Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Bet on Toronto to strike early and often

Ahead of what appears to be a brutal pitching mismatch, the Toronto Blue Jays are sizeable favourites over the Seattle Mariners on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (2-2, 2.84 ERA) kicked off the team’s five-game winning streak in the Bronx last weekend, and now he’ll look to keep it rolling this afternoon against Seattle’s Chris Flexen. Seemingly nothing has gone right for Flexen (0-4, 8.86) so far.

Note: Seattle pitcher Chris Flexen was a late scratch on Saturday, replaced by right-hander Easton McGee.

MLB odds as of 8:55 a.m. ET on 04/29/23.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Blue Jays first to score (-120)

If you’re looking at Gausman’s early-season splits, his 10.80 ERA in the first inning stands out in the worst possible way.

But all of that damage came in one outing, when the Astros blitzed him for seven earned runs in the opening frame of their matchup on April 17.

Otherwise, Gausman has done well to hold teams in check in the early going. With that one-inning implosion included, Gausman has a much more palatable 4.20 ERA in the first three innings of starts this year.

We can’t speak as glowingly about his opponent, Flexen.

All four of Flexen’s foes have put a run or more on the scoreboard in the early going, for a total of 16 runs through three innings. The peripherals are a disaster, too.

We give Toronto a good chance of leading after three innings, but doing so brings a less-than-enticing -167 price tag.

So instead, we’ll put up with the risk associated with Toronto batting second (as the home squad) and bet on Gausman to be in shut-down mode early.

Key stat: Opponents have scored in the first two innings against Chris Flexen in all four of his starts.

Quick pick

Blue Jays first to five runs (-115): Toronto’s team total is set at 5.5 runs (+104) today, which is certainly attainable against Flexen. But we’ve opted for a wager that feels slightly safer, given that we don’t expect Seattle to reach the five-run threshold.

The Mariners have scored no more than five runs in any of their past 11 games, and we don’t expect them to get there against Gausman. Four of his five opponents maxed out at four runs in his outings.

On the flip side, four of Flexen’s five opponents scored seven runs or more.

Even if runs aren’t flowing from the outset, Toronto should be the first team — and quite possibly the only team — to hit this mark.