Maple Leafs picks and props Dec. 27: Bet on Senators and the over
The Toronto Maple Leafs exit the holiday break with a quick trip to the nation's capital to face the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Toronto avenged a brutal loss with a convincing victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday. Now they face an Ottawa team adjusting to new head coach Jacques Martin. The Senators are my pick on the double chance market while the over seems like a worthwhile wager.
NHL oddsas of 2:17 p.m. ET on 12/26/2023.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Senators
Best Bet: Senators or tie - regulation (-110)
Toronto entered the holiday break with a win, but let's not forget where the team was before that.
The Maple Leafs had just suffered an embarrassing loss, 9-3, to the Buffalo Sabres one game after losing 5-2 to the New York Rangers.
Goaltending has been difficult to figure out with Joseph Woll sidelined. Ilya Samsonov owns an .871 save percentage on the season and has become almost unplayable. Martin Jones' .917 save percentage is respectable, but he has allowed nine goals in his last three outings.
Ottawa's offence is more than capable of capitalizing on poor goaltending. The Senators rank eighth in goals per game (3.41) despite their 12-17-0 record.
The Battle of Ontario has been tightly contested this season. Ottawa and Toronto have split the season series (1-1) thus far, while the former leads on aggregate (9-7).
Key stat: Toronto has failed to win in regulation in 10 of the team's last 15 games.
Quick picks
Over 6.5 goals - regulation (-130): A defensive and goaltending clinics would be a surprise to most when these two teams meet.
Poor puck-stopping continues to hold Ottawa back. The Senators rank a putrid 29th in team save percentage (.884), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Toronto isn't elite between the pipes by any stretch. The Maple Leafs are a pedestrian 17th in save percentage (.897), and that number continues to fall with Woll shelved.
As for scoring, that shouldn't be an issue for either side. Ottawa's offence isn't the only top-10 unit in this game, as Toronto ranks third in goals per game (3.58).
The over on this total has hit in five of Toronto's last six contests and in each of Ottawa's last five.
