marner is not a consistent source of shots, making the under on his shot prop a wise wager. Matthew Tkachuk is generating plenty of offence and another big night is expected. Lastly, we’re banking on a goal from Carter Verhaeghe.
NHL odds as of 11:11 a.m. on 03/23/2023.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers prop bets
Best Bet: Marner under 2.5 shots (-117)
Marner isn’t peppering puck-stoppers with any sort of regularity, making the under on his shot total a smart bet.
The Maple Leafs’ playmaker only has nine shots on goal in his last five contests, resulting in an average of 1.8 shots per game. As he has for most of the season, Marner is operating as a facilitator, which means he’s looking for the open man instead of the net.
Considering he’s averaging 2.43 shots per game this season, usurping this mark would require a pretty significant effort.
The matchup isn’t overly enticing, either. The Panthers are tied for the 12th-most shots allowed per contest (31.6) this season but have been better as of late. Florida is holding the opposition to just 27.8 shots per game over the team’s last four, per Natural Stat Trick.
Key stat: Marner has gone below this mark in four of his last five contests.
Quick picks
Tkachuk to score 2+ points (+100): Florida’s offensive success revolves around the stellar play of Tkachuk. The talented forward has 15 points in his last six outings, usurping this mark in four of those games.
He’s facing a Maple Leafs team that isn’t defending well, either. They’re allowing the second-most expected goals per 60 (4.06) over the last seven days while owning a rough .887 save percentage during this stretch.
Verhaeghe to score a goal (+132): Verhaeghe is putting a tonne of rubber on goal, totalling 24 shots in his last four outings. Only Brady Tkachuk (25) has more shots over the last week. Many of these shots are translating into goals, as he has four over this run.
Toronto’s goaltending struggles make this an intriguing matchup, and so does Verhaeghe’s ability to generate offence. He’s fourth in expected goals (2.7) and first in scoring chances (30) in the league across the last seven days.
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