Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Friday, April 28
It’s not a great time to head up to Canada to face the Toronto Blue Jays. They have won their last four games and done it by a combined score of 25-3. Those four wins have them third in the AL East at 16-9, one of the best records in baseball. The Seattle Mariners have lost their last two and now they have to head into the flames. Seattle is 11-14 which situates them in fourth place in the AL West.
Today, we have a stellar pitching matchup with Luis Castillo on the bump for Seattle and Alek Manoah making the start for Toronto. Castillo is pitching like the ace Seattle traded for last deadline, 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA in five starts. While Manoah has been up and down to start, 1-1 with a 5.13 ERA in five starts.
Despite coming into the series red hot, the Blue Jays aren’t big favorites at home, so let’s take a look at the odds.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total
Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick
It’s Game 1 of a three-game series and we have a Game 1 of a playoff series type pitching matchup. Though his numbers are ugly, last time out Alek Manoah went seven scoreless and gave up just two hits to the Yankees in the Bronx. That’s the type of start that can jumpstart your season and give you ample confidence the rest of the way. It’s also the type of performance that they need out of the guy who is supposed to be their ace. While the self-confidence might be there after a great start, the numbers to make me have confidence in Manoah are not.
Manoah’s expected ERA is 6.99 his strikeout rate is 20th percentile, but he’s never a strikeout pitcher, however, his walk rate is way up to 13.2% which is 17th percentile in the MLB. He’s throwing his fastball less, from 35.9% of the time last season to 28.7% this year, though it’s only allowing a .310 slugging percentage. He’s also throwing his slider more, now his most frequently thrown pitch and hitters are slugging .610 off that pitch so far. There are real reasons to be concerned about Manoah and until those numbers start to look more like they did last season, I’m going to be fading him.
There is no reason to fade Castillo on the other side. He’s dominant, one of the best pitchers in baseball. Despite the Blue Jays bludgeoning the White Sox prior to this series I’m going to fade them in this spot.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
